EUR/USD holds a bearish D1 structure beneath its major moving averages, but mixed momentum and a neutral H4 picture keep the weekly setup conditional within the 1.11038 to 1.11908 range.
Daily check — 10 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 1.12227 on 9 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 1.12323; the lower calibrated boundary 1.10693 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is bearish as the D1 trend and price below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 hold, though mixed momentum and a neutral H4 state temper conviction.
On the D1 chart, EUR/USD closed at 1.11422, below the 20-period EMA at 1.12082, the 50-period EMA at 1.13017 and the 200-period SMA at 1.15401. The EMA50 and SMA200 are both falling, so the moving-average structure still leans firmly bearish. Price has not yet broken below the primary support at 1.11038, however, and the mixed close sequence shows the decline is not yet resolving decisively.
Momentum offers a more tempered picture. The D1 RSI at 38.19 sits below the 50 midline and the MACD remains below zero, yet the MACD is above its signal line with a positive histogram. That points to bearish pressure easing relative to the signal rather than turning bullish. On H4, the close at 1.11916 is above the H4 support at 1.11886 and the 20-period EMA, but below the H4 50-period EMA and the middle Bollinger band. With H4 MACD below its signal and the histogram negative, the tactical picture supports hesitation rather than a second independent weekly thesis.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.12257
- T21.12598
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.10375 (projected)
- T21.09713 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.12323.
Selected key events
- Core CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Core CPI m/m10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.12216 as of 10 Nov 2026 06:05 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.11422 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.11038 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 1.11908 |
| Bullish targets | 1.12257, 1.12598 |
| Bearish targets | 1.10375 (projected), 1.09713 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.12323 — One completed D1 close above 1.12323 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
Live EUR/USD Tools
A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.
- Live
Live chart & price
Watch EUR/USD move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.
- Live
Technical signals
Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.
Economic calendar
Know what's coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.
Historical data
Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.
All EUR/USD forecasts
Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.
EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/USD during 9–14 November 2026 include FOMC Member Waller Speaks, Core CPI y/y, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC Member Waller Speaks | 10 Nov 2026 12:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 2.6% |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 3.7% |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.6% |
Current EUR/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 structure controls this week’s thesis. Price is below the 20-period EMA, 50-period EMA and 200-period SMA, with the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes falling, while the close sits inside the 1.11038 to 1.11908 range. Momentum is mixed rather than decisively bearish and H4 is neutral, so the market reads as a weak downtrend awaiting a decisive completed D1 close.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalneutralH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The weekly thesis is bearish, but its development depends on whether completed D1 closes resolve the range between primary support and primary resistance. A completed D1 close above 1.11908 would weaken the bearish reading, a completed D1 close below 1.11038 would strengthen downside development toward the projected ATR-based reference targets, and closes remaining inside the range would keep the market in consolidation.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 1.11908 would move price above primary resistance and begin to challenge the bearish structure. It would still leave the close beneath the 20-period EMA at 1.12082, so a recovery would need further follow-through before it could be considered a structural shift.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes above the H4 resistance at 1.12036 would support tactical upside development, particularly if the H4 MACD moves back above its signal line and momentum confirms the move.
- Targets
- 1.12257, 1.12598
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish case would weaken if a completed D1 close fails to hold above 1.11908 and price returns beneath it, or if H4 rallies stall below 1.12036 while the H4 MACD remains beneath its signal.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- Completed D1 closes remaining between 1.11038 and 1.11908 would indicate that the market is still working through its range rather than resolving toward either side.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 price oscillating around the H4 support at 1.11886 and the H4 resistance at 1.12036, with the H4 MACD histogram remaining negative, would sustain the neutral tactical state.
- Targets
- Between primary support at 1.11038 and primary resistance at 1.11908.
- Scenario failure condition
- This scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close moves above 1.11908 or below 1.11038, since either close would take the market out of the range and toward one of the directional scenarios.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below primary support at 1.11038 would confirm that the bearish structure is extending, bringing the projected ATR-based reference targets at 1.10375 and 1.09713 into view.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes below the H4 support at 1.11886 would add tactical pressure and align the lower-timeframe read with the D1 bearish thesis.
- Targets
- 1.10375 (projected), 1.09713 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- The case for continued downside would weaken on a completed D1 close back above primary resistance at 1.11908, or if H4 recovers above the H4 resistance at 1.12036 and tactical momentum turns higher.
EUR/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 1.11422 sits below the middle Bollinger band at 1.11908 and above the lower band at 1.11244, leaving price in the lower part of the band structure. It remains below the EMA20 at 1.12082, EMA50 at 1.13017 and SMA200 at 1.15401, which reinforces the bearish trend context, while staying above primary support at 1.11038 shows the market has not yet resolved lower.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 adds tactical context rather than a second weekly thesis. The close at 1.11916 is above the H4 support at 1.11886 and the H4 EMA20 at 1.11883, which offers short-term stability, yet it remains below the H4 EMA50 at 1.11925 and the middle band at 1.1207. The H4 MACD sits below its signal with a negative histogram, while RSI at 50.17 is above the midline, so H4 signals hesitation rather than alignment with the D1 bearish trend.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 trend is bearish with a mixed close sequence and mixed momentum. H4 is neutral, with price between its support and resistance. Volatility is stable, with D1 ATR at 0.00663 and H4 ATR at 0.00277.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 10 November 2026.
- RSI38.19Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands13% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR66.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 50.17
D1 RSI below the 50 midline supports the bearish trend read but does not by itself show a decisive extension. On H4, RSI above 50 sits in tension with the negative MACD readings and offers a different tactical signal.
