Bullish daily structure and positive momentum support the weekly bias, while mixed price action, softer H4 momentum and a busy event calendar temper the setup.
AUD/NZD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/NZD has a bullish weekly bias, supported by positive D1 momentum and price above key moving averages, while mixed closes and softer H4 MACD temper confirmation.
The D1 trend is bullish, with the reference close above the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 and also above the Bollinger middle. D1 MACD is positive and above its signal, while RSI is above 50, reinforcing the directional case. The close sequence remains mixed, however, so the broader structure is more persuasive than any claim of uninterrupted follow-through.
Price is above primary support at 1.24065 and below primary resistance at 1.25329. H4 remains tactically bullish by its derived state, but its MACD is below its signal and its close is below the H4 Bollinger middle, leaving a short-term hesitation within the stronger D1 picture. Expanding volatility and scheduled Australian and New Zealand events may sharpen tests of the existing levels without establishing direction in advance.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.25985
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.23536
- T21.23117
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close below 1.23922.
Selected key events
- Cash Rate3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Monetary Policy Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Rate Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.24834 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.24772 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.24065 |
| Secondary support | 1.23536 |
| Primary resistance | 1.25329 |
| Bullish targets | 1.25985 |
| Bearish targets | 1.23536, 1.23117 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Lower 1.23922 — One completed D1 close below 1.23922 formally invalidates the bullish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/NZD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/NZD during 31 October–7 November 2026 include Cash Rate, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.85% | 4.60% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Employment Change q/q | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.5% |
Current AUD/NZD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: its bullish trend is reinforced by positive MACD and RSI above 50, while the close sequence is mixed rather than uniformly directional. Price remains above primary support and below primary resistance. H4’s derived tactical state is bullish, but MACD below its signal and price below the H4 Bollinger middle show hesitation inside the broader D1 advance. Expanding volatility can make level tests faster or wider, and the scheduled AUD and NZD events add repricing risk without a known direction.
- D1 trendbullishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumpositiveRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilityexpandingD1 ATR change
Is AUD/NZD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bullish case is the main scenario because D1 trend, moving-average positioning and momentum align. It is not conclusive: D1 closes are mixed and H4 MACD is below its signal. A neutral path remains plausible if price holds between the supplied support and resistance while H4 hesitation persists; a bearish alternative would require deterioration through support, with the listed lower references framing that possibility.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bullish case would be reinforced by D1 holding above primary support at 1.24065 and a completed D1 close above primary resistance at 1.25329. Such action would align price structure with the already positive D1 MACD and RSI above 50; the listed 1.25985 level is the next supplied reference, not a guaranteed destination.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 tactical evidence would improve if its MACD moved above its signal and price reclaimed the H4 Bollinger middle at 1.24844 while remaining above H4 support at 1.24595. This would add timing confirmation to, but not replace, the D1 thesis.
- Targets
- 1.25985
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close below 1.24065 would materially weaken the bullish scenario by breaking its primary support reference; the separate formal lower boundary remains 1.23922.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A mixed D1 close sequence alongside price still between primary support at 1.24065 and primary resistance at 1.25329 would keep a consolidation interpretation relevant, especially if D1 momentum remains positive but does not produce a clear structural extension.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 MACD below its signal and a close below the H4 Bollinger middle support a hesitation reading, while the bullish H4 derived state and price above H4 support at 1.24595 argue against treating that hesitation alone as a bearish turn.
- Targets
- The supplied range references are 1.24065 support and 1.25329 resistance. Holding between them would describe two-sided consolidation; a break of that range would shift attention to the corresponding directional scenario rather than define a new target.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close above 1.25329 or below 1.24065 would materially weaken the range-bound interpretation by establishing a close beyond one of its primary boundaries.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish alternative would gain relevance if a completed D1 close below primary support at 1.24065 were accompanied by deterioration in the currently positive D1 momentum. The listed 1.23536 and 1.23117 levels are lower reference points, not assured outcomes.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 weakness would become more tactically evident if price moved below H4 support at 1.24595 while H4 MACD remained below its signal. This would be an early warning for the weekly view, with D1 still controlling confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.23536, 1.23117
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close back above primary resistance at 1.25329 would materially weaken the bearish scenario by restoring price above the upper boundary of the main supplied range.
AUD/NZD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 reference close at 1.24772 is above primary support at 1.24065 and below primary resistance at 1.25329. It is also above EMA20 at 1.23932, EMA50 at 1.23264 and SMA200 at 1.21027; the supplied EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are rising. This supports a constructive D1 structure, while the mixed close sequence cautions against describing the advance as uniform. Positive MACD above its signal and RSI above 50 add momentum confirmation, but neither removes the need for price to establish itself beyond the supplied resistance before the next reference becomes relevant.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is tactically bullish by its derived state, and its close is above EMA20, EMA50 and H4 support at 1.24595. Yet the H4 close is below the Bollinger middle at 1.24844, and H4 MACD, although positive, is below its signal with a negative histogram. That combination points to short-term hesitation rather than full momentum confirmation. H4 resistance at 1.2489 is the nearer tactical reference; H4 behavior may inform timing, but cannot overturn the D1 weekly thesis by itself.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is constructive on D1: price is above its key moving averages and Bollinger middle, while MACD and its histogram are positive and RSI is above 50. Mixed D1 closes temper that alignment. H4 remains classified bullish, though MACD below its signal and price below its Bollinger middle expose tactical hesitation. Expanding volatility describes a less contained trading environment, not a directional forecast.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI60.57Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands80% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesAbove bothBullish
- ATR71.7 pipsExpanding
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 55.65
D1 RSI above 50 supports the positive momentum reading and is consistent with the bullish D1 trend. H4 RSI is also above 50, but the weaker H4 MACD relationship shows that its momentum evidence is not fully aligned.
