The D1 and H4 trends remain bearish, while deeply negative momentum and a mixed close sequence leave scope for countertrend consolidation around the weekly support and resistance framework.
EUR/NZD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
Bearish conditions remain favored as D1 and H4 structure align, although oversold momentum and a mixed D1 close sequence leave room for consolidation or a countertrend rebound.
The weekly thesis remains bearish because the D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while MACD is negative and below its signal and RSI is below 50. This alignment places 1.95761 and 1.95222 at the center of the downside structure.
The setup is not one-directional in timing terms: the D1 close sequence is mixed and RSI at 26.4 shows weak momentum in an already extended condition. H4 still supports the bearish structure, but its close remains above H4 support at 1.96284, leaving consolidation or a rebound toward 1.97228 possible before the broader thesis is reassessed.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.97936
- T21.98765
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.95222
- T21.9443
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.98279.
Selected key events
- Official Cash Rate28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3High
- RBNZ Rate Statement28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3High
- RBNZ Press Conference28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.96440 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.96389 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.95761 |
| Secondary support | 1.95222 |
| Primary resistance | 1.97228 |
| Bullish targets | 1.97936, 1.98765 |
| Bearish targets | 1.95222, 1.9443 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.98279 — One completed D1 close above 1.98279 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/NZD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/NZD during 24–31 October 2026 include Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement, RBNZ Press Conference. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 3.00% | 2.75% |
| RBNZ Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBNZ Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Current EUR/NZD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: the trend state is bearish, momentum is negative and the close at 1.96389 is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. H4 is also bearish, so the tactical timeframe confirms rather than replaces the D1 direction. The conflict is timing-related: the D1 close sequence is mixed, RSI is 26.4, and the close remains above primary support at 1.95761.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/NZD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is bearish continuation within the D1 structure, with 1.95761 and 1.95222 as the immediate support framework and 1.95222 and 1.9443 as the permitted bearish targets. A base scenario is consolidation between the existing support and resistance areas, while a bullish alternative requires a stronger recovery through resistance and remains secondary to the D1 trend.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would require the D1 structure to recover through the existing resistance framework, with a completed D1 close above 1.98279 providing the formal condition that would materially weaken the bearish thesis.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support for the bullish alternative if price action moved from below H4 resistance toward the supplied resistance framework, but H4 remains subordinate to D1 and currently retains a bearish state.
- Targets
- 1.97936, 1.98765
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if D1 price action remained below 1.97228 and returned toward 1.95761, especially while D1 MACD remains below its signal and D1 RSI remains below 50.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The consolidation scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and the contrast between a bearish trend and low RSI at 26.4, provided price remains within the supplied support and resistance framework.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would support a two-sided range if its close continued to hold above H4 support at 1.96284 while remaining below H4 resistance at 1.97383; this would signal hesitation rather than a replacement of the D1 thesis.
- Targets
- The relevant consolidation framework is bounded by primary support at 1.95761 and primary resistance at 1.97228, with secondary references at 1.95222 and 1.97936.
- Scenario failure condition
- The range scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close developed beyond the formal boundary at 1.98279 or below 1.95154, because either outcome would shift the balance away from two-sided consolidation.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario would gain technical support from a completed D1 close below primary support at 1.95761, with secondary support at 1.95222 becoming the next structural reference.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would add tactical confirmation if its close moved below H4 support at 1.96284 and remained consistent with its bearish state, while D1 retained the controlling role.
- Targets
- 1.95222, 1.9443
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken if a completed D1 close developed above 1.98279, or if recovery through 1.97228 altered the current resistance relationship.
EUR/NZD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 1.96389 is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and D1 relations place it below resistance and above primary support. The bearish trend and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes provide structural pressure, while the mixed close sequence shows that the path has not been uniform.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 confirms the weekly direction with a bearish tactical state: the H4 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, MACD is negative and below its signal, and RSI is below 50. However, H4 price remains above H4 support at 1.96284 and below H4 resistance at 1.97383, so the tactical picture allows hesitation within the broader D1 bearish structure.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical configuration is bearish across trend, momentum and both timeframes, with the D1 close below its listed moving averages and Bollinger middle and H4 showing the same directional relationship. The mixed D1 close sequence and stable volatility temper the signal's immediacy.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI26.4Oversold
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger BandsOutside bandBelow lower band
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR103.9 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Oversold
H4 28.08
D1 RSI at 26.4 and H4 RSI at 28.08 are both below 50, confirming negative momentum across timeframes. Their low readings also support a cautious interpretation of continuation because weak momentum can coexist with consolidation or countertrend recovery.
