The D1 structure remains bearish, while mixed momentum and a bearish H4 backdrop leave room for tactical consolidation around the weekly levels.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/USD retains a bearish weekly bias as D1 and H4 trends align, although mixed momentum leaves scope for consolidation before any further directional development.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend and a mixed close sequence. The reference close at 1.11506 is below the D1 EMA20 at 1.12183, EMA50 at 1.13256, SMA200 at 1.15587 and Bollinger middle at 1.11965, while remaining above primary support at 1.11121 and below primary resistance at 1.11965. This places price inside an important weekly decision area rather than at a confirmed structural break.
Momentum does not fully reinforce the trend: D1 RSI is below 50, MACD remains negative, but D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive. H4 is bearish and keeps the tactical backdrop aligned with the D1 direction, although H4 momentum also shows MACD above its signal with a positive histogram. The result is a bearish structure with a meaningful consolidation and countertrend-risk component.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.12419
- T21.12758
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.10501 (projected)
- T21.09881 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.12319.
Selected key events
- Congressional Elections3 Nov 2026 (All Day)High
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Non-Farm Employment Change6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.11655 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.11506 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.11121 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 1.11965 |
| Bullish targets | 1.12419, 1.12758 |
| Bearish targets | 1.10501 (projected), 1.09881 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.12319 — One completed D1 close above 1.12319 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/USD during 31 October–7 November 2026 include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Congressional Elections, JOLTS Job Openings. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 3 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 7.11M | 7.08M |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Current EUR/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
The D1 timeframe remains the controlling signal: bearish trend structure places the reference close below the main moving averages and Bollinger middle. H4 is also bearish, adding tactical alignment, but momentum is mixed on both timeframes because MACD is negative while remaining above its signal and the histogram is positive. Stable volatility suggests a measured environment rather than directional evidence by itself.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario has the strongest structural support because D1 and H4 states align and the D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. The neutral scenario reflects mixed close sequencing and momentum, while the bullish alternative requires a material recovery through the established resistance area and a completed-D1-close condition above 1.12319.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain D1 confirmation only if price action recovered through the established resistance area and then produced one completed D1 close above 1.12319. That would challenge the current bearish structure rather than merely reflect an intraday move.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support to the bullish alternative if it moved above its supplied resistance at 1.11684 while improving from its current bearish tactical state. H4 confirmation would remain subordinate to the D1 thesis.
- Targets
- 1.12419, 1.12758
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if price remained below 1.11965 and failed to develop a completed D1 close above 1.12319, especially while H4 stayed bearish.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and mixed momentum, with the reference close still above primary support at 1.11121 and below primary resistance at 1.11965.
- H4 tactical signal
- A neutral consolidation framework would remain plausible if H4 continued to trade between its supplied support at 1.11345 and resistance at 1.11684 without providing sustained tactical alignment in either direction.
- Targets
- The neutral case is a two-sided range between primary support at 1.11121 and primary resistance at 1.11965, with secondary resistance at 1.12419 as a further upside reference if the range resolves higher.
- Scenario failure condition
- The base scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close established a clear directional break beyond the relevant weekly boundary, rather than maintaining the mixed structure between 1.11121 and 1.11965.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case remains supported by the bearish D1 trend, the reference close below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and the close below primary resistance at 1.11965 while above primary support at 1.11121.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 tactical confirmation would strengthen if the bearish state persisted and price moved below its supplied support at 1.11345. Any such development would provide tactical information while D1 remains the controlling timeframe.
- Targets
- 1.10501 (projected), 1.09881 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken if price recovered through 1.11965 and then produced one completed D1 close above 1.12319, because that would challenge the prevailing D1 structure.
EUR/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 reference close is 1.11506, below the D1 EMA20 at 1.12183, EMA50 at 1.13256, SMA200 at 1.15587 and Bollinger middle at 1.11965. It is above primary support at 1.11121 and below primary resistance at 1.11965. This combination keeps the broader structure bearish while leaving price within a contested area, consistent with the mixed close sequence.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bearish and the H4 close at 1.11506 is below the EMA20 at 1.11618 and EMA50 at 1.11765, while above the H4 Bollinger middle at 1.11482 and H4 support at 1.11345. It remains below H4 resistance at 1.11684. H4 therefore adds bearish tactical context but also shows that price is not uniformly below every H4 reference, so it should be treated as confirmation and warning rather than an independent weekly thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical profile is structurally bearish but tactically mixed. D1 RSI is below 50 and price is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. D1 MACD is negative but above its signal, with a positive histogram. H4 shows the same MACD-versus-signal and sign combination, while its close is below both moving averages but above the Bollinger middle. Volatility is stable.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI36.6Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands17% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR62.0 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 45.85
D1 RSI below 50 supports the bearish trend context, while H4 RSI below 50 keeps tactical momentum on the weaker side. RSI does not provide a standalone confirmation of continuation because the broader momentum classification is mixed.
