Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

Today, USD and CHF face significant market-moving events. The USD will react to employment-related reports, including Job Cut Announcements, Initial Jobless Claims, and productivity and labor cost statistics. Lower-than-forecast jobless claims and higher productivity readings typically strengthen the dollar. CHF traders will closely observe the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which significantly influences the Swiss Franc valuation due to inflation implications. Additionally, insights from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meetings might trigger increased volatility, making it vital to follow these events for informed trading decisions.

Price Action:

Analyzing USDCHF on the H4 timeframe reveals the pair trading within a defined range, consistently reacting when hitting the Bollinger Bands (350). Currently, bullish price action is evident, characterized by swift upward movements interspersed with minor corrections. Considering past market reactions, an upward trajectory toward the resistance at 0.80706 is anticipated, aligning with historical highs and previous reversal points.

Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands (350): The Bollinger Bands are currently narrowing, signifying potential decreased volatility before a decisive breakout. Price candles are approaching the mid-band, suggesting possible continuation upward toward the upper band.

Stochastic (21,3,3): With current readings at 96.35 and 92.63, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates USDCHF is significantly overbought. Traders should be cautious as these levels could forecast a potential corrective pullback.

RSI (21): The RSI currently stands at 62.12, signaling strength in the bullish momentum. Although it has room to reach higher values before reaching overbought territory (70), traders should remain vigilant about potential reversals.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support aligns with recent market activity around 0.79300, near the lower Bollinger Band, providing a significant level of interest.

Resistance: Key resistance stands firmly at 0.80706, marking a previous high level where historical reversals occurred.

Conclusion and Consideration:

USDCHF’s H4 chart analysis suggests a continuation of bullish momentum toward resistance at 0.80706, supported by Bollinger Bands, RSI, and current price action. Nevertheless, the significantly overbought Stochastic oscillator indicates possible short-term pullbacks. Fundamental events today, particularly USD employment data and CHF CPI release, could introduce volatility and should be monitored closely.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently influenced by anticipated economic reports from Australia, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Building Approvals data. CPI figures significantly impact the AUD since inflation directly affects monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Positive CPI results, indicating rising inflation, typically strengthen the Australian dollar due to expectations of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, upcoming USD data releases, such as employment figures, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and crude oil inventories, will influence USD strength. Traders should monitor these data points closely, as better-than-forecast results would provide robust support for the US dollar.

Price Action:

The AUDUSD pair’s price action analysis on the H4 chart reveals a clear upward trajectory within an ascending channel with a notable sharp steepness. Currently, the price resides in the middle area of the channel, indicating potential indecision or temporary consolidation. A continued upward movement would require breaking above this midpoint decisively, whereas bearish pressure might see prices retreat towards the immediate support level at the channel’s lower trend line.

Key Technical Indicators:

Parabolic SAR: The dots are plotted below the candles, clearly signaling ongoing bullish momentum and support for the current upward trend. Traders should watch for any reversal of the dots above the candles, which would indicate a bearish shift.

Stochastic (5,3,3): The indicator shows readings at 86.70 and 79.62, placing the AUDUSD in the overbought territory. This indicates potential upcoming bearish corrections, though prices may still remain bullish for a brief period. Traders must remain cautious and watch for stochastic crossover signals.

Williams %R (14): At a current reading of -6.89, Williams %R is also deeply in overbought conditions, suggesting imminent short-term reversal potential. Traders should prepare for possible pullbacks or consolidation at current price levels.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support is established at the lower trend line of the ascending channel around the 0.6670 area, serving as a strong barrier against bearish pressures.

Resistance: Key resistance level is currently situated at the upper trend line of the channel near the 0.6768 mark, representing the primary target for bullish continuation.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The AUDUSD H4 chart presents bullish momentum within an ascending channel, supported by Parabolic SAR indicators. However, overbought conditions noted by Stochastic and Williams %R indicators suggest caution, as a potential bearish correction or consolidation could occur. Fundamental data releases related to AUD and USD are critical factors to watch, as strong outcomes could influence immediate price direction significantly.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/GBP currency pair is currently navigating a low-liquidity environment due to today’s Epiphany Day bank holiday in Italy, leading to irregular volatility across the Euro markets. Although most forex brokers remain open, bank closures reduce overall transaction volumes, making the market more susceptible to speculative price swings. Moreover, no high-impact GBP data is scheduled today, with the most relevant upcoming release being the UK Services PMI on February 4, 2026. For the Eurozone, traders will closely monitor upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases from Germany and France later this month, which are crucial indicators of inflation and will influence future ECB monetary policy. In the absence of major economic data today, technical signals may take precedence in guiding short-term price movements for EUR-GBP H4 analysis.

Price Action:

EURGBP has shown strong bearish momentum over recent H4 candles, with a notable drop from around 0.87400 to the current level of 0.86539. The pair has consistently printed bearish candles, forming a steep downward channel. Price has broken below key psychological and technical support levels and currently consolidates near the lows. This sharp decline and clean break of structure indicate dominant seller control, reinforcing bearish sentiment in this H4 timeframe analysis.

