The D1 structure remains bearish, with the close below key moving averages and Bollinger middle, while mixed price action and stable volatility leave room for tactical consolidation around the weekly levels.
USD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
USD/JPY has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and momentum lean lower, although mixed price action and stable volatility leave room for consolidation before any level is tested.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend. The 157.438 close is below the D1 EMA20 at 157.69476, EMA50 at 157.90661, SMA200 at 158.53226 and Bollinger middle at 157.9011. D1 MACD is below its signal, the MACD reading and histogram are negative, and D1 RSI is below 50, creating a coherent downside backdrop despite the mixed close sequence.
H4 also carries a bearish tactical state, with the H4 close below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, while remaining above H4 support at 157.425 and below H4 resistance at 157.629. That positioning adds downside pressure but also shows that price is still between nearby tactical boundaries. Stable volatility and the scheduled USD and JPY events could affect the pace of any move toward the supplied levels.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1158.438
- T2158.935
- Bearish targets
-
- T1156.5
- T2155.486
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 158.89708.
Selected key events
- Congressional Elections3 Nov 2026 (All Day)High
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Non-Farm Employment Change6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 157.525 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 157.438 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 156.960 |
| Secondary support | 156.500 |
| Primary resistance | 157.901 |
| Bullish targets | 158.438, 158.935 |
| Bearish targets | 156.5, 155.486 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 158.897 — One completed D1 close above 158.897 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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USD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to USD/JPY during 31 October–7 November 2026 include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Congressional Elections, JOLTS Job Openings. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 2 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 3 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 7.11M | 7.08M |
| ISM Services PMI | 4 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 54.9 | 54.9 |
| Unemployment Claims | 5 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 197K | 194K |
Current USD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
The D1 timeframe controls the weekly view: trend is bearish, the close sequence is mixed, and the close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. Momentum is also mixed in classification, but the D1 MACD is below its signal with a negative reading and negative histogram, while RSI is below 50. H4 is bearish and tactically reinforces downside pressure, yet the H4 close remains above H4 support at 157.425 and below H4 resistance at 157.629. Stable volatility suggests that the directional thesis may develop through measured level tests rather than volatility expansion alone.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is USD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is bearish continuation or renewed downside pressure while D1 structure remains bearish and price stays below primary resistance at 157.9011. A base scenario involves consolidation between the supplied support and resistance areas, supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and stable volatility. A bullish alternative requires a stronger recovery through the resistance structure, but it remains counter to the controlling D1 trend until the formal upper boundary is reached.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain structural relevance after one completed D1 close above primary resistance at 157.9011, with further strength toward secondary resistance at 158.438 providing additional evidence that the current bearish structure is losing control.
- H4 tactical signal
- A move through H4 resistance at 157.629 would provide tactical bullish confirmation, but H4 remains subordinate to D1 and would need to be considered alongside the D1 resistance structure.
- Targets
- 158.438, 158.935
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish scenario would be materially weakened if H4 price returns below H4 resistance at 157.629 and D1 remains below primary resistance at 157.9011, restoring the existing downside structure.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and the absence of a clean directional resolution around primary support at 156.95984 and primary resistance at 157.9011.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would support consolidation if it continues to trade between H4 support at 157.425 and H4 resistance at 157.629, while its bearish indicator positioning keeps downside pressure present within the range.
- Targets
- The neutral reference framework is the supplied area between primary support at 156.95984 and primary resistance at 157.9011, with H4 support at 157.425 and H4 resistance at 157.629 providing nearer tactical boundaries.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would be materially weakened by a completed D1 close outside the primary support-to-resistance framework, particularly if the close establishes clearer directional control rather than preserving the mixed sequence.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario is supported while the D1 close remains below primary resistance at 157.9011 and the D1 trend, moving-average positioning and negative MACD evidence remain aligned to the downside.
- H4 tactical signal
- A move below H4 support at 157.425 would provide tactical downside confirmation, while a broader D1 move toward primary support at 156.95984 would keep the weekly structure in focus.
- Targets
- 156.5, 155.486
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would be materially weakened by a completed D1 close above primary resistance at 157.9011, especially if H4 also moves above H4 resistance at 157.629.
USD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close is 157.438 and the close sequence is mixed. D1 price is below the EMA20 at 157.69476, EMA50 at 157.90661, SMA200 at 158.53226 and Bollinger middle at 157.9011, while the D1 EMA50 slope and SMA200 slope are falling. The close is above D1 primary support at 156.95984 and below D1 primary resistance at 157.9011, leaving the bearish structure intact but not yet resolved through the nearest weekly boundaries.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is tactically bearish and reinforces the D1 downside thesis through negative MACD conditions, RSI below 50, and a close below the H4 EMA20 at 157.61638, EMA50 at 157.66986 and Bollinger middle at 157.76375. However, the H4 close remains above H4 support at 157.425 and below H4 resistance at 157.629. H4 therefore supplies tactical pressure and timing information rather than an independent weekly conclusion.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 and H4 both carry bearish states. D1 momentum is mixed by classification, but D1 MACD is below its signal with a negative reading and negative histogram, while RSI is below 50. H4 shows the same directional momentum configuration and price is below its short-term averages and Bollinger middle. Stable volatility moderates the interpretation by describing the environment as measured rather than directional certainty.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI47.27Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands25% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR91.2 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 45.46
D1 RSI is below 50 and H4 RSI is also below 50, so momentum is tilted away from a strong upside reading on both timeframes. This supports the bearish structure but does not by itself establish a completed downside break.
