Bearish D1 structure remains the central pressure, while mixed momentum and a bearish H4 backdrop leave room for consolidation and event-driven repricing.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/JPY retains a bearish weekly bias as D1 price remains below its moving averages and H4 is bearish, though mixed D1 closes and momentum leave scope for hesitation.
D1 structure leads the assessment: the close at 175.579 is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, with both longer moving-average slopes falling. Price is also below the first resistance at 176.421, while D1 RSI is below 50. Together these features favor continued downside pressure, but the D1 close sequence is mixed rather than uniformly directional.
Momentum is not fully aligned: D1 MACD remains negative but is above its signal, and its histogram is positive. H4 is more consistently soft, with its close below H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle and H4 MACD below its signal with a negative histogram. Stable volatility offers no directional cue; scheduled EUR inflation releases and central-bank speeches may introduce repricing risk during the week.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1177.577
- T2178.324
- Bearish targets
-
- T1175.28458
- T2175.084
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 176.93281.
Selected key events
- BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3High
- Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3Medium
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3Medium
| Price at last update | 175.911 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 175.579 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 175.392 |
| Secondary support | 175.285 |
| Primary resistance | 176.421 |
| Bullish targets | 177.577, 178.324 |
| Bearish targets | 175.28458, 175.084 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 176.933 — One completed D1 close above 176.933 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/JPY during 31 October–7 November 2026 include Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, ECB President Lagarde Speaks. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 5 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Current EUR/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
The D1 trend is bearish, with price below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle and both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes falling. The close sequence is mixed, while momentum only partly confirms: D1 RSI is below 50, but MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive despite negative MACD. H4 adds tactical pressure rather than contradicting the weekly direction: its close is below its moving averages and Bollinger middle, with MACD below its signal and a negative histogram. Stable volatility describes the environment, not direction.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario is the primary framework because D1 trend and moving-average positioning align with bearish H4 conditions. Mixed D1 closes and the positive D1 MACD histogram leave room for pauses or recovery attempts. A neutral scenario would involve two-sided trade between supplied levels without a clear D1 resolution; the bullish alternative would require improvement through resistance and would remain counter to the prevailing D1 structure unless that structure changes.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would become more relevant if completed D1 price action moved above the supplied resistance sequence, beginning at 176.421 and then 177.577. Such development would challenge, but not by itself erase, the bearish D1 backdrop below the formal upper boundary.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 improvement above its supplied resistance at 175.816, accompanied by a move back above its EMA20 and Bollinger middle, would provide tactical evidence of recovery; D1 would still control the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 177.577, 178.324
- Scenario failure condition
- Failure to sustain improvement through the supplied resistance sequence, especially if D1 remains below its moving averages and H4 stays below its tactical averages, would materially weaken the bullish alternative.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The neutral scenario would be supported by continued mixed D1 closes and price holding between the listed support at 175.392 and resistance at 176.421, without a clear structural resolution.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 remaining between its supplied support at 175.532 and resistance at 175.816 would be consistent with tactical hesitation, particularly if its bearish indicators cease to extend without turning into sustained recovery evidence.
- Targets
- The base case is two-sided consolidation around the reference close, bounded for scenario framing by the listed primary support at 175.392 and primary resistance at 176.421; no directional target is assigned to this scenario.
- Scenario failure condition
- A decisive completed D1 move beyond the supplied primary support or resistance, accompanied by aligned H4 price action, would weaken the consolidation interpretation.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case would be reinforced by continued D1 closes below the supplied primary resistance at 176.421 while the D1 trend and falling moving-average slopes remain in place.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 remaining below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, with MACD below its signal, would continue to provide tactical confirmation; pressure through the supplied support at 175.392 would make the listed lower references more relevant.
- Targets
- 175.28458, 175.084
- Scenario failure condition
- A recovery through the supplied resistance sequence, especially with H4 reclaiming its tactical averages and D1 improving relative to its moving averages, would materially weaken the bearish scenario.
EUR/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 175.579 is above the D1 support reference of 175.392 and below resistance at 176.421, leaving price between the nearest listed boundaries. It is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle; falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes reinforce the broader bearish structure. The mixed close sequence and MACD above its signal are meaningful counterweights, so the structure is bearish but not uniformly confirmed by recent price action and momentum.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bearish and tactically aligned with the D1 direction: its close is below H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, while its MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative. Yet H4 price remains above its supplied support at 175.532 and below resistance at 175.816. That positioning leaves room for either a support test or short-term stabilization; H4 informs timing and warning, not the weekly thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture combines bearish D1 trend and moving-average structure with mixed momentum. D1 RSI is below 50 and price is below the major moving averages, but D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive. Bearish H4 readings add near-term confirmation, while stable volatility provides no directional signal.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI34.24Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands10% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR112.4 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 42.69
D1 RSI below 50 is consistent with bearish pressure, while H4 RSI below 50 supports a soft tactical tone. Neither reading alone establishes continuation; the mixed D1 momentum evidence remains relevant.
