D1 structure remains neutral despite positive momentum, while bullish H4 context supports the upside case but does not resolve the broader mixed picture.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is neutral: positive D1 momentum and bullish H4 context support upside attempts, but mixed D1 structure and the close below the D1 SMA200 keep direction unresolved.
CAD/JPY closed at 112.78, above the D1 support candidates at 112.32958 and 111.7826 and below the D1 resistance at 113.16332. The D1 trend is neutral and its close sequence is mixed, so the current position between these levels does not establish a directional resolution.
Momentum is positive on D1, with MACD above its signal and RSI above 50, while the close is above EMA20 and EMA50 but below SMA200. H4 is bullish tactically, although its MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative; that combination supports an upside context without removing the D1 uncertainty.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1114.15266
- T2114.647
- Bearish targets
-
- T1111.7826
- T2111.039
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 114.49119 or below 111.76847.
Selected key events
- Employment Change6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Unemployment Rate6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 112.692 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 112.780 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 112.330 |
| Secondary support | 111.783 |
| Primary resistance | 113.163 |
| Bullish targets | 114.15266, 114.647 |
| Bearish targets | 111.7826, 111.039 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 114.491 — One completed D1 close above 114.491 formally invalidates the neutral weekly thesis. Lower 111.768 — One completed D1 close below 111.768 formally invalidates the neutral weekly thesis. |
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CAD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to CAD/JPY during 31 October–7 November 2026 include BOC Gov Macklem Speaks, BOC Gov Macklem Speaks, Annual Budget Release. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | 3 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | 5 Nov 2026 18:30 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| Annual Budget Release | 6 Nov 2026 00:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 14.5K | -68.3K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 6.5% | 6.5% |
Current CAD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 sets a neutral weekly structure: the close is above the supplied support candidates and below primary resistance, while the close sequence is mixed. Positive D1 momentum and a close above EMA20 and EMA50 lend constructive evidence, but price remains below SMA200. H4 is bullish tactically and price is above its supplied support, yet H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, a counterweight that makes the tactical support less uniform. Stable volatility describes the environment rather than direction. CAD and JPY events later in the period add potential repricing risk.
- D1 trendneutralClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumpositiveRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is CAD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The neutral base case is supported by mixed D1 closes and price trading below resistance while above support. Positive D1 momentum and bullish H4 context make upside development plausible, but the D1 SMA200 position and H4 MACD weakness counsel against treating that tactical alignment as a resolved weekly trend. A move through resistance or a loss of support would make directional alternatives more relevant; scheduled CAD and JPY events may affect the pace of those tests.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 113.16332 would provide structural evidence that price has moved beyond primary resistance; follow-through toward the listed bullish references would make the upside scenario more relevant.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is already classified bullish, with its close above H4 support at 112.563 and below H4 resistance at 112.873. A move through that H4 resistance while H4 momentum improves relative to its signal would add tactical support, but would not alone establish D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 114.15266, 114.647
- Scenario failure condition
- A return below the 112.32958 primary support would materially weaken the bullish scenario, particularly if D1 price action remains mixed rather than resolving above resistance.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A continued mixed D1 close sequence, with price holding between 112.32958 support and 113.16332 resistance, would be consistent with consolidation rather than a directional break.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 can remain tactically bullish while its MACD stays below its signal and its histogram negative; that internal tension would fit a two-sided base if price remains between H4 support at 112.563 and resistance at 112.873.
- Targets
- The base case is consolidation between the primary D1 support at 112.32958 and primary resistance at 113.16332, without treating either boundary as a confirmed break.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close beyond either edge of the 112.32958–113.16332 primary-level range would materially weaken the consolidation interpretation.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below 112.32958 would be the first structural development supporting the bearish alternative; a move toward the listed bearish references would become more relevant if lower levels then came into focus.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is currently bullish, so a move below its support at 112.563 would be an early tactical warning for the bearish alternative, not sufficient by itself to change the D1 weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 111.7826, 111.039
- Scenario failure condition
- Holding above 112.32958 while D1 momentum remains positive would materially weaken the bearish scenario, especially if price continues to trade below rather than break the primary resistance.
CAD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close of 112.78 sits above primary support at 112.32958 and below primary resistance at 113.16332. The mixed close sequence is consistent with the neutral trend classification rather than a confirmed directional progression. Price is above EMA20 and EMA50, and EMA50’s slope is rising, but remains below SMA200, whose slope is falling. Positive D1 MACD positioning and RSI above 50 support momentum, while the SMA200 relationship and mixed sequence temper that evidence.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bullish tactically, with the close above H4 EMA20, EMA50, Bollinger middle and support at 112.563, while remaining below resistance at 112.873. That configuration offers short-term support to the constructive side of the D1 momentum picture. However, H4 MACD is below its signal and the histogram is negative despite positive MACD and RSI above 50, indicating a tactical loss of momentum relative to the signal. H4 therefore adds support with a warning, rather than replacing the neutral D1 thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 momentum is positive: MACD and its histogram are positive, MACD is above its signal, and RSI is above 50. Price is above EMA20, EMA50 and the Bollinger middle but below SMA200. H4 price is above its listed support and moving averages, yet MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram. Together these readings favor constructive attempts within a still-neutral D1 structure; stable volatility offers no directional confirmation.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI60.56Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands86% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBetweenNeutral
- ATR67.7 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 56.88
D1 and H4 RSI are both above 50, consistent with positive momentum readings. This supports the constructive side of the setup but does not override the neutral D1 trend or mixed close sequence.
