The D1 structure remains bearish, but mixed momentum and bullish H4 conditions point to a conditional weekly outlook rather than an uninterrupted directional setup.
Daily check — 23 October 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 110.039 on 22 October 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 111.991; the lower calibrated boundary 109.289 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/JPY carries a bearish weekly bias, although bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 evidence could delay or complicate further downside development.
The controlling D1 picture is bearish, with the 110.599 close below the EMA50 at 111.17128 and SMA200 at 111.6825, while the EMA50 slope is falling. Price remains above the EMA20 at 110.39251 and the Bollinger middle at 110.2944, so the structure is bearish but not uniformly weak across all measures.
The bearish case would gain relevance if price pressure extends toward 110.004 and then the permitted bearish reference levels at 109.212 and 108.686. That path is conditional because D1 closes are mixed, D1 momentum is mixed, and H4 is bullish with its close at 110.605 above the H4 EMA20 and EMA50.
| Price at last update | 110.129 as of 23 Oct 2026 08:30 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 110.599 as of 19 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 110.004 |
| Secondary support | 109.212 |
| Primary resistance | 111.107 |
| Bullish targets | 111.63385, 112.196 |
| Bearish targets | 109.212, 108.686 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 111.991 — One completed D1 close above 111.991 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/JPY during 17–24 October 2026 include CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Trimmed Mean CPI m/m. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% |
| Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 30 Oct 2026 02:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.7% |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% |
Current AUD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: its bearish trend state, falling EMA50 slope and price below the EMA50 and SMA200 outweigh the more constructive short-term picture. Momentum is mixed rather than fully aligned, and bullish H4 readings show that tactical countertrend pressure can complicate the timing of any D1-led move. Stable volatility suggests a measured environment rather than an independently directional signal.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is AUD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario remains the primary framework because D1 structure and the falling EMA50 slope lean lower. A bullish H4 condition creates a countertrend path toward resistance, while the base case is a period of two-sided consolidation between the supplied weekly levels until D1 price action becomes clearer.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would require a meaningful improvement in the D1 structure, with price action addressing the supplied resistance sequence at 111.107 and 111.63385; the formal upper boundary remains one completed D1 close above 111.99096.
- H4 tactical signal
- The bullish tactical case is supported by the existing H4 close at 110.605, H4 RSI at 61.7, positive H4 MACD at 0.114525 and H4 MACD histogram at 0.118054, with H4 price above the EMA20 at 110.16287 and EMA50 at 110.13906. Further relevance would come from sustained tactical progress through the supplied H4 resistance at 110.608, without treating that H4 condition as a replacement for D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 111.63385, 112.196
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 strength fails to extend through the supplied resistance context and D1 remains below 111.107, allowing the bearish D1 structure to regain control.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported by mixed D1 closes, mixed momentum and the reference close at 110.599 positioned between the supplied support and resistance areas.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is bullish rather than neutral, so consolidation would represent tension between short-term upside pressure and the controlling bearish D1 structure. The H4 close at 110.605 is also positioned around the supplied H4 levels at 110.547 support and 110.608 resistance.
- Targets
- A base case would keep attention on the supplied range framework between 110.004 support and 111.107 resistance, with neither side establishing a clear D1-led continuation through the wider levels.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would weaken if D1 price action produces a clear structural development through the supplied weekly support or resistance sequence, particularly if accompanied by a completed D1 close at the formal boundary.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case is supported by the D1 bearish trend state, the falling EMA50 slope, the 110.599 close below the EMA50 at 111.17128 and SMA200 at 111.6825, and negative MACD at -0.379859 below its signal at -0.470507 only in the context of a positive histogram at 0.090648, which keeps momentum mixed.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bearish tactical shift would require H4 to lose its current bullish character, with price pressure returning through the supplied H4 support at 110.547 and reinforcing the D1 focus on 110.004.
- Targets
- 109.212, 108.686
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if H4 bullish momentum extends through 110.608 and D1 price action develops above the 111.107 and 111.63385 resistance sequence, with a completed D1 close above 111.99096 marking the formal upper boundary.
AUD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 110.599 D1 close sits above the EMA20 at 110.39251 and Bollinger middle at 110.2944, but below the EMA50 at 111.17128 and SMA200 at 111.6825. This split, together with the mixed D1 close sequence, describes a bearish broader structure with nearer-term hesitation rather than a fully aligned decline.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 currently complicates the D1 thesis. Its 110.605 close is above the EMA20 at 110.16287 and EMA50 at 110.13906, while RSI is 61.7 and MACD is positive at 0.114525 with a histogram of 0.118054. That combination supports tactical upside pressure around the H4 resistance at 110.608, but it remains subordinate to the bearish D1 framework.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The automated states show bearish D1 trend, bullish H4 tactical conditions, mixed momentum, mixed D1 closes and stable volatility. D1 price is below the EMA50 and SMA200 but above the EMA20, while H4 price is above both listed H4 moving averages, producing a directionally conflicted multi-timeframe picture.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 23 October 2026.
- RSI49.97Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands61% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR89.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 61.7
D1 RSI at 49.97 is broadly balanced and does not independently reinforce the bearish trend, whereas H4 RSI at 61.7 confirms stronger short-term upside momentum. The contrast supports tactical caution without replacing the D1 trend assessment.
