The D1 trend remains bullish, but mixed price action and softer D1 MACD momentum temper the constructive H4 picture.
USD/MXN Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is bullish on the D1 trend and supportive H4 conditions, although mixed D1 price action and MACD below its signal leave continuation conditional.
The D1 backdrop favors the upside: the close is above the primary support and below the listed resistance, while also above the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. Rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes reinforce the broader trend, but the mixed close sequence cautions against treating that structure as uninterrupted.
Momentum is supportive in level but not fully aligned: D1 RSI is above 50 and MACD remains positive, yet MACD is below its signal and the histogram is negative. H4 currently leans constructively, with positive MACD and price above its short moving averages, but the D1 signals remain controlling. Stable volatility describes the current environment, not a directional guarantee; the busy USD calendar may add repricing risk.
- Bullish targets
-
- T119.11428 (projected)
- T219.30908 (projected)
- Bearish targets
-
- T118.368
- T218.20792
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close below 18.49898.
Selected key events
- Congressional Elections3 Nov 2026 (All Day)High
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Non-Farm Employment Change6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 18.78173 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 18.79515 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 18.51846 |
| Secondary support | 18.36800 |
| Primary resistance | 18.91948 |
| Bullish targets | 19.11428 (projected), 19.30908 (projected) |
| Bearish targets | 18.368, 18.20792 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Lower 18.49898 — One completed D1 close below 18.49898 formally invalidates the bullish weekly thesis. |
Live USD/MXN Tools
A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.
- Live
Live chart & price
Watch USD/MXN move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.
- Live
Technical signals
Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.
Economic calendar
Know what's coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.
Historical data
Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.
All USD/MXN forecasts
Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.
USD/MXN Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to USD/MXN during 31 October–7 November 2026 include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Congressional Elections, JOLTS Job Openings. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 3 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 7.11M | 7.08M |
| ISM Services PMI | 4 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.9 | 54.9 |
| Unemployment Claims | 5 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 197K | 194K |
Current USD/MXN Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 supplies the main bullish structure: price is above the listed support, below resistance and above its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, with both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes rising. The mixed D1 close sequence and MACD below its signal temper that case despite positive MACD and RSI above 50. H4 is tactically supportive, with price above its short moving averages and MACD above its signal, but that alignment has not removed the D1 momentum qualification. Stable volatility leaves the technical framework intact while the USD event cluster introduces timing and repricing risk.
- D1 trendbullishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is USD/MXN Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario remains conditionally bullish because D1 trend and moving-average structure are constructive and H4 momentum currently supports that direction. A D1 advance through 18.91948 would make the listed projected ATR-based bullish references more relevant. A neutral consolidation case remains credible while price holds between the listed support and resistance without resolving the mixed D1 momentum picture. A bearish alternative would gain weight if price weakens through support, with 18.368 and 18.20792 listed as bearish references; the formal lower boundary remains governed by its separate D1-close rule.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 18.91948 would provide structural evidence of progress through the listed resistance. The broader bullish case would be more persuasive if D1 momentum also improved relative to its signal, rather than relying on trend structure alone.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is already tactically supportive: its close is above H4 support at 18.68555 and below H4 resistance at 18.80139, with MACD above its signal and RSI above 50. A move through that H4 resistance could provide tactical support for the D1 scenario, but would not by itself establish weekly confirmation.
- Targets
- 19.11428 (projected), 19.30908 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- A failure to progress beyond the listed resistance, followed by weakening H4 conditions and a D1 close back below primary support at 18.51846, would materially weaken the continuation case. The formal lower boundary is assessed separately.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The mixed D1 close sequence and MACD below its signal already leave room for consolidation, even as trend and moving-average positioning remain bullish. A D1 inability to establish progress beyond resistance while holding above support would keep the two-sided range interpretation relevant.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 remains above its listed support and below resistance, so it describes a bounded tactical condition rather than a decisive break. Continued oscillation within that context alongside mixed D1 momentum would be consistent with indecision.
- Targets
- The supplied primary support and resistance frame the base case at 18.51846 and 18.91948. This is a reference range from the listed levels, not a prediction that price will remain inside it.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close beyond the listed resistance, accompanied by sustained improvement in D1 momentum, would weaken the consolidation interpretation. A D1 close below primary support would instead shift attention toward the bearish alternative.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below primary support at 18.51846 would be a structural warning against the bullish trend case. A move below the separate formal lower boundary at 18.49898 would meet the stated lower-boundary rule.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 weakness through its listed support at 18.68555 would be an early tactical warning, particularly if H4 MACD no longer remained above its signal. Such a development would inform timing risk but would not replace D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 18.368, 18.20792
- Scenario failure condition
- A recovery that holds above primary support and then advances through the listed resistance, with H4 retaining its supportive configuration, would materially weaken the bearish alternative.
USD/MXN D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 18.79515 is above primary support at 18.51846 and below primary resistance at 18.91948. It also remains above EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and the Bollinger middle, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are rising. Those relationships support the bullish trend classification, but the mixed close sequence and MACD below its signal show that directional follow-through is not uniform. RSI above 50 and positive MACD are constructive counterweights to the negative MACD histogram.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 offers near-term support to the D1 thesis rather than an independent weekly signal. Its close is above H4 support at 18.68555 and below H4 resistance at 18.80139; it is also above H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. H4 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram and RSI above 50, indicating firmer tactical momentum than the mixed D1 reading. A rejection near H4 resistance or loss of H4 support would be an early timing warning, while D1 remains the controlling timeframe.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical inputs combine a bullish D1 trend with mixed D1 momentum and bullish H4 tactical conditions. D1 price is above its listed moving averages and Bollinger middle, but MACD is below its signal despite remaining positive. H4 MACD and histogram are positive and its close is above short moving averages. Volatility is classified as stable, so it offers no directional confirmation.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI69.18Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands85% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesAbove bothBullish
- ATR1948.0 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 58.29
RSI is above 50 on both D1 and H4, consistent with positive momentum conditions. D1 RSI at 69.18 is stronger in level than the H4 reading of 58.29, but the mixed D1 close sequence and MACD below its signal mean RSI does not settle the question of follow-through.
