D1 structure leans bearish with the close beneath its key moving averages, while mixed momentum and a bounded H4 corridor keep the week open to range-bound development. Canadian CPI releases fall after the forecast window.
Daily check — 11 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 111.854 on 10 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 113.870; the lower calibrated boundary 111.104 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
Bearish bias for 9–14 November 2026, as the D1 close sits below its EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, though mixed closes and D1 MACD above its signal temper conviction.
The weekly lean is bearish because D1 structure remains below the moving-average stack that matters most for this week. The D1 close of 112.135 sits beneath the EMA20 at 112.34475, the EMA50 at 112.41267, the Bollinger middle at 112.24175 and the SMA200 at 114.14868, yet it still holds above primary support at 111.735. The EMA50 is rising while the SMA200 is falling, so the slope picture is mixed: the shorter average is recovering toward price, but the longer average keeps overhead pressure on any recovery attempt.
Momentum does not fully confirm the decline. D1 MACD remains above its signal and positive, indicating the recovery impulse has not faded on the controlling timeframe, while D1 RSI at 48.19 sits below 50 and the close sequence is mixed. H4 is tactically bearish, with its close at 112.225 between H4 support at 112.18 and H4 resistance at 112.235, below its EMA20 and EMA50 and with MACD below its signal, so short-term sellers have the edge inside that narrow pair. Canadian CPI releases on 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 sit outside the 14 November 2026 validity window and are a forward risk rather than a driver of this forecast.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1113.082
- T2113.51498
- Bearish targets
-
- T1111.039
- T2110.65
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 113.86966.
Selected key events
- CPI m/m16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Median CPI y/y16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Trimmed CPI y/y16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 111.944 as of 11 Nov 2026 06:10 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 112.135 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 111.735 |
| Secondary support | 111.039 |
| Primary resistance | 112.562 |
| Bullish targets | 113.082, 113.51498 |
| Bearish targets | 111.039, 110.65 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 113.870 — One completed D1 close above 113.870 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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CAD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to CAD/JPY during 9–14 November 2026 include CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High |
| Median CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High |
| Trimmed CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High |
| Common CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | Medium |
Current CAD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly view and remains bearish: the close at 112.135 sits below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, yet above primary support at 111.735. Momentum is mixed rather than decisively weak, with D1 MACD above its signal and positive while D1 RSI at 48.19 sits below 50. H4 adds a bearish tactical overlay, with its close at 112.225 below its moving averages and middle band but still above H4 support at 112.18.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is CAD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish framework is the controlling read, but its strength depends on whether D1 closes can move below the 111.735 primary support. The base case is a two-sided range between 111.735 and 112.562, reflecting the tension between bearish D1 structure and momentum that has not turned decisively. A bullish development would require D1 structure to reclaim 112.562, which would change the weekly picture.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 112.562 would be the first structural step toward the bullish reference targets at 113.082 and 113.51498, since the D1 close currently sits below that resistance.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close above 112.235 would show that short-term tactical pressure has moved through its current resistance, with the H4 close at 112.225 presently beneath it.
- Targets
- 113.082, 113.51498
- Scenario failure condition
- A rejection beneath 112.562 on D1, or an H4 close back below 112.18, would weaken the bullish case and keep D1 structure under pressure.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- Completed D1 closes remaining between 111.735 and 112.562 would confirm the consolidation read.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes oscillating around the 112.18 support and 112.235 resistance pair, without a decisive directional close beyond either, would fit the consolidation scenario.
- Targets
- Range between 111.735 and 112.562 on D1.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close outside the 111.735 to 112.562 range would weaken the consolidation read and shift emphasis toward the directional scenario that matches the break.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below 111.735 would confirm D1 structural weakness and bring the bearish reference targets at 111.039 and 110.65 into view.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below 112.18 would confirm that short-term tactical weakness has extended beneath H4 support, consistent with MACD already below its signal and RSI at 39.71 below 50.
- Targets
- 111.039, 110.65
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close back above 112.562, or an H4 close above 112.235, would weaken the bearish read and reduce its tactical priority.
CAD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close of 112.135 sits inside the 111.735 to 112.562 band, below the EMA20 at 112.34475, EMA50 at 112.41267, Bollinger middle at 112.24175 and SMA200 at 114.14868. The close sequence is mixed, so recent closes have not produced a clean directional run. Position below the averages keeps the structural read bearish rather than neutral, while the SMA200 at 114.14868 remains the highest average and keeps longer-term pressure overhead.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 confirms the bearish tactical bias but within a bounded corridor. The H4 close at 112.225 sits above H4 support at 112.18 and below H4 resistance at 112.235, and it is below the EMA20 at 112.56512, EMA50 at 112.64723 and Bollinger middle at 112.77605. MACD at -0.222841 is below its signal at -0.136873 with a negative histogram, and RSI at 39.71 is below 50, consistent with short-term downside pressure. This supports the D1 thesis tactically rather than independently, and the close above H4 support means the H4 has not yet produced its downside trigger.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 trend is bearish, momentum is mixed and volatility is stable. The D1 close sits below its averages and middle band while D1 MACD is above its signal, and H4 is tactically bearish with MACD below its signal. Weekly structure is framed by 111.735 and 112.562 on D1, with 112.18 and 112.235 defining the H4 corridor.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 11 November 2026.
- RSI48.19Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands46% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR70.9 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 39.71
D1 RSI sits below the midline, consistent with the bearish D1 trend but without reading as extreme. H4 RSI is more clearly below 50, reflecting the tactical weakness visible in the H4 close relationships.