- D1 RSI
- 49.97
- H4 RSI
- 61.7
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD remains negative at -0.379859, but its positive histogram of 0.090648 indicates that momentum is not uniformly deteriorating relative to the signal at -0.470507. H4 MACD is positive at 0.114525 with a positive histogram of 0.118054, reinforcing the tactical conflict with the bearish D1 structure.
- MACD
- -0.379859
- Signal
- -0.470507
- Histogram
- 0.090648
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
D1 price at 110.599 is above the Bollinger middle at 110.2944 and below the upper band at 111.63385, leaving the broader structure between the middle and upper references rather than at a lower-band extreme. H4 price at 110.605 is below its upper band at 110.88033 and above its middle at 109.90555, consistent with tactical upside pressure without establishing a weekly direction by itself.
- Position in band
- 61%
- Band width
- 267.9 pips (2.43%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling111.171Price is 57.2 pips below (-0.51%)
- 200 SMA rising111.683Price is 108.4 pips below (-0.97%)
The moving-average structure is the clearest D1 support for the bearish thesis: the close is below the EMA50 and SMA200, and the EMA50 slope is falling. The close remains above the EMA20, while H4 price is above both H4 moving averages, showing that short-term strength is running against the broader D1 configuration.
- D1 close
- 110.599
- 50 EMA
- 111.171
- 200 SMA
- 111.683
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates that ATR is describing the trading environment rather than supplying directional evidence. The D1 ATR is larger than the H4 ATR, so the weekly framework has broader movement capacity than the tactical timeframe, although no direction is implied by ATR alone.
- D1 ATR
- 0.89277 (0.81%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.31687 (0.29%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis remains bearish because D1 structure places the close below the EMA50 and SMA200 while the EMA50 slope is falling. The strongest counterargument is the bullish H4 configuration, supported by H4 moving averages, RSI and MACD, alongside mixed D1 momentum and a close above the D1 EMA20. The next supplied references are 110.004 support and 111.107 resistance, followed by 109.212 and 108.686 below or 111.63385 and 112.196 above, with 111.99096 as the formal upper boundary for the bearish view.
View all live AUD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110.004 | Primary support | Weekly/D1 | It is the first supplied support reference below the 110.599 D1 close and the immediate level relevant to testing whether the bearish structure can develop. |
| 109.212 | Secondary support and bearish reference target | Weekly/D1 | It is the next supplied downside level after 110.004 and is included among the permitted bearish targets. |
| 108.686 | Additional bearish reference target | Weekly/D1 | It is the lower supplied bearish target and extends the downside reference framework beyond 109.212. |
| 111.107 | Primary resistance | Weekly/D1 | It is the first supplied resistance above the 110.599 D1 close and a key test for whether countertrend H4 strength can affect the broader structure. |
| 111.63385 | Secondary resistance and bullish reference target | Weekly/D1 | It is both the supplied secondary resistance and the upper D1 Bollinger reference, as well as the first permitted bullish target. |
| 112.196 | Additional bullish reference target | Weekly/D1 | It is the higher supplied bullish target and extends the upside reference framework beyond 111.63385. |
| 110.547 | H4 support | H4 | It frames the current tactical condition beneath the 110.605 H4 close and helps assess whether bullish H4 pressure is holding. |
| 110.608 | H4 resistance | H4 | It sits immediately above the 110.605 H4 close and is the supplied tactical reference for assessing whether short-term upside pressure is extending. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | — |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% | — |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | — |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | — |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 8 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 20 Oct 2026 05:40 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/JPY economic calendar.
AUD/JPY Outlook for 17–24 October 2026
AUD/JPY enters 17–24 October 2026 with a bearish D1 framework, led by the close below the EMA50 and SMA200 and the falling EMA50 slope. That structure is moderated by mixed closes, mixed D1 momentum and price above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle, so the evidence supports a directional bias without a fully aligned trend signal.
H4 currently supplies the strongest countertrend evidence, with bullish momentum and price above its moving averages around the 110.608 resistance reference. The weekly path therefore remains conditional: 110.004 is the first downside test, while 111.107 and 111.63385 frame countertrend resistance; scheduled events supplied for 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 and 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) fall after the forecast window.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Timeframe disagreement: D1 is bearish while H4 is bullish, so tactical upside pressure may delay or complicate development of the weekly D1 thesis.
- Mixed momentum: D1 MACD is negative but its histogram is positive, while H4 MACD and its histogram are positive; this reduces directional alignment.
- Mixed D1 price action: The mixed D1 close sequence and price above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle leave room for consolidation or countertrend movement.
- Stable volatility: Stable volatility describes an orderly environment and may restrain the speed of level tests, without providing directional confirmation.
- Post-window event repricing: High-impact AUD inflation events at 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 and tentative high-impact JPY policy events on 30 Oct 2026 are outside the forecast window but may affect subsequent pricing.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.99096. One completed D1 close below 109.28889 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because the D1 trend state is bearish and the EMA50 slope is falling, despite bullish H4 tactical momentum and mixed D1 evidence.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/JPY this week?
The primary scenario is conditional downside development from the bearish D1 structure, while a bullish H4 push could keep price in a two-sided phase before the D1 thesis receives clearer confirmation.
What are the key AUD/JPY support and resistance levels?
The key weekly levels are 110.004 support, followed by 109.212 and 108.686 on the downside, while 111.107 and 111.63385 are the primary and secondary resistance levels.
What would invalidate this AUD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.99096.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 23 Oct 2026 08:30 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 17 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 23 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 17 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 20 Oct 2026 05:40 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