Key Technical Indicators:

Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 21): The short-term 9-period moving average is trending below the longer-term 21-period moving average, both sloping downward. This crossover and alignment confirm a strong bearish trend on the EURGBP H4 chart. The moving averages have also acted as dynamic resistance during recent pullbacks, supporting ongoing downward pressure.

RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI is currently at 20.45, which places it in the oversold territory. This level suggests extreme bearish conditions and could signal an upcoming price correction or temporary consolidation. However, in strong trends, the RSI can remain oversold for extended periods.

MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line is positioned well below the signal line, with both lines in negative territory. The histogram shows increasing bearish momentum, confirming the strength of the downtrend. No divergence is present, indicating there are no early signs of a reversal at this stage.

Support and Resistance:

Support: The nearest support level is observed around 0.86500, followed by a more critical level at 0.86400, where price may attempt to stabilize or bounce.

Resistance: Immediate resistance lies near 0.87100, and a stronger resistance level can be seen around 0.87300, aligning with recent consolidation zones and the moving average area.

Conclusion and Consideration:

In conclusion, the EURGBP pair on the H4 chart exhibits a firm bearish trend, as validated by price action, moving averages, MACD, and RSI indicators. Although RSI is in oversold territory, there are no clear reversal signals yet. Traders should watch for potential price consolidation or corrective pullbacks toward resistance zones, particularly if volatility decreases due to low liquidity. However, any sustained break below 0.86400 may invite further selling pressure. In the context of daily H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis, EUR GBP is likely to remain bearish unless significant bullish catalysts emerge.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

Today’s economic calendar for the USDJPY pair highlights the upcoming Manufacturing PMI reports from both Japan (Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI) and the US (ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices Paid). These indicators are vital, as a reading above 50.0 suggests industry expansion and could positively impact their respective currencies. Traders will closely monitor the PMI data, as better-than-forecasted numbers typically strengthen the currency, potentially influencing USDJPY volatility.

Price Action:

Analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart, the pair has recently moved in a bullish trajectory until reaching a strong resistance at 157.573. After this, the pair entered into consolidation, struggling to break through this significant resistance level. Price has since retraced slightly downward, forming a classical bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Given the current momentum, it is unlikely for the pair to significantly breach the established resistance if another bullish move is attempted.

Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (14): Currently at 61.12, the RSI indicates moderately bullish momentum. Although still below the overbought threshold (70), the RSI’s position implies there is limited upside potential, supporting the bearish reversal indicated by the price action.

Stochastic (5,3,3): The stochastic oscillator is currently at 64.69 and 66.66, reflecting moderate bullish sentiment but indicating possible weakening of buying pressure. The indicator’s current positioning suggests that the market could be preparing for a bearish correction, aligning with the emerging head and shoulders pattern.

Bollinger Bands (70): The bands are closely positioned (156.736 lower, 156.906 middle, and 156.896 upper), signaling decreased volatility and indicating potential consolidation. Given the narrow range of the bands, traders should prepare for a breakout or notable movement soon, most likely to the downside due to current price patterns.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support is seen near the lower Bollinger Band at 156.736, with a stronger support level around the recent consolidation area at 156.300.

Resistance: The key resistance remains at the significant 157.573 level, the recent high and the main barrier to further bullish progression.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The current USDJPY H4 chart indicates that a bearish reversal may be imminent, supported by the head and shoulders formation and weakening momentum indicators (RSI and Stochastic). Traders should remain cautious of the potential volatility following today’s PMI releases from both Japan and the US. This could significantly influence short-term trading conditions. Investors should closely monitor these developments, maintaining tight stop-losses around established resistance and support levels.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The GOLD/USD (Spot Gold vs US Dollar) market is under the influence of several key macroeconomic indicators today. U.S. crude oil inventories data is scheduled, and a lower-than-forecast number could signal reduced energy demand, indirectly influencing inflation expectations and, by extension, gold prices. Additionally, real estate-related releases including the House Price Index (HPI) from FHFA and the S&P Case-Shiller Index are due later, which may affect USD sentiment depending on housing market strength. Investors are also eyeing Chicago PMI data for clues about regional economic activity and momentum. Given gold’s inverse relationship with the USD, stronger-than-expected US economic data may exert downward pressure on gold, while any signs of weakness could bolster its safe-haven appeal.

Price Action:

GOLD on the H4 chart is currently trading within a well-established ascending price channel. After reaching a new all-time high around 4549.00, the price sharply corrected downwards, touching the lower boundary of the ascending channel where it found support. The most recent three candlesticks have turned green, indicating a potential bullish reversal or at least a corrective bounce from the channel’s lower trendline. The market structure suggests bullish continuation remains valid unless price breaks and closes below the lower channel support.

Key Technical Indicators:

Moving Averages (9 & 21): The 9-period EMA (blue) has recently crossed below the 21-period EMA (orange), a short-term bearish crossover indicating downside momentum. However, with the price rebounding off the channel support and three consecutive bullish candles forming, this could signal an early shift in momentum if confirmed by further upside movement.