- D1 RSI
- 34.24
- H4 RSI
- 42.69
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is negative but above its signal, with a positive histogram, showing that momentum does not fully confirm the bearish trend. H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative, giving the tactical picture a more consistently bearish tone.
- MACD
- -0.928867
- Signal
- -0.949418
- Histogram
- 0.020552
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close below the Bollinger middle is consistent with the bearish structure, while the H4 close below its middle confirms tactical softness. Stable volatility means these band positions should not be read as evidence of directional certainty.
- Position in band
- 10%
- Band width
- 307.2 pips (1.74%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling178.862Price is 328.3 pips below (-1.84%)
- 200 SMA falling183.242Price is 766.3 pips below (-4.18%)
Price below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, combined with falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, is the strongest structural support for the weekly bearish bias. H4 price is also below both supplied exponential averages, reinforcing the tactical alignment.
- D1 close
- 175.579
- 50 EMA
- 178.862
- 200 SMA
- 183.242
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates a steadier measured environment in the supplied state, not a directional forecast. The D1 ATR provides context for the scale of recent movement but is not used to create additional scenario levels.
- D1 ATR
- 1.12412 (0.64%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.49458 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 trend and falling longer-average slopes favor the bearish framework, and H4 price and momentum currently reinforce it. The principal counterweight is mixed D1 momentum, with MACD above its signal and a positive histogram, alongside a mixed close sequence. The listed primary support at 175.392 and resistance at 176.421 frame the nearest technical decision area; movement beyond those references would need to be assessed conditionally, with the formal bearish boundary at 176.93281.
View all live EUR/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175.392 | Primary support | D1 | The reference close is above this first listed support; a test would bring the nearest supplied downside boundary into focus. |
| 175.28458 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the second listed support and also a permitted bearish target reference; it lies below primary support. |
| 176.421 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close is below this first listed resistance; recovery through it would challenge the immediate bearish structure. |
| 177.577 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the second listed resistance and a permitted bullish target reference, relevant if recovery extends beyond primary resistance. |
| 175.532 | Tactical support | H4 | H4 price remains above this supplied support, which helps frame tactical stability or renewed pressure. |
| 175.816 | Tactical resistance | H4 | H4 price remains below this supplied resistance, a near-term reference for any recovery attempt. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 3.8% | 4.0% |
| ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 5 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 16:43 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/JPY economic calendar.
EUR/JPY Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
The weekly framework remains bearish because D1 price is below its moving averages and Bollinger middle, with falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, while H4 is also positioned below its tactical averages. This confluence supports downside pressure, but it is qualified by mixed D1 closes and MACD improving relative to its signal.
The nearest supplied references are support at 175.392 and resistance at 176.421, with further listed downside references at 175.28458 and 175.084 if weakness progresses. Stable volatility does not settle direction, and euro-area inflation releases plus ECB and BOJ speeches introduce potential repricing risk. The formal bearish boundary is based on a completed D1 close above 176.93281.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 momentum conflict: D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive despite negative MACD, while the D1 trend remains bearish; this divergence in evidence may leave the weekly move less immediate or more uneven.
- Mixed D1 close sequence: The mixed sequence does not provide uniform price-action confirmation of the bearish trend, tempering the significance of the otherwise aligned moving-average structure.
- Tactical support and resistance: H4 price is above its supplied support at 175.532 and below resistance at 175.816, leaving a compact tactical area where stabilization or renewed pressure could emerge without settling the D1 thesis.
- Scheduled event repricing: Euro-area inflation estimates and ECB and BOJ speeches may increase volatility or alter assessment of either currency leg; the outcomes and direction of any reaction are unknown.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 176.93281. One completed D1 close below 174.34247 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is bearish. D1 price sits below its moving averages and Bollinger middle, and H4 is also bearish, although mixed D1 closes and momentum limit the strength of that alignment.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/JPY this week?
The bearish case would gain relevance if D1 weakness persists and H4 remains below its tactical moving averages; a move toward the listed bearish reference targets would remain conditional. A recovery that challenges resistance would instead make consolidation or the bullish alternative more relevant.
What are the key EUR/JPY support and resistance levels?
The first listed support is 175.392, followed by 175.28458; first resistance is 176.421, followed by 177.577. The listed bearish targets are 175.28458 and 175.084, while bullish targets are 177.577 and 178.324.
What would invalidate this EUR/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 176.93281.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 16:43 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