- D1 RSI
- 60.56
- H4 RSI
- 56.88
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is above its signal, with positive MACD and histogram, supporting the D1 momentum state. H4 MACD remains positive but is below its signal and has a negative histogram, which flags weaker tactical momentum relative to the signal despite the bullish H4 classification.
- MACD
- 0.21705
- Signal
- 0.044505
- Histogram
- 0.172545
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is above the Bollinger middle and below the upper band, consistent with positive positioning within the supplied bands but not a break of the listed resistance. H4 close is above its Bollinger middle and below its upper band, adding tactical firmness without resolving D1 structure.
- Position in band
- 86%
- Band width
- 276.1 pips (2.47%)
Moving averages (D1)
Neutral structure
- 50 EMA rising112.330Price is 45.0 pips above (+0.40%)
- 200 SMA falling114.153Price is 137.3 pips below (-1.20%)
D1 price above EMA20 and EMA50, together with a rising EMA50 slope, supports the positive momentum evidence. The close remains below SMA200, whose slope is falling, leaving a longer-average constraint that aligns with the neutral rather than decisively bullish trend classification. H4 price is above both supplied EMAs, supporting its bullish tactical state.
- D1 close
- 112.780
- 50 EMA
- 112.330
- 200 SMA
- 114.153
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable on both the supplied D1 state and the current forecast context. ATR provides a measure of the observed trading environment, not directional evidence; the listed scenario targets are structural candidates, not ATR projections.
- D1 ATR
- 0.67707 (0.60%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.311 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 picture is neutral because mixed closes and price below SMA200 offset positive momentum and price above EMA20 and EMA50. H4 price action is tactically supportive, but MACD below its signal and a negative histogram leave a meaningful caution. The next supplied D1 boundaries are 112.32958 support and 113.16332 resistance; a move beyond either would clarify the currently two-sided structure, while stable volatility does not independently favor a direction.
View all live CAD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
CAD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112.32958 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close is above this first support candidate; a completed D1 close below it would strengthen the bearish alternative. |
| 111.7826 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the next supplied support and also appears among the bearish target candidates; it provides a reference if downside pressure develops. |
| 113.16332 | Primary resistance | D1 | The D1 close remains below this first resistance candidate; progress beyond it would add structural evidence to the bullish alternative. |
| 114.15266 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This level is the next supplied resistance and a bullish target candidate, so it is relevant if price advances beyond primary resistance. |
| 112.563 | Support | H4 | H4 close is above this tactical support, consistent with the bullish H4 state. |
| 112.873 | Resistance | H4 | H4 close is below this tactical resistance; a move beyond it could add short-term support to the constructive D1 momentum picture, without replacing D1 confirmation. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for CAD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase CAD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | -68.3K | 14.5K |
| Unemployment Rate | 6 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | 6 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | 3 Nov 2026 19:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | 5 Nov 2026 18:30 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Showing 5 of 7 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:16 GMT+3. View the complete CAD/JPY economic calendar.
CAD/JPY Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
The weekly structure remains unresolved at the D1 level: price is between 112.32958 support and 113.16332 resistance, and the close sequence is mixed. Positive D1 momentum, price above EMA20 and EMA50, and bullish H4 positioning provide constructive evidence, but price below SMA200 and the weaker H4 MACD relationship argue against treating that evidence as decisive.
The neutral reading would be challenged by a completed D1 close beyond either primary boundary. Until then, H4 can help describe tactical pressure but does not settle the weekly direction. The scheduled CAD releases and central-bank speakers, together with the BOJ Governor’s remarks, may bring repricing or volatility during the period; their outcomes and direction are unknown.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 structure: The neutral D1 trend and mixed close sequence do not confirm continuation in either direction despite positive momentum.
- H4 momentum tension: H4 is classified bullish and price is above its supplied support, but H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative, creating a tactical warning.
- SMA200 position: D1 price remains below SMA200 even though it is above EMA20 and EMA50, leaving conflicting moving-average context.
- Scheduled event concentration: Several CAD events and a BOJ Governor speech are scheduled during the forecast period and may contribute to repricing or faster level tests without a known directional outcome.
Formal weekly invalidation: The neutral weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 114.49119 or below 111.76847.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is CAD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is neutral. Positive D1 momentum and bullish H4 context are offset by mixed D1 structure and a close below the D1 SMA200.
What scenario would strengthen for CAD/JPY this week?
A bullish scenario would gain relevance if D1 price action progresses through the 113.16332 resistance area, while a bearish alternative would strengthen if support gives way. Continued two-sided trade between the supplied levels would preserve the neutral case.
What are the key CAD/JPY support and resistance levels?
The primary D1 support is 112.32958 and primary resistance is 113.16332. Secondary levels are 111.7826 and 114.15266; the listed scenario targets are 114.15266 and 114.647 above, and 111.7826 and 111.039 below.
What would invalidate this CAD/JPY forecast?
The neutral weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 114.49119 or below 111.76847.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (CADJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:16 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.50× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