- D1 RSI
- 38.19
- H4 RSI
- 50.17
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
On D1 the MACD remains below zero, but its position above the signal line with a positive histogram suggests bearish momentum is easing relative to the signal rather than reversing. This moderates the bearish read without refuting it. On H4 the MACD sits below its signal with a negative histogram, so tactical momentum still leans lower and tempers the neutral H4 state.
- MACD
- -0.003862
- Signal
- -0.004909
- Histogram
- 0.001047
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close sits below the middle band and above the lower band, so the bands do not on their own point to an extended move. The close is inside the band structure rather than at its lower edge, which fits a range-bound downtrend. On H4 the close is also inside the bands, below the middle band, consistent with neutral tactical conditions.
- Position in band
- 13%
- Band width
- 132.8 pips (1.19%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.13017Price is 159.5 pips below (-1.41%)
- 200 SMA falling1.15401Price is 397.9 pips below (-3.45%)
The D1 close sits below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 with the EMA50 and SMA200 both falling, which is structurally consistent with the bearish D1 trend. On H4 the close is above the EMA20 but below the EMA50, so tactical moving-average alignment is mixed rather than bearish.
- D1 close
- 1.11422
- 50 EMA
- 1.13017
- 200 SMA
- 1.15401
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
D1 ATR of 0.00663 and H4 ATR of 0.00277 with a stable volatility state. Stable volatility suggests ranges are not widening, so tests of existing levels may develop at a measured pace. Volatility on its own does not indicate direction.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00663 (0.60%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00277 (0.25%)
Technical conclusion: The weekly thesis stays bearish because D1 trend, moving-average structure and falling long-term slopes align beneath the 1.11908 resistance. The strongest counterargument is that D1 MACD is above its signal and H4 RSI is above 50, which could allow a rebound toward the 1.11908 and 1.12257 resistance area and the H4 resistance at 1.12036. The next decisive step is a completed D1 close outside the 1.11038 to 1.11908 range, so the bias remains conditional until then.
View all live EUR/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11038 | Primary support | D1 | First D1 support; a completed D1 close below it would move the structure toward the projected bearish reference targets. |
| 1.11908 | Primary resistance | D1 | First D1 resistance and the boundary of the bullish recovery case; a completed D1 close above it would challenge the bearish structure. |
| 1.12257 | Secondary resistance | D1 | Second D1 resistance and the first bullish reference target if the recovery extends. |
| 1.12598 | Additional resistance | D1 | Third D1 resistance and the second bullish reference target, sitting above the upper invalidation boundary. |
| 1.11886 | H4 support | H4 | Tactical support; H4 closes below it would add short-term bearish pressure without replacing the D1 thesis. |
| 1.12036 | H4 resistance | H4 | Tactical resistance; H4 closes above it would support the bullish tactical trigger. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/USD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 2.6% | — |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 3.7% | — |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Core PPI m/m | 13 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Showing 5 of 9 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 09 Nov 2026 15:51 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/USD economic calendar.
EUR/USD Outlook for 9–14 November 2026
The weekly thesis remains bearish because the D1 trend, the close beneath the 20-period EMA, 50-period EMA and 200-period SMA, and the falling long-term slopes all point lower. The market has not yet broken the 1.11038 primary support, however, and the close sits inside the range. The next decisive evidence is a completed D1 close outside the 1.11038 to 1.11908 range.
Momentum and H4 keep the setup conditional. D1 MACD is above its signal while RSI remains below 50, and H4 RSI is above 50 even as H4 MACD remains negative. The US inflation and producer price releases could test the range boundaries, so the weekly picture can change quickly if a completed D1 close resolves the range in either direction.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Timeframe disagreement between D1 and H4: The D1 trend is bearish while H4 is neutral with RSI above 50 but negative MACD readings. Tactical moves may run against the weekly thesis and create whipsaw around the 1.11908 resistance.
- Momentum conflict on D1: D1 MACD sits above its signal with a positive histogram while RSI remains below 50. Easing bearish momentum could slow downside development even as the trend structure stays bearish.
- Clustered high-impact USD releases: The CPI releases on 10 November and PPI releases on 13 November are high-impact USD events. Rapid repricing could push price across the 1.11038 or 1.11908 boundaries before the trend structure is resolved.
- Close location inside the range: The D1 close at 1.11422 sits between primary support and primary resistance with a mixed close sequence. Scenario relevance can shift on a single completed D1 close without a decisive structural break.
- Projected targets are not structural levels: The bearish reference targets at 1.10375 and 1.09713 are ATR-based projections rather than structural support, so they should not be read as points where a move is guaranteed to stop or reverse.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12323. One completed D1 close below 1.10693 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is bearish because the D1 trend is bearish, with the close below the 20-period EMA, 50-period EMA and 200-period SMA and with falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes. Momentum and H4 are not strong enough to overturn that read, but they are mixed enough to keep the forecast conditional.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/USD this week?
The bearish scenario gains relevance on a completed D1 close below 1.11038, with projected ATR-based reference targets at 1.10375 and 1.09713. The base scenario applies while completed D1 closes remain between 1.11038 and 1.11908, and the bullish scenario becomes more relevant only after a completed D1 close above 1.11908.
What are the key EUR/USD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.11038 and primary resistance is 1.11908, with secondary resistance at 1.12257. H4 support at 1.11886 and H4 resistance at 1.12036 provide tactical reference points, while the D1 range controls the weekly thesis.
What would invalidate this EUR/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12323.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 10 Nov 2026 06:05 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 10 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 09 Nov 2026 15:51 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
