The D1 structure remains bearish while mixed momentum and a bullish H4 condition leave room for tactical countertrend pressure around the weekly levels.
NZD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
NZDJPY retains a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and falling moving-average slopes outweigh mixed momentum and a bullish H4 tactical condition.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend state. The 89.41 close is below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200, while both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling; price remains above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle, showing that the bearish structure is not uniformly expressed across every reference.
Momentum is mixed rather than fully aligned: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, yet both MACD and RSI remain on the negative or sub-50 side of their respective readings. The bullish H4 state can support tactical recovery toward 89.92024 and 90.29, but the D1 framework remains dominant unless the upper boundary at 90.26411 is exceeded by one completed D1 close.
- Bullish targets
-
- T190.29
- T292.451
- Bearish targets
-
- T188.267
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 90.26411.
Selected key events
- Official Cash Rate28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3High
- RBNZ Rate Statement28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3High
- RBNZ Press Conference28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 89.386 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 89.410 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 88.955 |
| Secondary support | 88.267 |
| Primary resistance | 89.920 |
| Bullish targets | 90.29, 92.451 |
| Bearish targets | 88.267 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 90.264 — One completed D1 close above 90.264 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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NZD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to NZD/JPY during 24–31 October 2026 include Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement, RBNZ Press Conference. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 3.00% | 2.75% |
| RBNZ Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBNZ Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 30 Oct 2026 02:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
Current NZD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis with a bearish trend state, mixed close sequence and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes. The 89.41 close sits above D1 EMA20 and the Bollinger middle but below D1 EMA50, SMA200 and primary resistance at 89.92024. H4 is bullish tactically, yet its close remains below H4 Bollinger middle and H4 resistance at 89.474, so it complicates timing without replacing the D1 structure.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is NZD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish base remains the controlling scenario because D1 trend and longer moving-average structure are negative. A bullish alternative requires stronger D1 acceptance above the upper structural boundary, while the neutral case is a consolidation between the supplied support and resistance levels as mixed momentum and opposing timeframes restrain follow-through.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish weekly alternative would require one completed D1 close above 90.26411, which would place the market beyond the current upper structural boundary and make 90.29 and 92.451 the supplied bullish reference targets.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bullish tactical phase would gain support from an H4 close above H4 resistance at 89.474, especially if the H4 close also remains above its EMA20 and EMA50 as currently indicated by the relations.
- Targets
- 90.29, 92.451
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would materially weaken if price fails to progress beyond 89.92024 and 90.29 and instead returns toward 88.9549, leaving the bearish D1 structure in control.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The consolidation case is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence, mixed momentum and the fact that the 89.41 close is above D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below D1 EMA50, SMA200 and primary resistance.
- H4 tactical signal
- The base case would be reinforced if the bullish H4 condition remains unable to clear 89.474 while H4 MACD stays below its signal and H4 RSI remains below 50.
- Targets
- The neutral framework is defined by two-sided interaction between primary support at 88.9549 and primary resistance at 89.92024, with secondary reference levels at 88.267 and 90.29.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation case would weaken if a completed D1 close establishes movement beyond either 90.26411 or 87.97789, because that would shift the balance away from contained two-sided trade.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case would gain support from D1 acceptance below primary support at 88.9549, bringing secondary support and the supplied bearish target at 88.267 into focus.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bearish tactical shift would be signalled by H4 losing its current bullish posture, particularly if the H4 close moves below H4 support at 89.157 while H4 MACD remains below its signal.
- Targets
- 88.267
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish continuation case would materially weaken if price clears 89.92024 and 90.29 and the D1 structure progresses toward the upper boundary at 90.26411.
NZD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 89.41 D1 close is above primary support at 88.9549 and below primary resistance at 89.92024. It is above D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle, but below D1 EMA50 and SMA200; the mixed close sequence therefore sits inside a broader bearish structure with some nearer-term recovery evidence.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is classified bullish and its close is above H4 EMA20, EMA50 and support at 89.157. However, the H4 close remains below H4 Bollinger middle and resistance at 89.474, while H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and H4 RSI is below 50. H4 therefore provides tactical counterpressure and timing information, not an independent weekly reversal thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The D1 framework is bearish, with the close below EMA50 and SMA200 and both longer moving-average slopes falling. Momentum is mixed because D1 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram while D1 MACD remains negative and D1 RSI is below 50. H4 is tactically bullish but internally mixed, and volatility is stable.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI48.76Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands74% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR72.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 49.99
D1 RSI is below 50, which limits the strength of the bullish momentum case, while H4 RSI is also below 50 despite the bullish H4 tactical classification. The RSI evidence therefore adds restraint rather than clean confirmation of either timeframe’s directional state.
