The weekly case remains bearish as D1 structure and negative momentum align, while H4 weakness adds tactical pressure despite mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/USD has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and negative momentum align, while bearish H4 conditions reinforce pressure but mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility preserve two-sided risk.
The reference D1 close is 1.12097, below the primary resistance at 1.12758 and the secondary resistance at 1.13794. The bearish D1 trend, falling EMA50 and falling SMA200 slopes, together with negative momentum, keep the broader structure under pressure.
H4 remains bearish and places tactical emphasis on the nearby 1.11854 support and 1.1212 resistance, but H4 is subordinate to the D1 thesis. A move through the supplied support or resistance areas would determine whether downside pressure develops or consolidation becomes more prominent.
| Price at last update | 1.12011 as of 10 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.12097 as of 8 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.11638 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 1.12758 |
| Bullish targets | 1.13794, 1.14173 |
| Bearish targets | |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.12820 — One completed D1 close above 1.12820 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/USD during 11–17 October 2026 include Treasury Currency Report. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury Currency Report | 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 | Medium |
Current EUR/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: the trend state is bearish, momentum is negative, and both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. The mixed D1 close sequence introduces hesitation, while bearish H4 conditions provide tactical confirmation rather than an independent weekly signal. Expanding volatility raises the risk of faster tests of established levels without determining direction by itself.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilityexpandingD1 ATR change
Is EUR/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is continued bearish pressure because D1 trend, negative momentum and bearish H4 conditions are aligned. A neutral scenario remains plausible if mixed D1 closes evolve into two-sided consolidation around the supplied levels. A bullish countertrend scenario would require a stronger recovery through the supplied resistance structure and a completed D1 close above 1.1282.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain technical weight if D1 price action recovered through 1.12758 and progressed toward 1.13794, with the structural case strengthened by one completed D1 close above 1.1282.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support for the bullish alternative if price reclaimed the supplied H4 resistance at 1.1212 and then maintained pressure toward the weekly resistance at 1.12758.
- Targets
- 1.13794, 1.14173
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 failed to hold above 1.1212 and D1 remained below 1.12758, leaving the bearish trend and negative momentum dominant.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario would be supported by continued mixed D1 closes, with price remaining between the supplied support at 1.11638 and resistance at 1.12758 rather than producing a clear structural resolution.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would support consolidation if its bearish condition eased without establishing a sustained recovery through 1.12758, leaving the tactical picture conflicted rather than decisively directional.
- Targets
- The neutral path is defined by two-sided interaction between 1.11638 and 1.12758, with 1.1212 and 1.11854 providing the supplied H4 tactical reference points.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close established a clear move beyond the relevant structural boundary, particularly above 1.1282 for the upper-side challenge.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario would gain confirmation if D1 weakness persisted below 1.12758 and pressure developed toward the primary support at 1.11638, while the negative momentum state remained in place.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would add tactical confirmation if it remained below 1.1212 and weakened through the supplied H4 support at 1.11854, aligning short-term structure with the bearish D1 thesis.
- Targets
- Not identified
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken if H4 reclaimed 1.1212 and D1 then recovered through 1.12758, especially if that recovery culminated in one completed D1 close above 1.1282.
“Not identified” means the available analysis did not establish that condition.
EUR/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 1.12097 sits below the primary resistance at 1.12758 and above the primary support at 1.11638. The mixed close sequence signals incomplete directional follow-through, but the bearish trend state, falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, and negative momentum keep the structural balance tilted lower.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bearish, with its close at 1.11892 below the H4 resistance at 1.1212 and above the H4 support at 1.11854. Its negative MACD reading remains tactically consistent with the D1 pressure, while the H4 RSI at 40.8 shows that short-term momentum is weak without independently replacing the D1 framework.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is bearish on the controlling D1 timeframe, with negative momentum, falling moving-average slopes and a mixed close sequence. H4 is also bearish, while expanding volatility indicates a greater potential for faster level tests rather than a directional guarantee.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 11 October 2026.
- RSI25.35Oversold
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands14% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR61.7 pipsExpanding
RSI (14)
Oversold
H4 40.8
D1 RSI at 25.35 reflects weak momentum within the bearish structure, while H4 RSI at 40.8 is also below a neutral reading. Together they support downside pressure but do not by themselves establish the timing or persistence of the move.