- D1 RSI
- 36.6
- H4 RSI
- 45.85
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
MACD evidence is internally mixed rather than uniformly bearish. D1 and H4 MACD are negative, but on both timeframes MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive. This can temper the immediacy of the bearish structure without overturning the D1 trend state.
- MACD
- -0.005761
- Signal
- -0.006351
- Histogram
- 0.00059
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the Bollinger middle, reinforcing the weaker structural backdrop. H4 differs tactically because its close is above the H4 Bollinger middle, a sign of short-term hesitation within the broader bearish framework rather than a confirmed change in the weekly trend.
- Position in band
- 17%
- Band width
- 137.1 pips (1.22%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.13256Price is 175.0 pips below (-1.55%)
- 200 SMA falling1.15587Price is 408.1 pips below (-3.53%)
The D1 close below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 provides the strongest trend evidence, with both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes falling. H4 also has the close below its EMA20 and EMA50, reinforcing tactical weakness, although the timeframe hierarchy keeps D1 primary.
- D1 close
- 1.11506
- 50 EMA
- 1.13256
- 200 SMA
- 1.15587
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates an environment in which movement may develop without volatility itself providing directional evidence. The bearish target candidates are explicitly projected from the D1 ATR framework and should therefore be read as reference objectives rather than structural levels.
- D1 ATR
- 0.0062 (0.56%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00289 (0.26%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis is bearish because D1 structure, moving-average positioning, falling longer-term slopes and H4 tactical state point in the same direction. The strongest counterargument is mixed momentum: MACD is negative but above its signal with a positive histogram on both timeframes, while H4 closes above its Bollinger middle. Primary support at 1.11121 and primary resistance at 1.11965 frame the immediate technical decision, with 1.12319 defining the formal upper boundary for the bearish view.
View all live EUR/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11121 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 reference close at 1.11506 is above this level, so it is the nearest supplied structural support for the weekly bearish framework. |
| 1.11345 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close at 1.11506 is above this level; a move below it would provide additional tactical information for the D1-led thesis. |
| 1.11965 | Primary resistance | D1 | The D1 reference close is below this level, which is also the D1 Bollinger middle and the first supplied resistance. |
| 1.11684 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close is below this level, making it the immediate supplied tactical resistance. |
| 1.12419 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the next supplied resistance above 1.11965 and also a bullish target candidate, so a recovery toward it would test the bearish structure. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/USD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 29K | 63K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.5 | 54.7 |
Showing 5 of 13 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 16:46 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/USD economic calendar.
EUR/USD Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
EUR/USD enters 31 October–7 November 2026 with a bearish D1 structure and bearish H4 tactical state. The reference close at 1.11506 remains above 1.11121 support but below 1.11965 resistance, while its position below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle keeps the broader technical pressure negative.
The bearish case is not presented as certain because momentum is mixed: MACD is negative yet above its signal, with positive histograms on both D1 and H4, and H4 is above its Bollinger middle. Scheduled US and euro-area events may increase repricing risk. A completed D1 close above 1.12319 would formally end the bearish thesis; the bearish projected ATR-based reference targets are 1.10501 and 1.09881.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed momentum against the bearish structure: D1 and H4 MACD are negative but above their signals with positive histograms, which may slow or interrupt bearish development.
- H4 tactical hesitation: The H4 close is below its EMA20 and EMA50 and below resistance at 1.11684, but remains above the H4 Bollinger middle and support at 1.11345, leaving short-term direction unresolved.
- D1 close sequence remains mixed: The mixed sequence reduces the strength of a clean continuation interpretation while price remains between primary support at 1.11121 and primary resistance at 1.11965.
- Scheduled event repricing: High-impact US events, including Congressional Elections and employment releases, alongside euro-area inflation and ECB communication, may increase volatility around the technical framework.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12319. One completed D1 close below 1.10824 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish. The D1 trend and H4 tactical state are both bearish, while price remains below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/USD this week?
The primary scenario is continued bearish pressure if the D1 structure remains below resistance and the H4 backdrop continues to provide tactical confirmation. A neutral consolidation scenario remains credible because momentum and the D1 close sequence are mixed.
What are the key EUR/USD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.11121. Primary resistance is 1.11965, followed by secondary resistance at 1.12419. The bearish projected ATR-based reference targets are 1.10501 and 1.09881; they are not structural support levels.
What would invalidate this EUR/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12319.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 16:46 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
