The D1 trend remains bearish while momentum is mixed and H4 is bearish, leaving downside pressure intact but limiting directional certainty around the weekly levels.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/JPY has a bearish weekly bias, led by D1 and H4 structure, although mixed D1 momentum and a mixed close sequence make continuation conditional.
The weekly thesis is controlled by a bearish D1 trend state, with the 110.655 close below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200 but above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle. That positioning keeps the broader structure pressured while leaving room for countertrend stabilization around the weekly range.
H4 adds tactical downside pressure because its close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, with bearish H4 momentum conditions. The counterweight is mixed D1 momentum: the D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, even as the MACD remains negative and D1 RSI is below 50.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1111.544
- T2111.974
- Bearish targets
-
- T1109.48212
- T2108.686
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 111.66753.
Selected key events
- Cash Rate3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Monetary Policy Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Rate Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 110.776 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 110.655 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 110.004 |
| Secondary support | 109.482 |
| Primary resistance | 111.107 |
| Bullish targets | 111.544, 111.974 |
| Bearish targets | 109.48212, 108.686 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 111.668 — One completed D1 close above 111.668 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/JPY during 31 October–7 November 2026 include Cash Rate, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.85% | 4.60% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Current AUD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
The D1 bearish trend is the controlling weekly signal. Price is below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200 and above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle, while the D1 close remains above primary support and below primary resistance. H4 is bearish and trades below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, so tactical conditions lean against the broader countertrend case. Mixed D1 momentum and a mixed close sequence keep the setup conditional.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is AUD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is conditional bearish pressure from a bearish D1 structure reinforced by bearish H4 positioning. A bullish alternative would require improving price structure through the supplied resistance framework, while the base case is two-sided consolidation between the key weekly levels as mixed momentum restrains follow-through.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain technical relevance if the D1 structure improves through the supplied resistance sequence, particularly 111.107 and 111.544, while the current bearish trend state is challenged by price action.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support to the bullish alternative if its current bearish positioning improves above the supplied H4 resistance at 110.736 and no longer remains below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle.
- Targets
- 111.544, 111.974
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 remains bearish and price continues to trade below 111.107, leaving the D1 bearish structure and downside levels in control.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and mixed momentum, with the close at 110.655 above primary support and below primary resistance rather than establishing a decisive weekly break.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 remains a source of downside pressure rather than confirmation of balanced consolidation because its close is below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, although it remains above H4 support at 110.644.
- Targets
- The consolidation framework is bounded by primary support at 110.004 and primary resistance at 111.107, with secondary reference levels at 109.48212 and 111.544 if pressure extends beyond the first boundaries.
- Scenario failure condition
- The base scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close establishes a clear directional break beyond the existing weekly boundaries, particularly above 111.107 or below 110.004.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario would strengthen if D1 price action preserves the bearish trend structure below 111.107 while remaining below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200, with downside attention returning to 110.004 and 109.48212.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 already provides tactical bearish pressure through its close below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, with H4 MACD below its signal and H4 RSI below 50. Continued weakness from this configuration would add timing support to the D1 thesis.
- Targets
- 109.48212, 108.686
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if D1 closes above 111.66753, the formal upper boundary, or if price develops sustained acceptance above the supplied resistance sequence before that boundary is tested.
AUD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 110.655 D1 close sits above primary support at 110.004 and below primary resistance at 111.107. It is above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below the EMA50 and SMA200, producing a mixed location within a bearish structural backdrop. The mixed close sequence reinforces the need for completed-D1-close evidence before treating a directional shift as established.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is tactically bearish and currently complicates any near-term bullish interpretation of the D1 position. The H4 close at 110.655 is above H4 support at 110.644 but below H4 resistance at 110.736, while also below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. That combination shows downside pressure within a narrow supplied tactical band, but H4 remains confirmation and warning context rather than the weekly thesis itself.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is structurally bearish on D1 and tactically bearish on H4, with stable volatility and mixed momentum. D1 price remains below the EMA50 and SMA200 but above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle; H4 price is below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. The principal tension is that D1 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram while RSI remains below 50.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI49.97Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands64% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR85.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 46.96
D1 RSI is below 50 and H4 RSI is below 50, so momentum readings do not provide broad upside confirmation. The H4 reading reinforces the tactical bearish state, while the D1 reading supports downside pressure but does not by itself establish a structural break.