- D1 RSI
- 25.35
- H4 RSI
- 40.8
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD remains below its signal line, with a negative histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum state. H4 MACD is negative but its histogram is positive, creating a modest tactical tension that may delay or complicate immediate continuation without overturning the D1 thesis.
- MACD
- -0.009011
- Signal
- -0.007282
- Histogram
- -0.00173
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close at 1.12097 is below the Bollinger middle value of 1.13796 and above the lower value of 1.11417, placing price in the weaker portion of the supplied band. H4 price is below its middle value of 1.12118 and above its lower value of 1.11599, consistent with tactical pressure but not a standalone directional signal.
- Position in band
- 14%
- Band width
- 475.8 pips (4.18%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.14491Price is 239.4 pips below (-2.09%)
- 200 SMA falling1.15979Price is 388.2 pips below (-3.35%)
The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. This creates broad trend alignment with the bearish thesis. H4 also trades below its EMA20 and EMA50, adding tactical confirmation, although the weekly conclusion remains controlled by D1.
- D1 close
- 1.12097
- 50 EMA
- 1.14491
- 200 SMA
- 1.15979
ATR (14)
Expanding volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Expanding volatility describes an environment in which movement and level tests may develop more quickly. ATR therefore raises timing and range risk around the supplied technical areas, but it does not provide directional confirmation.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00617 (0.55%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00252 (0.22%)
Technical conclusion: The central thesis is bearish because D1 trend, moving-average structure and negative momentum align, with H4 adding tactical pressure. The strongest counterargument is the mixed D1 close sequence and the H4 MACD histogram, which indicate that immediate continuation is not fully uniform. The next supplied reference points are 1.11638 on support and 1.12758 on resistance, with 1.1282 defining the formal upper boundary for the bearish view.
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EUR/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11638 | Primary support | Weekly structure | A break toward this supplied support would test whether the bearish D1 structure is extending beyond the current reference close of 1.12097. |
| 1.12758 | Primary resistance | Weekly structure | The reference D1 close is below this level; recovery through it would challenge the immediate bearish structure. |
| 1.13794 | Secondary resistance | Weekly structure | This is the next supplied resistance above 1.12758 and also the first permitted bullish target. |
| 1.11854 | H4 support | H4 | This tactical support sits below the H4 close of 1.11892 and helps frame near-term downside pressure. |
| 1.1212 | H4 resistance | H4 | This tactical resistance sits above the H4 close and is the first supplied H4 level that would need to be reclaimed for pressure to ease. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/USD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Currency Report | 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 11 Oct 2026 16:33 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/USD economic calendar.
EUR/USD Outlook for 11–17 October 2026
EUR/USD enters the week with a bearish D1 structure: the reference close at 1.12097 is below the supplied resistance levels, the moving-average slopes are falling, and momentum is negative. Bearish H4 conditions reinforce the tactical side of that reading, while the mixed D1 close sequence prevents the setup from being treated as one-directional certainty.
The principal technical decision area is between the primary support at 1.11638 and primary resistance at 1.12758. Expanding volatility may accelerate tests of either boundary, and the Treasury Currency Report at 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 adds potential USD-related repricing risk. A completed D1 close above 1.1282 would materially weaken the bearish framework.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 close sequence: It indicates incomplete follow-through and leaves room for consolidation even though the broader D1 trend state is bearish.
- H4 momentum tension: H4 remains bearish, but its positive MACD histogram may delay immediate continuation or support a tactical recovery.
- Expanding volatility: It may produce faster movement through the supplied support and resistance areas, increasing timing uncertainty without establishing direction.
- Treasury Currency Report: The medium-impact USD event at 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 may trigger volatility or repricing in EUR/USD, while its result and market reaction are not supplied.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12820. One completed D1 close below 1.11355 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish. D1 trend and negative momentum align with bearish H4 conditions, although mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility reduce the quality of any one-way interpretation.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/USD this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 weakness persists around the supplied support structure and H4 remains unable to regain its resistance area. A sustained recovery toward the supplied resistance levels would instead increase the relevance of a consolidation or countertrend scenario.
What are the key EUR/USD support and resistance levels?
The primary support is 1.11638. The primary and secondary resistances are 1.12758 and 1.13794. The permitted bullish targets are 1.13794 and 1.14173; no bearish targets were supplied.
What would invalidate this EUR/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12820.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 10 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 11 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 11 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 11 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 11 Oct 2026 16:33 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