- D1 RSI
- 47.27
- H4 RSI
- 45.46
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 and H4 MACD are each below their respective signals, with negative MACD readings and negative histograms. This aligns tactical momentum with the bearish D1 structure, although the overall momentum classification remains mixed.
- MACD
- -0.022071
- Signal
- 0.041555
- Histogram
- -0.063626
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 and H4 closes are both below their respective Bollinger middle values, placing price beneath the central reference in each timeframe. This supports the downside structure, while stable volatility means the bands should be read as context for movement conditions rather than a directional guarantee.
- Position in band
- 25%
- Band width
- 188.3 pips (1.19%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling157.907Price is 46.9 pips below (-0.30%)
- 200 SMA falling158.532Price is 109.4 pips below (-0.69%)
The D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. H4 also has the close below its EMA20 and EMA50. This creates multi-timeframe trend pressure, although the mixed D1 close sequence argues for conditional rather than certain continuation.
- D1 close
- 157.438
- 50 EMA
- 157.907
- 200 SMA
- 158.532
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates a relatively steady trading environment in the supplied classification. ATR can frame the potential pace and size of level tests, but it does not determine direction and is not used here to create additional targets or boundaries.
- D1 ATR
- 0.91206 (0.58%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.3974 (0.25%)
Technical conclusion: The main weekly thesis remains bearish because D1 trend, falling longer-term slope information, moving-average positioning and negative MACD evidence point in the same direction. The strongest counterargument is the mixed D1 close sequence, supported by stable volatility and price still above primary support at 156.95984. H4 adds downside pressure but remains between H4 support at 157.425 and H4 resistance at 157.629. The next important weekly references are primary support at 156.95984 and primary resistance at 157.9011, with secondary levels at 156.5 and 158.438.
View all live USD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
USD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156.95984 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close at 157.438 is above this support, so it is the first supplied weekly downside reference within the current bearish structure. |
| 156.5 | Secondary support and bearish reference target | D1 | It is the next supplied support below primary support and is also listed as a permitted bearish target. |
| 155.486 | Bearish reference target | D1 | It is a supplied bearish target below primary support and represents a further downside reference if the bearish scenario develops. |
| 157.9011 | Primary resistance | D1 | The D1 close at 157.438 is below this resistance, which is also the D1 Bollinger middle and a key boundary for assessing recovery. |
| 158.438 | Secondary resistance and bullish reference target | D1 | It is the next supplied resistance above primary resistance and is also listed as a permitted bullish target. |
| 158.935 | Bullish reference target | D1 | It is a supplied bullish target above primary resistance and provides a further upside reference if the bullish alternative gains relevance. |
| 157.425 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close at 157.438 is above this tactical support, so it is the nearer downside boundary for short-term pressure. |
| 157.629 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close at 157.438 is below this tactical resistance, making it the nearer upside boundary for a tactical recovery. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for USD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase USD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Elections | 3 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 29K | 63K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 11 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:02 GMT+3. View the complete USD/JPY economic calendar.
USD/JPY Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
USD/JPY enters 31 October–7 November 2026 with a bearish D1 framework: the close at 157.438 is below the key D1 moving averages and Bollinger middle, while MACD positioning and RSI below 50 reinforce downside pressure. H4 is aligned tactically, but its close remains above H4 support at 157.425, and the mixed D1 sequence keeps consolidation in play.
The primary weekly references are support at 156.95984 and resistance at 157.9011, with secondary levels at 156.5 and 158.438. The bearish case would become more relevant through sustained pressure within the existing structure, while a completed D1 close above 157.9011 would strengthen the recovery alternative. Scheduled USD releases, Congressional Elections and BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks may alter volatility and timing without supplying a predetermined outcome.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 price action: The D1 close sequence is mixed, so the bearish indicator alignment does not yet represent an unqualified directional progression.
- H4 remains between nearby tactical levels: The H4 close is above support at 157.425 and below resistance at 157.629, leaving short-term consolidation or opposing pressure possible within the broader bearish D1 structure.
- Stable volatility: Stable volatility may restrain the pace of movement and delay a decisive test of the weekly support or resistance references.
- Concentrated event schedule: High-impact USD releases, Congressional Elections and BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks may increase repricing or timing risk without a supplied directional outcome.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 158.89708. One completed D1 close below 156.29918 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
USD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is USD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish. D1 structure and momentum are negative overall, with the close below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, although the mixed close sequence limits certainty.
What scenario would strengthen for USD/JPY this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 price action continues to hold the bearish structure and pressure develops toward primary support at 156.95984 and secondary support at 156.5. A recovery through primary resistance at 157.9011 would strengthen the consolidation or bullish alternatives instead.
What are the key USD/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 156.95984, followed by secondary support at 156.5. Primary resistance is 157.9011, followed by secondary resistance at 158.438. The permitted bearish reference targets are 156.5 and 155.486, while bullish reference targets are 158.438 and 158.935.
What would invalidate this USD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 158.89708.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (USDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:02 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
