D1 trend and momentum remain bearish, with H4 reinforcing downside pressure; mixed daily closes and a busy US calendar leave room for hesitation and sharp repricing.
XRP/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is bearish as negative D1 momentum and bearish H4 conditions align, although mixed D1 closes and a busy US calendar leave the path uncertain.
XRP/USD closed at 1.2412, below D1 resistance at 1.2898 and above support at 1.1969. The bearish D1 trend is reinforced by the close below EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and the Bollinger middle, with both longer moving-average slopes falling. The mixed close sequence is a counterweight: it makes the trend case less uniform than the indicator alignment alone suggests.
D1 momentum remains negative, with RSI below 50 and MACD below its signal; H4 likewise has negative momentum and a close below its moving averages and Bollinger middle. That alignment supports downside pressure, but stable volatility offers no directional signal and may limit assumptions about pace. US releases and the Congressional Elections add potential repricing risk during the week.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.3374
- T21.3819
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.1166
- T21.0819
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.35243.
Selected key events
- Congressional Elections3 Nov 2026 (All Day)High
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Non-Farm Employment Change6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.24630 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:55 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.24120 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.19690 |
| Secondary support | 1.11660 |
| Primary resistance | 1.28980 |
| Bullish targets | 1.3374, 1.3819 |
| Bearish targets | 1.1166, 1.0819 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.35243 — One completed D1 close above 1.35243 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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XRP/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to XRP/USD during 31 October–7 November 2026 include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Congressional Elections, JOLTS Job Openings. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 3 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 7.11M | 7.08M |
| ISM Services PMI | 4 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.9 | 54.9 |
| Unemployment Claims | 5 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 197K | 194K |
Current XRP/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
The D1 chart controls the weekly thesis: its bearish trend, negative momentum and close below the listed moving averages form a coherent downside case, while the mixed close sequence prevents a uniformly bearish reading. H4 currently confirms the pressure, with its close below H4 moving averages and Bollinger middle and negative MACD configuration. Stable volatility describes the environment, not direction; the US event calendar introduces timing and repricing risk around the existing levels.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is XRP/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish case is currently favored by aligned D1 trend and momentum evidence and bearish H4 positioning. A genuine base case remains possible if price trades two-sided between supplied support and resistance without clear D1 follow-through. A bullish alternative would require recovery through resistance and evidence that the current moving-average and momentum pressure is easing; event-driven movement could accelerate tests in either direction.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above the supplied primary resistance at 1.2898 would provide an initial structural improvement; recovery through the secondary resistance at 1.3374 would further challenge the bearish configuration. The bearish formal boundary remains 1.35243.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would need to recover above its supplied resistance at 1.2677 and show improvement from its currently negative momentum and below-average positioning. This would be tactical evidence only, not a replacement for D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.3374, 1.3819
- Scenario failure condition
- Failure to hold a recovery above H4 resistance, followed by renewed pressure toward D1 support at 1.1969 while D1 momentum remains negative, would materially weaken the bullish alternative.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A mixed D1 close sequence persisting while price remains between supplied primary support at 1.1969 and primary resistance at 1.2898 would support a two-sided consolidation interpretation rather than directional resolution.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 remaining below its supplied resistance at 1.2677 but above support at 1.1969 would leave tactical pressure bearish while preserving a range-bound possibility; the current negative momentum would keep that balance fragile.
- Targets
- The supplied primary levels at 1.1969 and 1.2898 frame the base case. Repeated movement within that interval without a decisive completed-D1-close development would be consistent with consolidation; no separate base-case target is supplied.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close beyond either edge of the supplied primary range, below 1.1969 or above 1.2898, would materially weaken the consolidation interpretation and raise the relevance of the corresponding directional scenario.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below primary support at 1.1969 would strengthen the bearish structure. If downside follow-through developed, the listed bearish references are 1.1166 and 1.0819; these remain conditional reference levels, not assured outcomes.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 holding below its resistance at 1.2677 while pressure returns toward H4 support at 1.1969 would add tactical confirmation. A move through support would need D1 follow-through to strengthen the weekly case.
- Targets
- 1.1166, 1.0819
- Scenario failure condition
- A recovery through D1 resistance at 1.2898, especially if followed by a completed D1 close above it and improving momentum, would materially weaken the bearish scenario.
XRP/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close of 1.2412 sits above support at 1.1969 and below resistance at 1.2898, leaving price within the supplied primary range. The bearish trend is supported by the close below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 and by falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes. The close is also below the Bollinger middle. Against this, the D1 close sequence is mixed, so the structure is bearish but not uniformly directional in recent closes.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 supports rather than replaces the D1 thesis: its close is below H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, while RSI is below 50 and MACD is below its signal with negative MACD and histogram readings. The H4 close remains above its supplied support at 1.1969 and below resistance at 1.2677, so tactical downside pressure has not, by itself, established a break of support. A recovery above H4 resistance would be an early warning against immediate downside follow-through, but D1 remains controlling.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical configuration is bearish across D1 trend, moving-average placement and momentum, with H4 echoing that weakness. The reference close remains between primary support and resistance, and the mixed D1 close sequence qualifies the trend evidence. Stable ATR conditions do not indicate directional bias; scheduled US events may add volatility around the established levels.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI38.33Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands11% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR5.57%Stable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 38.27
D1 RSI is below 50, consistent with negative momentum rather than a bullish momentum confirmation. H4 RSI is also below 50, reinforcing the tactical alignment, though neither reading alone establishes a support break or future direction.