- D1 RSI
- 26.4
- H4 RSI
- 28.08
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
MACD supports the bearish D1 thesis: D1 MACD is negative and below its signal with a negative histogram, while H4 has the same negative-sign and below-signal relationships. This is aligned momentum evidence rather than a timeframe conflict.
- MACD
- -0.005937
- Signal
- -0.001481
- Histogram
- -0.004457
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Below lower band
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 and H4 closes are both below their respective Bollinger middle lines, reinforcing the bearish position of price within each timeframe. Stable volatility describes the environment as measured rather than establishing direction, so movement toward the supplied levels may develop without a volatility-based directional conclusion.
- Position in band
- 27.1 pips below lower
- Band width
- 536.3 pips (2.69%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.98765Price is 237.6 pips below (-1.20%)
- 200 SMA falling1.98279Price is 189.0 pips below (-0.95%)
The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. H4 also places the close below EMA20 and EMA50, giving the D1 bearish structure tactical reinforcement.
- D1 close
- 1.96389
- 50 EMA
- 1.98765
- 200 SMA
- 1.98279
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility means ATR should be treated as a measure of movement conditions rather than directional evidence. The D1 ATR reference is larger than the H4 ATR reference, consistent with using D1 for the weekly framework and H4 for tactical timing.
- D1 ATR
- 0.01039 (0.53%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00423 (0.22%)
Technical conclusion: The controlling evidence remains bearish: D1 trend, falling longer-term moving-average slopes, negative momentum and price below the D1 moving-average and Bollinger-middle framework all align, with H4 providing additional confirmation. The strongest counterargument is the mixed D1 close sequence alongside low RSI, which leaves room for consolidation or a recovery toward 1.97228. The next relevant downside references are 1.95761 and 1.95222, while 1.97936 and 1.98279 define progressively stronger recovery tests.
View all live EUR/NZD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/NZD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.95761 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close at 1.96389 remains above this support, making it the first structural reference for assessing whether bearish pressure is developing or pausing. |
| 1.95222 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the next supplied downside support and also the first permitted bearish target. |
| 1.97228 | Primary resistance | D1 | A recovery toward this resistance would test the bearish structure without by itself removing the formal upper boundary. |
| 1.97936 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This resistance is the second recovery reference and the first permitted bullish target. |
| 1.96284 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close remains above this tactical support, leaving room for short-term hesitation despite the bearish H4 state. |
| 1.97383 | H4 resistance | H4 | This is the tactical ceiling for assessing whether an H4 recovery is merely corrective or beginning to challenge the wider D1 structure. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/NZD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/NZD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 2.75% | 3.00% |
| RBNZ Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBNZ Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 8 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 17:53 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/NZD economic calendar.
EUR/NZD Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
The weekly structure remains bearish because D1 trend, negative momentum and moving-average relationships are aligned, while H4 provides tactical confirmation. Price at 1.96389 is above primary support at 1.95761 but below primary resistance at 1.97228, leaving the market between important structural references.
The main qualification is timing: the mixed D1 close sequence, low RSI readings and stable volatility allow consolidation or a countertrend recovery before the broader thesis is resolved. RBNZ and ECB events may increase repricing risk around these levels, while one completed D1 close above 1.98279 would materially weaken the bearish framework.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 price action: The D1 close sequence is mixed, so the bearish trend has not translated into a uniform sequence of closes and may allow consolidation around 1.95761 and 1.97228.
- Low momentum readings: D1 RSI at 26.4 and H4 RSI at 28.08 are below 50, supporting the bearish momentum assessment but also making timing less immediate when interpreted alongside the mixed D1 close sequence.
- Timeframe and level hesitation: H4 remains above support at 1.96284 while below resistance at 1.97383, leaving tactical room for two-sided movement within the D1 bearish thesis.
- Scheduled policy repricing: High-impact RBNZ events on 28 Oct 2026 and ECB events on 29 Oct 2026 may create volatility or repricing around the existing technical levels without a known directional outcome.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.98279. One completed D1 close below 1.95154 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/NZD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/NZD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because D1 trend, negative momentum and H4 tactical structure all point lower, while the mixed D1 close sequence limits confidence in immediate continuation.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/NZD this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 price action develops below 1.95761, while a move back toward 1.97228 would represent a countertrend test that still sits within the wider weekly framework.
What are the key EUR/NZD support and resistance levels?
The main downside references are 1.95761 and 1.95222, with 1.97228 and 1.97936 marking the first resistance areas. The permitted bearish targets are 1.95222 and 1.9443.
What would invalidate this EUR/NZD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.98279.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURNZD)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 17:53 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.00× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