- D1 RSI
- 69.18
- H4 RSI
- 58.29
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD remains positive but is below its signal and its histogram is negative, a meaningful qualification to the bullish trend. H4 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram, so tactical momentum is firmer and currently offsets, but does not erase, the D1 hesitation.
- MACD
- 0.278168
- Signal
- 0.284571
- Histogram
- -0.006404
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is above the Bollinger middle and below the upper band, consistent with the broader constructive structure without establishing a breakout. H4 is also above its middle and below its upper band, placing tactical price action on the upper side of its recent envelope but still beneath listed H4 resistance.
- Position in band
- 85%
- Band width
- 9975.0 pips (5.41%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bullish structure
- 50 EMA rising17.98949Price is 8056.6 pips above (+4.48%)
- 200 SMA rising17.48039Price is 13147.6 pips above (+7.52%)
D1 price is above EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are rising. This is the clearest trend-supporting evidence, while the mixed close sequence and D1 MACD configuration caution that the advance is not confirmed by every momentum measure. H4 price is above EMA20 and EMA50, reinforcing the tactical alignment.
- D1 close
- 18.79515
- 50 EMA
- 17.98949
- 200 SMA
- 17.48039
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable. ATR provides context for the scale of recent movement, not direction; the bullish projected references are specifically ATR-based and should not be confused with structural resistance.
- D1 ATR
- 0.1948 (1.04%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.06605 (0.35%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 trend and moving-average structure are the strongest support for a bullish weekly view, with price above the listed averages and both longer average slopes rising. H4 momentum currently adds tactical confirmation. The main counterargument is the mixed D1 close sequence and MACD below its signal, which restrain confidence in immediate continuation. The next structural references are primary support at 18.51846 and resistance at 18.91948; the listed bullish targets are projected ATR-based references, not structural levels.
View all live USD/MXN oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
USD/MXN Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.51846 | Primary support | D1 | The reference close is above this first listed D1 support. A D1 close below it would weaken the bullish structure; the formal lower boundary is separately set at 18.49898. |
| 18.368 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the second listed support and also a permitted bearish reference target. It becomes relevant if price action deteriorates through the primary support. |
| 18.91948 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close is below this listed resistance. A completed D1 close above it would provide structural evidence of upside progress. |
| 18.68555 | Tactical support | H4 | H4 price is above this tactical support. A loss would be an early warning to the currently supportive H4 configuration, not a replacement for D1 confirmation. |
| 18.80139 | Tactical resistance | H4 | H4 price is below this tactical resistance. A move through it could support near-term follow-through, while remaining subordinate to the D1 weekly framework. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for USD/MXN This Week
Selected events may increase USD/MXN volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 29K | 63K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.5 | 54.7 |
Showing 5 of 10 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:53 GMT+3. View the complete USD/MXN economic calendar.
USD/MXN Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
The weekly technical balance favors the bullish D1 trend: price is above the listed averages and primary support, the longer moving-average slopes are rising, and H4 momentum currently aligns. That support is qualified by mixed D1 closes and MACD below its signal, leaving continuation dependent on further price evidence rather than trend classification alone.
The key structural references are 18.51846 support and 18.91948 resistance. A completed D1 close through resistance would strengthen the upside case, while weakening through support would shift attention to the bearish references and the formal lower boundary. Stable volatility does not determine direction, and the concentration of USD events, especially the high-impact releases, could disrupt technical timing.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 momentum conflict: D1 MACD is below its signal and the histogram is negative despite positive MACD and RSI above 50. This weakens the uniformity of the trend evidence.
- Mixed D1 price sequence: The mixed close sequence limits the evidence for uninterrupted follow-through, even though price remains above the listed moving averages and primary support.
- H4 tactical reversal: H4 is currently supportive but remains below its listed resistance. A loss of H4 support or weakening momentum would remove near-term confirmation without independently changing the D1 thesis.
- USD event concentration: The forecast includes a high-impact political event and a cluster of USD labor and other releases. Event-driven repricing could interrupt technical development around the existing levels.
- Stable volatility classification: Stable volatility offers no evidence of directional expansion and does not guarantee that moves between listed levels will be orderly.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 18.49898. One completed D1 close above 19.00943 confirms upper structural extension and continuation.
USD/MXN Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is USD/MXN bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is bullish, based primarily on the D1 trend, rising longer moving-average slopes and price above key averages. Mixed D1 closes and MACD below its signal keep the view conditional.
What scenario would strengthen for USD/MXN this week?
A bullish continuation scenario would gain relevance if D1 price action advances through the listed resistance and H4 remains supportive. Failure to develop that way, particularly with a D1 close below the lower boundary, would weaken the thesis; consolidation remains plausible given mixed D1 evidence.
What are the key USD/MXN support and resistance levels?
The primary support is 18.51846 and primary resistance is 18.91948. The listed bullish references are projected ATR-based targets at 19.11428 and 19.30908; bearish references are 18.368 and 18.20792.
What would invalidate this USD/MXN forecast?
The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 18.49898.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (USDMXN)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:53 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