- D1 RSI
- 38.33
- H4 RSI
- 38.27
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD is below its signal, with both MACD and histogram negative; this supports the bearish trend reading. H4 shows the same relationship and signs, so momentum does not currently provide a countertrend offset.
- MACD
- -0.033673
- Signal
- -0.02244
- Histogram
- -0.011233
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the Bollinger middle, consistent with the broader downside pressure, while the H4 close is also below its middle. The D1 close remains above its lower band, so the band position does not establish a support break; bands describe context rather than a forecast direction.
- Position in band
- 11%
- Band width
- 20.12%
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.33784Price is 7.22% below
- 200 SMA falling1.32051Price is 6.01% below
The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, with EMA50 and SMA200 slopes falling; this is the clearest trend-alignment evidence. H4 is also below EMA20 and EMA50, adding tactical confirmation. Mixed D1 closes remain a meaningful qualification.
- D1 close
- 1.24120
- 50 EMA
- 1.33784
- 200 SMA
- 1.32051
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable. ATR therefore informs the trading environment but does not establish direction or imply a particular level test; scheduled events remain a separate source of potential repricing risk.
- D1 ATR
- 0.06917 (5.57%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.02797 (2.25%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 case remains bearish because price is below all listed D1 moving averages, both longer moving-average slopes are falling, and momentum is negative; H4 independently aligns with that pressure. The strongest qualification is the mixed D1 close sequence, while price remains between 1.1969 support and 1.2898 resistance. Those primary boundaries frame whether the bearish thesis gains structural follow-through or whether a recovery challenges it; stable volatility and the event-heavy week leave timing uncertain.
View all live XRP/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
XRP/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1969 | Primary support | D1 and H4 | The reference close is above this level, which frames the nearest supplied downside boundary. A completed D1 close below it would strengthen the bearish structure. |
| 1.1166 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the next supplied support reference and one of the listed bearish targets; it becomes more relevant only if downside continuation develops. |
| 1.2898 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close is below this level. Recovery through it would challenge the immediate bearish structure and is relevant to the bullish alternative. |
| 1.3374 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the next supplied resistance reference and one of the listed bullish targets; it would matter if recovery through primary resistance develops. |
| 1.2677 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close is below this tactical resistance. Recovery above it would be an early sign of easing H4 pressure, but would not alone change the D1 weekly thesis. |
| 1.0819 | Bearish reference target | D1 | This listed bearish reference is below primary support and is conditional on downside development; it is not a supplied support level. |
| 1.3819 | Bullish reference target | D1 | This listed bullish reference is above primary resistance and is conditional on recovery; it is not a supplied resistance level. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for XRP/USD This Week
Selected events may increase XRP/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 29K | 63K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.5 | 54.7 |
Showing 5 of 10 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 16:29 GMT+3. View the complete XRP/USD economic calendar.
XRP/USD Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
XRP/USD enters the week with a bearish D1 configuration: the close is below the listed moving averages and Bollinger middle, moving-average slopes are falling, and D1 momentum is negative. H4 confirms that pressure, but the mixed daily close sequence and the fact that price remains above 1.1969 support prevent the setup from being treated as resolved.
A completed D1 close below 1.1969 would strengthen the downside case and make the listed bearish references at 1.1166 and 1.0819 more relevant. A recovery through 1.2898 would instead challenge the immediate bearish structure, with 1.3374 and 1.3819 listed on the bullish side. Stable volatility does not favor either path, while the US calendar may make level tests less orderly.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 close sequence: It qualifies the otherwise bearish alignment of price below moving averages and negative momentum, leaving less evidence of uniform directional follow-through.
- H4 pressure without a D1 support break: H4 is bearish, but the reference close remains above the shared 1.1969 support. Tactical weakness has not yet established a D1 structural break.
- US event concentration: US releases and the Congressional Elections may introduce volatility or repricing around existing levels, making timing less predictable without indicating direction.
- Stable volatility: Stable conditions do not confirm directional expansion, so the bearish technical alignment alone does not establish the pace or extent of movement.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.35243. One completed D1 close below 1.10968 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
XRP/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is XRP/USD bullish or bearish this week?
Bearish. D1 structure and momentum point lower, and H4 currently reinforces rather than offsets that pressure; mixed D1 closes and event risk keep the assessment conditional.
What scenario would strengthen for XRP/USD this week?
The bearish scenario gains relevance if price action continues to respect D1 resistance and tests the 1.1969 support area. A break in that support would bring the listed lower references into focus, but no outcome is assured; recovery through resistance would strengthen the countertrend case.
What are the key XRP/USD support and resistance levels?
The principal supplied levels are support at 1.1969 and 1.1166, and resistance at 1.2898 and 1.3374. They frame the current downside-bias assessment; the reference close of 1.2412 is between primary support and resistance.
What would invalidate this XRP/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.35243.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (XRPUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:55 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 16:29 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.50× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
