AUD/USD closed at 0.68645 on D1 with trend, momentum and H4 tactical state all leaning bearish, yet price remains above primary D1 support at 0.68639 and the close sequence is mixed. The week therefore hinges on whether the 0.68958 resistance area can be reclaimed on a completed D1 close.
Daily check — 10 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 0.69251 on 9 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 0.69309; the lower calibrated boundary 0.68084 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/USD carries a Bearish weekly bias: D1 trend and momentum are both negative and the close sits below its moving averages, though the mixed close sequence and a close above D1 support keep the setup conditional.
The weekly thesis is set by the daily chart. D1 trend is bearish, the close at 0.68645 sits below the EMA20 at 0.69863, the EMA50 at 0.70165 and the SMA200 at 0.70554, and both the EMA50 and SMA200 are sloping lower. Momentum supports that picture, with MACD below its signal line and the histogram negative, and RSI at 33.18 well below the midpoint. The main limitation is the mixed close sequence, which means the trend has not yet produced a clean run of lower closes, and the close remains above primary support at 0.68639.
H4 adds tactical weakness rather than a separate weekly view. The H4 close at 0.68867 is below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, and H4 momentum is negative, yet price still holds above H4 support at 0.6855 and below H4 resistance at 0.68917. Expanding volatility suggests the week may move faster through these levels, and the US CPI and PPI releases on 10 and 13 November are the main scheduled catalysts that could reprice the USD side of the pair.
- Bullish targets
-
- T10.69258
- T20.69586
- Bearish targets
-
- T10.6853
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 0.69309.
Selected key events
- Core CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Core CPI m/m10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 0.69212 as of 10 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 0.68645 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 0.68639 |
| Secondary support | 0.68530 |
| Primary resistance | 0.68958 |
| Bullish targets | 0.69258, 0.69586 |
| Bearish targets | 0.6853 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 0.69309 — One completed D1 close above 0.69309 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/USD during 9–14 November 2026 include FOMC Member Waller Speaks, Core CPI y/y, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC Member Waller Speaks | 10 Nov 2026 12:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 2.6% |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 3.7% |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.6% |
Current AUD/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
The weekly structure is set by D1, where price sits below every supplied moving average and both the EMA50 and SMA200 are falling. Momentum confirms that bias, with MACD below its signal and RSI below 50. H4 is also bearish, but its price action is more restrained: the close holds above H4 support while still trading below its H4 averages, so the tactical picture adds pressure without yet breaking the range.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilityexpandingD1 ATR change
Is AUD/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish bias is favoured because the D1 structure and momentum point the same way, but the mixed close sequence and proximity to the 0.68639 to 0.68958 range keep the outcome open. A bullish reclaim, a range-bound week and a bearish break are each conditional on different daily closes.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above primary resistance at 0.68958 would start to shift the structure away from the bearish trend and toward the bullish targets at 0.69258 and 0.69586.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close above H4 resistance at 0.68917 would give early tactical support to a rebound, with the D1 reclaim still required to change the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 0.69258, 0.69586
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close back below primary support at 0.68639 would leave any rebound without structural acceptance and return weight to the bearish structure.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- D1 closes that keep price between primary support at 0.68639 and primary resistance at 0.68958 would show a range-bound week in which neither side has resolved the structure.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes that remain between H4 support at 0.6855 and H4 resistance at 0.68917 would reflect tactical indecision within the wider D1 range.
- Targets
- The base scenario is a consolidation between 0.68639 and 0.68958, with the H4 range at 0.6855 to 0.68917 providing the tactical boundaries inside it.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close outside the 0.68639 to 0.68958 range, in either direction, would end the consolidation read and shift emphasis to the side that breaks.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below primary support at 0.68639 would confirm the structural break of support and open the path toward the bearish target at 0.6853.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below H4 support at 0.6855 would add tactical confirmation to the D1 bearish thesis and bring the bearish target into closer view.
- Targets
- 0.6853
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close back above primary resistance at 0.68958 would weaken the bearish structure, although it would not by itself reach the formal upper boundary at 0.69309.
AUD/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 0.68645 is above primary support at 0.68639 but below primary resistance at 0.68958, placing price in a narrow zone between the two. Price sits below the Bollinger middle at 0.6987 and the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, which keeps the daily structure on the weaker side. The mixed close sequence is the main counterweight, showing that daily closes have not yet committed to a clean downside break.
H4 Tactical Triggers
The H4 close at 0.68867 sits above H4 support at 0.6855 and below H4 resistance at 0.68917, so tactical price is contained inside a narrow H4 range. H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, and RSI at 31.77 is below 50. These readings confirm short-term weakness and sit below the H4 averages, but they do not yet break the H4 range, so H4 adds timing pressure rather than an independent weekly signal.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 trend is bearish with negative momentum and expanding volatility. H4 is bearish but still contained between its support and resistance. The close is above primary D1 support, so the weekly setup depends on a completed daily close to break either side of the 0.68639 to 0.68958 range.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 10 November 2026.
- RSI33.18Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger BandsOutside bandBelow lower band
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR51.0 pipsExpanding
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 31.77
RSI is below 50 on both D1 and H4, so the momentum profile supports the bearish trend rather than a rebound. The reading is weak but does not on its own define a breakdown, and it needs to be read alongside the MACD and price structure.
- D1 RSI
- 33.18
- H4 RSI
- 31.77
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
MACD is below its signal line and the histogram is negative on both timeframes, so momentum confirms the bearish direction on D1 and H4. Because the close sequence is still mixed, MACD supports the trend without yet showing a decisive acceleration in selling.