- D1 RSI
- 48.19
- H4 RSI
- 39.71
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD sits above its signal with a positive value and positive histogram, so momentum has not rolled over into a bearish configuration even though price remains below its averages. This is the core of the mixed momentum state. H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, aligning with the tactical bearish read. The two timeframes therefore point in opposite directions on momentum, and that conflict is the main reason the weekly conviction is moderated.
- MACD
- 0.247593
- Signal
- 0.208472
- Histogram
- 0.039121
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
On D1, the close sits below the middle band at 112.24175, in the lower half of the band structure, which fits bearish pressure while price remains inside the bands. The D1 upper band at 113.51498 coincides with the third resistance candidate, adding weight to that upper reference. On H4, the close is below the middle band at 112.77605, reinforcing the tactical bearish reading.
- Position in band
- 46%
- Band width
- 254.6 pips (2.27%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA rising112.413Price is 27.8 pips below (-0.25%)
- 200 SMA falling114.149Price is 201.4 pips below (-1.76%)
The average stack favours the bearish read: the D1 close is below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. The EMA50 is rising yet still above price, so the shorter average is recovering toward the close rather than leading it. The SMA200 is falling at 114.14868, keeping longer-term pressure overhead. On H4, the close is below both EMA20 and EMA50, so short-term averages add resistance above the current close.
- D1 close
- 112.135
- 50 EMA
- 112.413
- 200 SMA
- 114.149
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
D1 ATR of 0.70936 and H4 ATR of 0.31848 sit within a stable volatility state. Stable volatility suggests the environment is neither compressing into a tight coil nor expanding rapidly, so moves toward the range boundaries may develop at a measured pace rather than through abrupt expansion. Volatility alone gives no directional signal.
- D1 ATR
- 0.70936 (0.63%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.31848 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis is a bearish D1 read, anchored by the close below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, with 111.735 and 112.562 as the decisive D1 boundaries. The strongest supporting evidence is the D1 close beneath the average stack together with bearish H4 tactics. The strongest counterargument is D1 MACD remaining above its signal and positive, which prevents momentum from confirming a full breakdown. The next levels that matter are 111.735 on D1 for downside structure, 112.562 for upside structure, and 112.18 and 112.235 on H4 for timing.
View all live CAD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
CAD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111.735 | Primary support | D1 | Boundary for bearish D1 confirmation; the D1 close at 112.135 remains above it. |
| 111.039 | Secondary support | D1 | Bearish reference target and extension level if D1 structure breaks below primary support. |
| 110.65 | Third support candidate | D1 | Lower bearish reference target, relevant only if bearish structure extends beyond 111.039. |
| 112.562 | Primary resistance | D1 | Boundary for bullish D1 confirmation; the D1 close sits below it. |
| 113.082 | Secondary resistance | D1 | First bullish reference target and secondary resistance on D1. |
| 113.51498 | Third resistance candidate | D1 | Upper bullish reference target that also matches the D1 upper Bollinger band. |
| 112.18 | H4 support | H4 | Tactical bearish trigger boundary; the H4 close at 112.225 sits above it. |
| 112.235 | H4 resistance | H4 | Tactical bullish trigger boundary; the H4 close at 112.225 sits below it. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for CAD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase CAD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Median CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Trimmed CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Common CPI y/y | 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 09 Nov 2026 15:11 GMT+3. View the complete CAD/JPY economic calendar.
CAD/JPY Outlook for 9–14 November 2026
Bearish D1 structure remains the controlling weekly read, supported by the close beneath the main averages and the middle band. The thesis is not one-sided, because mixed closes and D1 momentum above its signal leave room for a range-bound week.
Bearish H4 tactics add short-term pressure, but the H4 close sits between 112.18 and 112.235, so the tactical signal has not yet produced a D1 structural outcome. Completed D1 closes at 111.735 and 112.562 will determine whether the weekly picture strengthens or moves back into range. The CPI releases on 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 fall after the window and represent a post-period catalyst.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Momentum conflict on D1: D1 MACD above its signal and positive contradicts the price structure below the averages, so a breakdown may lack follow-through.
- Timeframe disagreement: H4 is bearish while D1 momentum is not, so H4 moves between 112.18 and 112.235 could mislead the weekly read if completed D1 closes do not follow.
- Post-window event risk: The CAD CPI releases on 16 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 fall after validity, and with no consensus or prior values available, their potential reaction cannot be assessed.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 113.86966. One completed D1 close below 111.10432 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is CAD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The bias is bearish. D1 trend is bearish, with the close below its key averages and middle band, but conviction is not high because D1 momentum is mixed and H4 is still working within a narrow pair of levels.
What scenario would strengthen for CAD/JPY this week?
The base scenario is consolidation between 111.735 and 112.562 on D1, with H4 oscillating around 112.18 and 112.235. The bearish extension gains relevance only after a completed D1 close below 111.735, while the bullish extension requires a completed D1 close above 112.562 and an H4 close above 112.235.
What are the key CAD/JPY support and resistance levels?
On D1, primary support is 111.735 and primary resistance is 112.562, with secondary levels at 111.039 and 113.082. On H4, support at 112.18 and resistance at 112.235 frame short-term behaviour. Bearish reference targets are 111.039 and 110.65; bullish reference targets are 113.082 and 113.51498.
What would invalidate this CAD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 113.86966.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (CADJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 11 Nov 2026 06:10 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 11 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 09 Nov 2026 15:11 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.50× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