- D1 RSI
- 60.57
- H4 RSI
- 55.65
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is positive and above its signal, with a positive histogram, supporting the weekly directional case. H4 MACD is positive but below its signal and has a negative histogram, a tactical counterweight that argues for caution about immediacy rather than a replacement D1 trend.
- MACD
- 0.002812
- Signal
- 0.001895
- Histogram
- 0.000918
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
D1 price above the Bollinger middle is consistent with the broader constructive structure, while its position below the upper band leaves resistance relevant. H4 price below its middle reflects short-term hesitation; expanding volatility means band-based context should not be treated as a directional guarantee.
- Position in band
- 80%
- Band width
- 273.2 pips (2.20%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bullish structure
- 50 EMA rising1.23264Price is 150.8 pips above (+1.22%)
- 200 SMA rising1.21027Price is 374.5 pips above (+3.09%)
D1 price above EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, alongside rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, provides broad trend support. H4 price above EMA20 and EMA50 is constructive tactically, but does not erase its softer MACD relationship.
- D1 close
- 1.24772
- 50 EMA
- 1.23264
- 200 SMA
- 1.21027
ATR (14)
Expanding volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Expanding volatility indicates a more active trading environment in which existing levels may be tested more quickly or across wider moves. It does not specify direction, and the scheduled AUD and NZD events add potential catalysts for repricing.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00717 (0.57%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00344 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The strongest evidence for the bullish weekly view is the D1 alignment: price above rising long-term averages, positive MACD above its signal, and RSI above 50. The main counterweight is not a D1 bearish signal but a mixed close sequence and H4 hesitation, with H4 MACD below its signal. The next supplied framework is bounded by 1.24065 support and 1.25329 resistance; a completed D1 close beyond either would give the scenarios clearer structural context, while formal boundaries remain 1.23922 below and 1.25472 above.
View all live AUD/NZD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/NZD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24065 | Primary support | D1 | The reference close is above this level; a completed D1 close below it would materially weaken the bullish scenario. |
| 1.23536 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the next supplied support reference and the first listed bearish target; it is relevant if D1 weakness develops. |
| 1.25329 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close remains below this boundary; a completed D1 close above it would strengthen the bullish scenario. |
| 1.25985 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the next listed resistance and bullish target reference if price establishes a D1 close above primary resistance. |
| 1.24595 | Support | H4 | H4 price is above this tactical support; a move beneath it could add short-term caution without independently deciding the weekly thesis. |
| 1.2489 | Resistance | H4 | This H4 resistance is a tactical reference within the broader D1 range and may help assess near-term follow-through. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/NZD This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/NZD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.60% | 4.85% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Employment Change q/q | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Showing 5 of 7 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:52 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/NZD economic calendar.
AUD/NZD Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
AUD/NZD enters the forecast window with a bullish D1 backdrop: the close is above the key moving averages and Bollinger middle, D1 momentum is positive, and the longer moving-average slopes are rising. That combination favors the bullish interpretation over a bearish one, although the mixed D1 close sequence means continuation is not established by trend classification alone.
The practical technical tension is between D1 strength and H4 hesitation. Holding above 1.24065 would preserve the main support reference, while a completed D1 close above 1.25329 would strengthen the case for the listed 1.25985 reference. A completed D1 close below 1.24065 would shift attention to 1.23536 and 1.23117. Expanding volatility and high-impact AUD and NZD events may accelerate repricing in either direction; they do not resolve the technical scenarios in advance.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 and H4 momentum are not fully aligned.: Positive D1 MACD and RSI support the bullish thesis, but H4 MACD below its signal and a close below the H4 Bollinger middle may delay or complicate tactical follow-through.
- D1 close sequence is mixed.: The bullish trend and moving-average positioning are supportive, but mixed closes leave less evidence of uniform directional continuation.
- Volatility is expanding.: Level tests may develop more quickly or across wider moves; expansion does not specify which side will benefit.
- High-impact AUD and NZD events fall within the forecast window.: Central-bank communications, labour-market releases and parliamentary elections may prompt repricing that changes how price interacts with existing technical references.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 1.23922. One completed D1 close above 1.25472 confirms upper structural extension and continuation.
AUD/NZD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/NZD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is bullish because D1 trend and momentum align, with price above its key moving averages and D1 MACD above its signal. Mixed D1 closes and H4 momentum hesitation keep the view conditional.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/NZD this week?
The bullish scenario would gain relevance if D1 structure remains constructive and price progresses through resistance; a completed D1 close above 1.25329 would add evidence toward the listed 1.25985 reference. H4 MACD below its signal and a mixed D1 close sequence remain reasons for caution.
What are the key AUD/NZD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.24065, followed by 1.23536; primary resistance is 1.25329, followed by 1.25985. These are reference levels, not assurances of a future move.
What would invalidate this AUD/NZD forecast?
The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 1.23922.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDNZD)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:52 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.20× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