- MACD
- -0.002056
- Signal
- -0.00113
- Histogram
- -0.000926
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Below lower band
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close sits below the Bollinger middle, which means price is operating in the lower half of its volatility envelope. The expanding volatility state suggests that price can travel faster within this envelope, so Bollinger position reinforces the bearish lean without establishing direction on its own.
- Position in band
- 31.3 pips below lower
- Band width
- 182.4 pips (2.61%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling0.70165Price is 152.0 pips below (-2.17%)
- 200 SMA falling0.70554Price is 190.9 pips below (-2.71%)
Moving averages are arranged bearishly, with the EMA20 below the EMA50 and SMA200, and the close below all three. Both the EMA50 and SMA200 are falling, so the longer-term averages add overhead resistance to any rebound and reinforce the D1 trend read.
- D1 close
- 0.68645
- 50 EMA
- 0.70165
- 200 SMA
- 0.70554
ATR (14)
Expanding volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
ATR is expanding, indicating that daily and H4 ranges are wider than the average recent volatility baseline and that level tests may occur more quickly. This raises the importance of completed-close rules, because wide intraday swings do not by themselves change the D1 structure.
- D1 ATR
- 0.0051 (0.74%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00243 (0.35%)
Technical conclusion: The weekly thesis is bearish because D1 trend, D1 momentum and the close below all supplied moving averages point in the same direction. The strongest counterargument is that the close sequence is mixed and price still holds above primary D1 support at 0.68639, which keeps a range or rebound possible. The levels that matter next are primary resistance at 0.68958 for any reclaim and primary support at 0.68639 for downside structure.
View all live AUD/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68639 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close remains above this level, so a completed daily close below it would be the first structural break to the downside. |
| 0.6853 | Secondary support and bearish target | D1 | This is the next structural floor below primary support and the only bearish target supplied for the week. |
| 0.68958 | Primary resistance | D1 | A completed D1 close above this level would be the first meaningful structural reclaim and would shift the thesis toward the bullish targets. |
| 0.69258 | Secondary resistance and first bullish target | D1 | This level caps the next upward structure and is the first bullish target if primary resistance is reclaimed. |
| 0.69586 | Third resistance candidate and second bullish target | D1 | This is the higher bullish target and sits above secondary resistance, so it only becomes relevant after the earlier resistance tiers are cleared. |
| 0.6855 | H4 support | H4 | A completed H4 close below this level would add tactical confirmation to the bearish thesis without replacing the D1 structure. |
| 0.68917 | H4 resistance | H4 | An H4 close above this level would offer early tactical support to a rebound while the D1 structure remains unresolved. |
| 0.69309 | Upper invalidation level | D1 | One completed D1 close above this level would end the bearish thesis, sitting above secondary resistance. |
| 0.68084 | Lower invalidation level | D1 | One completed D1 close below this level marks the formal lower boundary, beneath the bearish target. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/USD This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 2.6% | — |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 3.7% | — |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Core PPI m/m | 13 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Showing 5 of 8 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 09 Nov 2026 14:24 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/USD economic calendar.
AUD/USD Outlook for 9–14 November 2026
The bearish bias reflects a daily structure in which trend, momentum and the close below every supplied moving average all point lower. H4 supports that weakness tactically but has not broken its own range, so the weekly setup is directional without being decisive.
The key test is whether price can reclaim primary resistance at 0.68958 on a completed D1 close, or instead break primary support at 0.68639 and move toward 0.6853. The scheduled US CPI and PPI releases give that test a clear catalyst window, while expanding volatility means the outcome may arrive quickly once the first major level is tested.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 close sequence against a bearish trend: The trend and momentum point lower, but the close sequence has not produced a clean run of lower closes, so the structure can stall within the range.
- Price still above primary D1 support: The close at 0.68645 remains above primary support at 0.68639, so a bounce or range persistence is possible without a structural break.
- Expanding volatility: With D1 ATR at 0.0051, larger swings can carry price through primary levels quickly, which raises the risk of a whipsaw around the range boundaries.
- High-impact USD data in the window: CPI and PPI releases on 10 and 13 November could reprice USD and move AUD/USD sharply, with the direction not implied by the data.
- H4 contained within its own range: H4 is bearish but still holds between 0.6855 and 0.68917, so tactical weakness may not translate into a D1 break unless the daily structure follows.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 0.69309. One completed D1 close below 0.68084 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The bias is Bearish because the D1 trend is bearish, D1 and H4 momentum are negative, and the D1 close remains below its EMA20 (0.69863), EMA50 (0.70165) and SMA200 (0.70554). It is not a certainty: the D1 close sequence is mixed and price is still above primary D1 support, so the bearish case needs structural follow-through.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/USD this week?
The primary scenario is a continuation of the bearish structure, which would become more relevant if rallies keep failing below the resistance zone. A consolidation between primary support and resistance remains a credible alternative given the mixed close sequence, and a decisive move through either side would shift the emphasis to that direction.
What are the key AUD/USD support and resistance levels?
Primary D1 support is 0.68639 and secondary support is 0.6853, which is also the bearish target. Primary D1 resistance is 0.68958, followed by secondary resistance at 0.69258. Bullish targets are 0.69258 and 0.69586, and the H4 levels at 0.6855 and 0.68917 provide tactical reference points within the same range.
What would invalidate this AUD/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 0.69309.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 10 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 10 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 09 Nov 2026 14:24 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