- D1 RSI
- 49.97
- H4 RSI
- 46.96
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD remains negative but is above its signal and has a positive histogram, creating a mixed momentum condition against the bearish D1 trend. H4 MACD is negative, below its signal and has a negative histogram, aligning tactical momentum with the bearish H4 state.
- MACD
- -0.029377
- Signal
- -0.157414
- Histogram
- 0.128037
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
D1 price is above the Bollinger middle while H4 price is below its Bollinger middle. The split supports the view that the broader structure is pressured but not uniformly accelerating lower across timeframes, whereas H4 currently carries the weaker tactical position.
- Position in band
- 64%
- Band width
- 184.4 pips (1.67%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling111.032Price is 37.7 pips below (-0.34%)
- 200 SMA rising111.867Price is 121.2 pips below (-1.08%)
The moving-average picture favors the bearish D1 structure because the close is below the EMA50 and SMA200, while the falling EMA50 slope adds structural pressure. D1 price remains above the EMA20, and the rising SMA200 slope is a conflicting longer-horizon feature. H4 is weaker tactically because the close is below both its EMA20 and EMA50.
- D1 close
- 110.655
- 50 EMA
- 111.032
- 200 SMA
- 111.867
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable, so ATR describes the movement environment rather than direction. The D1 ATR is larger than the H4 ATR in the supplied readings, which means the weekly framework has broader movement capacity than the tactical timeframe without establishing which level will be reached.
- D1 ATR
- 0.85287 (0.77%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.38344 (0.35%)
Technical conclusion: The central technical thesis is bearish because D1 structure and H4 positioning align, with D1 price below the EMA50 and SMA200 but above the EMA20, while H4 is below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. The strongest counterargument is mixed D1 momentum, including MACD above its signal and a positive histogram, alongside price above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle. The next structural references are 110.004 and 111.107, followed by the supplied secondary levels and conditional targets.
View all live AUD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110.004 | Primary support | D1 | The 110.655 D1 close is above this level, making it the first supplied downside reference for testing whether bearish pressure is extending. |
| 109.48212 | Secondary support and bearish target | D1 | This level is the secondary support and also the first permitted bearish target, so a move through primary support would bring it into focus as the next reference. |
| 111.107 | Primary resistance | D1 | The 110.655 D1 close is below this level; recovery through it would challenge the prevailing bearish structure. |
| 111.544 | Secondary resistance and bullish target | D1 | This is the secondary resistance and first permitted bullish target, relevant only if the market progresses through primary resistance. |
| 110.644 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close at 110.655 is above this tactical support, so the bearish H4 configuration has not yet displaced the supplied short-term floor. |
| 110.736 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close is below this resistance, keeping the tactical structure bearish while price remains between the supplied H4 boundaries. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.60% | 4.85% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:14 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/JPY economic calendar.
AUD/JPY Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
AUD/JPY enters 31 October–7 November 2026 with a bearish D1 thesis reinforced by bearish H4 positioning. The close at 110.655 remains above 110.004 and below 111.107, while mixed D1 momentum and the mixed close sequence argue for conditional progression rather than certainty.
Downside development would keep 110.004, 109.48212 and 108.686 as the relevant supplied references, while recovery through 111.107 would shift attention to the bullish reference levels. The RBA events on 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 and 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3, followed by BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks on 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3, add potential repricing risk to both paths.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive even though MACD remains negative and RSI is below 50, which can restrain or delay bearish follow-through.
- D1 and H4 location disagreement: D1 price is above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle, while H4 price is below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. This creates a tactical bearish signal within a mixed broader price location.
- Mixed D1 close sequence: The mixed sequence reduces the evidence for an immediate one-directional weekly development and keeps the range between supplied support and resistance relevant.
- Scheduled policy communication: High-impact RBA events on 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 and 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3, plus BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks on 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3, may produce volatility or repricing without a supplied directional outcome.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.66753. One completed D1 close below 109.66285 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because both the D1 trend state and H4 tactical state are bearish, while mixed momentum prevents a categorical continuation view.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/JPY this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if downside pressure carries the market toward 110.004 and then the permitted bearish reference levels at 109.48212 and 108.686. A move back above 111.107 would instead keep two-sided risk prominent.
What are the key AUD/JPY support and resistance levels?
The principal weekly support is 110.004, followed by 109.48212; resistance is 111.107, followed by 111.544. The bearish reference targets are 109.48212 and 108.686, while bullish reference targets are 111.544 and 111.974.
What would invalidate this AUD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.66753.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:14 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
