Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD NZD price analysis reflects dynamics influenced significantly by economic releases and central bank communications from both Australia and New Zealand. Recently, the economic indicators show a mixed but potent impact on the currencies. Notably, the RBNZ Governor’s speech and unexpected retail sales data from New Zealand have provided support to the NZD, suggesting a potentially hawkish monetary stance. Meanwhile, Australia’s lower-than-expected Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a slight economic contraction, contrasting with a stronger Services PMI, indicating resilience in the service sector. These factors cumulatively guide the nuanced fundamental backdrop affecting the AUD-NZD exchange rate.
Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the AUDNZD chart forecast demonstrates a distinct movement towards the lower Bollinger Band, touching this boundary multiple times in recent sessions, indicating strong selling pressure. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility with a bearish bias as price action continues to test these lower limits. The formation of the recent bearish candles, particularly with significant shadows, underscores a rejection at higher levels, pointing towards a continuation of the current downtrend.
Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The widening of the bands coupled with frequent touches of the lower band underscores heightened volatility and a strong downward momentum. This repeated testing indicates robust support levels that may soon become a pivot point for price action.
MACD: The MACD line remains below the signal line, affirming the bearish sentiment in the market. The proximity to the zero line also suggests a lack of strong momentum upwards, reinforcing the current bearish trend.
RSI: The RSI is currently hovering near the 40 level, which often suggests bearish momentum but not yet oversold, implying there could be more room for downward movement before a potential reversal.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The current and previous touches of the lower Bollinger Band around the 1.0800 mark act as a critical support zone.
Resistance: On the upside, the recent highs near the 1.0850 level form a temporary resistance, beyond which further recovery might face hurdles.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDNZD forecast chart on the H4 timeframe, shows a strong bearish trend underpinned by both technical and fundamental factors. The approaching speech by RBNZ Governor Orr and recent positive retail sales figures in New Zealand contrast with weaker economic signs from Australia, likely fueling the NZD’s strength against the AUD. Traders should monitor these levels closely, considering the potential for increased volatility around upcoming economic events and central bank communications.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, and it is advised to conduct thorough research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
