The weekly structure remains bearish, but mixed D1 momentum and a bullish H4 condition leave room for consolidation or a countertrend test before clearer directional development.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/JPY retains a bearish weekly bias, although bullish H4 positioning and mixed D1 momentum leave consolidation or a countertrend test possible.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend state. The 110.321 close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while the D1 close sequence is mixed and the close remains above the D1 Bollinger middle. This creates a bearish structural backdrop with evidence of hesitation rather than a uniformly aligned decline.
The tactical picture complicates the bearish case: H4 is bullish, its close is above the H4 EMA20 and EMA50, and it is above H4 support at 110.254, although H4 momentum remains below its signal relationship and below 50 on RSI. A move toward 111.07052 or 111.77332 would therefore need to be assessed as a conditional countertrend development, while 109.646 and 108.686 remain the key downside references.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1111.77332
- T2112.597
- Bearish targets
-
- T1108.686
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 111.43145.
Selected key events
- CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Trimmed Mean CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 110.336 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 110.321 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 109.646 |
| Secondary support | 108.686 |
| Primary resistance | 111.071 |
| Bullish targets | 111.77332, 112.597 |
| Bearish targets | 108.686 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 111.431 — One completed D1 close above 111.431 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/JPY during 24–31 October 2026 include RBA Gov Bullock Speaks, CPI m/m, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | 28 Oct 2026 03:15 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 30 Oct 2026 02:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Current AUD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly interpretation and remains bearish, with the 110.321 close below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. Momentum is mixed: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, but both the MACD sign and D1 RSI relationship remain negative or below 50. H4 is bullish and above its EMA20, EMA50 and support at 110.254, so it provides countertrend pressure and timing risk rather than replacing the D1 thesis.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is AUD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario remains the primary weekly path because D1 structure is bearish and price is below the principal D1 moving averages. The base scenario is two-sided consolidation between the supplied support and resistance references, supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and stable volatility. The bullish scenario requires a stronger D1 structural recovery, with H4 already providing an early countertrend signal.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 111.77332 would provide the clearest upside structural development within the supplied resistance and target framework, while movement through 112.597 would extend the bullish reference path.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is already bullish, with its close above the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and support at 110.254. Continued tactical strength would matter more to the weekly view if it progresses through the supplied D1 resistance at 111.07052 without being rejected back into the current range.
- Targets
- 111.77332, 112.597
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 loses its bullish condition and price returns below H4 support at 110.254, particularly if the D1 close remains below the supplied resistance references.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A mixed D1 close sequence, mixed momentum and a stable volatility state support a consolidation interpretation if price remains between the supplied support and resistance framework without a decisive completed-D1 structural development.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 bullishness keeps the upper side of the range active, but H4 momentum is negative in sign, its histogram is negative, and H4 RSI is below 50. This combination can support two-sided trade rather than clean directional continuation.
- Targets
- The consolidation framework is bounded by primary support at 109.646 and primary resistance at 111.07052, with secondary references at 108.686 and 111.77332.
- Scenario failure condition
- The base scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close establishes a clear move beyond the supplied weekly support or resistance framework, because that would indicate directional development rather than continued indecision.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below 109.646 would strengthen the downside structure and place 108.686 in focus as the next supplied bearish target reference.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bearish H4 turn would add tactical alignment to the D1 thesis if H4 loses its current bullish condition and moves below H4 support at 110.254, although D1 remains the controlling timeframe.
- Targets
- 108.686
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close moves above 111.43145, because that would cross the formal upper boundary for the current bearish interpretation.
AUD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 110.321 D1 close sits below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, which keeps the broader price structure bearish. It is above the D1 Bollinger middle and above D1 support while remaining below D1 resistance, and the mixed close sequence indicates hesitation within that broader structure.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 currently complicates the D1 thesis rather than overturning it. The 110.321 H4 close is above the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and support at 110.254, consistent with the bullish H4 tactical state, but it remains below the H4 Bollinger middle and resistance at 110.323. H4 MACD is below its signal, has a negative sign and a negative histogram, while H4 RSI is below 50, limiting the strength of the countertrend signal.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical profile is mixed across timeframes. D1 trend and moving-average relationships are bearish, while D1 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram despite a negative MACD sign and RSI below 50. H4 is classified bullish through price positioning, but its MACD relationships and RSI remain weaker. Stable volatility suggests an orderly environment rather than a directional signal.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI47.67Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands59% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR90.2 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 49.87
D1 RSI is below 50 and H4 RSI is also below 50, so momentum does not provide broad positive confirmation despite the bullish H4 price state. The readings are consistent with restrained or mixed momentum rather than a clean directional impulse.