- D1 RSI
- 48.76
- H4 RSI
- 49.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, creating a counterweight to the bearish D1 trend even though D1 MACD remains negative. H4 MACD is below its signal, remains negative and has a negative histogram, which conflicts with the bullish H4 state and limits the immediacy of that tactical signal.
- MACD
- -0.211179
- Signal
- -0.425521
- Histogram
- 0.214342
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The 89.41 D1 close is above the D1 Bollinger middle, while the H4 close is below the H4 Bollinger middle. This split reinforces the different roles of the timeframes: D1 has some recovery within a bearish structure, while H4 has bullish moving-average positioning but weaker location relative to its Bollinger centre.
- Position in band
- 74%
- Band width
- 193.1 pips (2.17%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling90.290Price is 88.0 pips below (-0.97%)
- 200 SMA falling92.504Price is 309.4 pips below (-3.35%)
The D1 close is above EMA20 but below EMA50 and SMA200, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. H4 close is above both H4 EMA20 and EMA50. This creates a bearish D1 trend with a shorter-term bullish tactical overlay rather than aligned multi-timeframe momentum.
- D1 close
- 89.410
- 50 EMA
- 90.290
- 200 SMA
- 92.504
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates a comparatively steady trading environment in the supplied classification. ATR can frame the potential scale of level tests, but it does not establish direction; the directional evidence remains determined by D1 structure, momentum and the opposing H4 condition.
- D1 ATR
- 0.72277 (0.81%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.3238 (0.36%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis remains bearish because D1 structure places the 89.41 close below EMA50 and SMA200 while both longer moving-average slopes are falling. The strongest counterargument is the positive D1 MACD configuration combined with bullish H4 positioning, although H4 MACD and RSI do not fully confirm that tactical strength. Primary support at 88.9549 and primary resistance at 89.92024 frame the immediate weekly balance, with 90.26411 as the upper structural boundary.
View all live NZD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
NZD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88.9549 | Primary support | D1 | The 89.41 D1 close is above this level, making it the first supplied downside reference within the weekly framework. |
| 88.267 | Secondary support and bearish target | D1 | It is the next supplied support reference below primary support and is also the permitted bearish target. |
| 89.92024 | Primary resistance | D1 | The 89.41 D1 close is below this level, so it is the first supplied upside barrier for any recovery. |
| 90.29 | Secondary resistance and bullish target | D1 | It is the second supplied resistance and the first permitted bullish target. |
| 92.451 | Bullish target | D1 | It is the second permitted bullish target if the bullish scenario develops. |
| 89.157 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close is above this level, supporting the current tactical bullish classification. |
| 89.474 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close is below this level, so the tactical bullish condition has not cleared its supplied H4 resistance reference. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for NZD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase NZD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 2.75% | 3.00% |
| RBNZ Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBNZ Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 05:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 8 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 18:12 GMT+3. View the complete NZD/JPY economic calendar.
NZD/JPY Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
NZDJPY enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 framework anchored by price below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200 and falling longer moving-average slopes. The 89.41 close remains above 88.9549 and below 89.92024, while mixed D1 momentum prevents the bearish case from being treated as fully aligned.
The bullish H4 condition is the principal tactical counterweight, but H4 resistance at 89.474 remains above the close and H4 MACD and RSI do not provide uniform confirmation. The RBNZ and BOJ event clusters may increase repricing risk around the supplied levels, leaving 90.26411 and 87.97789 as the formal upper and lower structural boundaries.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 and H4 disagreement: The D1 trend is bearish while H4 is bullish, creating a risk that tactical recovery delays or temporarily obscures the weekly directional structure.
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram, even though MACD remains negative and RSI is below 50; this weakens the immediacy of the bearish momentum case.
- H4 momentum conflict: H4 is classified bullish, but H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and H4 RSI is below 50, making the tactical signal less uniform.
- Scheduled NZD and JPY policy events: The RBNZ events on 28 Oct 2026 and BOJ events listed for 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) may create repricing and volatility around the existing technical framework.
- Stable volatility and two-sided development: Stable volatility may allow the market to remain range-bound while conflicting signals are resolved, delaying directional progression toward the permitted targets.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 90.26411. One completed D1 close below 87.97789 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
NZD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is NZD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because the D1 trend state, falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, and price below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200 outweigh the shorter-term bullish H4 condition.
What scenario would strengthen for NZD/JPY this week?
The primary scenario is continued two-sided trade with bearish D1 pressure retaining control; a bullish alternative becomes more relevant if H4 strength carries through 89.474 and D1 structure improves above 90.26411.
What are the key NZD/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 88.9549, secondary support is 88.267, primary resistance is 89.92024, and secondary resistance is 90.29. The supplied bullish reference targets are 90.29 and 92.451, while the bearish target is 88.267.
What would invalidate this NZD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 90.26411.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (NZDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 18:12 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