- D1 RSI
- 47.67
- H4 RSI
- 49.87
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, which moderates the bearish structural message, although D1 MACD remains negative. H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and negative sign, creating a tactical momentum conflict with the bullish H4 price classification.
- MACD
- -0.215856
- Signal
- -0.332086
- Histogram
- 0.11623
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is above the D1 Bollinger middle while remaining below D1 resistance, showing that the bearish trend is accompanied by some price recovery within the broader band structure. H4 is below its Bollinger middle, which limits the strength of the bullish tactical reading.
- Position in band
- 59%
- Band width
- 184.8 pips (1.68%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling111.079Price is 75.8 pips below (-0.68%)
- 200 SMA rising111.773Price is 145.2 pips below (-1.30%)
The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, maintaining the bearish structural hierarchy. H4 price is above EMA20 and EMA50, explaining the bullish tactical classification and the timeframe disagreement. The D1 EMA50 slope is falling while the SMA200 slope is rising, adding longer-horizon tension to the moving-average picture.
- D1 close
- 110.321
- 50 EMA
- 111.079
- 200 SMA
- 111.773
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility frames the week as a measured technical environment rather than supplying directional evidence. The D1 ATR establishes the scale of the current daily movement, while the lower H4 ATR indicates a more tactical movement framework; either can still support faster tests of existing levels around scheduled events.
- D1 ATR
- 0.90232 (0.82%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.41992 (0.38%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 trend remains the strongest evidence and favors a bearish weekly interpretation because the close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. The principal counterargument is the bullish H4 state, reinforced by H4 price above its moving averages and support, while D1 MACD positioning and the mixed close sequence argue against treating the bearish path as immediate or certain. The next important references are 109.646 and 108.686 below, and 111.07052 and 111.77332 above.
View all live AUD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109.646 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close at 110.321 is above this support, making it the first supplied downside reference for assessing whether bearish structure is developing. |
| 108.686 | Secondary support and bearish target | D1 | It is the second supplied support and the bearish target below primary support, so a move through 109.646 would bring this lower reference into focus. |
| 111.07052 | Primary resistance and bullish target | D1 | It is the first supplied resistance and the upper D1 Bollinger level, making it the initial upside reference for the H4 countertrend condition. |
| 111.77332 | Secondary resistance and bullish target | D1 | It is the second supplied resistance and aligns with the D1 SMA200 value, so it is an important structural test for any broader recovery. |
| 112.597 | Bullish target | D1 | It is the higher supplied bullish target beyond secondary resistance and marks the extended upside reference within the forecast framework. |
| 110.254 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close at 110.321 is above this support, which currently helps explain the bullish tactical state. |
| 110.323 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close remains below this resistance, showing that the bullish tactical condition has not yet cleared its immediate supplied upper reference. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 9 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 17:36 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/JPY economic calendar.
AUD/JPY Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
AUD/JPY enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 structure, led by the close below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. That evidence is moderated by the mixed D1 close sequence, D1 MACD above its signal with a positive histogram, and the bullish H4 condition. The result is a bearish directional lean with meaningful tactical hesitation.
The supplied framework places 109.646 and 108.686 on the downside, while 111.07052 and 111.77332 define the main upside tests and 112.597 extends the bullish reference path. Australian inflation and RBA communication on 28 Oct 2026, followed by Japanese inflation and tentative BOJ communications on 30 Oct 2026, may increase repricing risk without determining the technical outcome in advance.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- H4 bullish countertrend pressure: H4 is bullish, its close is above the H4 EMA20 and EMA50, and price is above H4 support at 110.254. This can delay or complicate a D1-led bearish development.
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, while D1 MACD remains negative and RSI is below 50. The mixed configuration reduces the immediacy of the bearish technical case.
- Stable but non-directional volatility: Stable volatility describes the trading environment but does not confirm direction, leaving room for consolidation before either supplied side develops.
- Australian event concentration: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks and three high-impact Australian CPI releases are scheduled on 28 Oct 2026, creating potential AUD repricing around the technical range.
- Japanese policy-event concentration: Tokyo Core CPI and four high-impact or tentative BOJ events are scheduled on 30 Oct 2026, creating potential JPY repricing late in the forecast window.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.43145. One completed D1 close below 108.86185 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because the D1 trend state is bearish and the D1 close remains below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/JPY this week?
The primary bearish scenario would become more relevant if D1 weakness develops toward 109.646 and then 108.686. The D1 close is currently below the supplied resistance references, while bullish H4 positioning keeps a conditional countertrend pathway active.
What are the key AUD/JPY support and resistance levels?
The main downside references are 109.646 and 108.686. On the upside, 111.07052 and 111.77332 are the primary and secondary resistance references, with 112.597 also supplied as a bullish target.
What would invalidate this AUD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.43145.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 17:36 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