Relative Strength Index (RSI 28): The RSI is currently at 46.21, which is just below the neutral 50 level. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, and has room to recover. A break above 50 would support bullish momentum resumption in the XAU/USD H4 chart outlook.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator is at 24.25 (K) and 17.35 (D), positioning it in the oversold territory. This indicates that a short-term bullish reversal may be underway, especially as it aligns with the price bouncing off the ascending channel’s support line.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support lies at the ascending channel’s lower boundary near the 4300.00 region, acting as a strong technical floor.

Resistance: Overhead resistance is noted near the recent swing high around 4549.00, aligning with the upper boundary of the bullish channel.

Conclusion and Consideration:

GOLD (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour chart shows signs of a technical correction within a broader bullish trend channel. After a significant pullback from all-time highs, the price action suggests a potential rebound, supported by oversold Stochastic levels and key support holding firm. The moving averages indicate short-term weakness, but this may shift if price continues upward in upcoming sessions. Traders should monitor today’s USD news releases, especially energy and housing data, as they could provide volatility triggers. As always, use sound risk management, particularly in response to macroeconomic data and the market’s reaction.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD currency pair remains sensitive to today’s economic releases. For the USD, the FHFA House Price Index (HPI) and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index could influence the USD, with stronger than forecasted figures typically supporting the currency. Additionally, the Chicago PMI and Crude Oil Inventories data from EIA will affect market sentiment and volatility. On the EUR side, investors are closely watching the CPI Flash release, as higher-than-expected inflation could push the EUR higher, influencing expectations about future ECB monetary policy.

Price Action:

EURUSD has been in an ascending bullish channel on the H4 chart with occasional breakout failures. Currently, the last bearish candle is attempting a decisive break below the channel’s lower line. Confirmed by a regular bearish divergence, bearish momentum is strengthening, with the immediate target set around the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%. However, a continuation of bullish price action within the channel could retarget the recent high at 1.18215.

Key Technical Indicators:

Adaptive Moving Average (9): The adaptive moving average line remains slightly above current candles, indicating potential resistance and suggesting short-term bearish pressure.

MACD (12,26,9): MACD is currently at -0.000215 with a signal line of 0.000191, pointing toward a potential bearish crossover. This weakening momentum supports the scenario of a further bearish correction.

RSI (14): The RSI indicator is currently at 43.42, reflecting neutral market sentiment with a slightly bearish bias. It indicates there is room for further downside movement before approaching oversold territory.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support is positioned at the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level near 1.17180, aligning with previous consolidation levels.

Resistance: Key resistance remains firm at the recent high level of 1.18215, serving as the primary bullish target.

Conclusion and Consideration:

Technical analysis of EURUSD on the H4 chart currently favors bearish momentum in the short term, confirmed by bearish divergence and weakening indicators such as MACD and RSI. Traders should closely monitor key economic releases today, particularly US housing data and EUR CPI figures, as they may significantly impact volatility and directional movements. Caution is advised given the potential for rapid shifts in market sentiment.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The NZD/USD currency pair analysis indicates potential low liquidity due to New Zealand banks being closed in observance of Christmas Day, resulting in irregular volatility today. Traders should be cautious, as the absence of regular market participants may lead to unexpected market movements. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, scheduled for release on December 31, 2025, is expected to provide important signals regarding the U.S. economic health, potentially influencing USD strength.

Price Action:

Analyzing NZDUSD price action on the H4 chart reveals sustained bullish momentum characterized by shallow corrective phases. Recently, the candles exhibited a sharp upward movement, confirming a hidden bullish divergence. Currently, the price is testing the Fibonacci expansion level of 38.2, where momentum remains robust. Given this strong momentum, the NZDUSD pair may experience minor corrections or advance further towards the next Fibonacci expansion levels.

Key Technical Indicators:

Parabolic SAR: The dots are positioned below the candles, clearly signaling continued bullish strength and upward momentum for NZDUSD. Traders may interpret this as an indicator of potential continuation rather than reversal.

MACD (12,26,9): The MACD indicator is currently at 0.001627, above the signal line at 0.000851, supporting bullish momentum. The histogram bars are expanding positively, suggesting increasing bullish sentiment in the market.

William %R (14): With a reading of -4.04, the Williams %R indicator is currently in the overbought territory. This suggests bullish dominance but also implies potential for minor pullbacks as traders may begin profit-taking.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate technical support for NZDUSD is identified around the previous resistance-turned-support level near 0.5800. This level could act as a floor for short-term corrective movements.

Resistance: The next notable resistance level is seen around the Fibonacci expansion level of 61.8, slightly above the current trading zone at approximately 0.5865.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The H4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for NZDUSD shows strong bullish momentum, supported by the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Williams %R indicators. While the pair currently faces minor resistance at the 38.2 Fibonacci expansion level, ongoing upward momentum may facilitate further gains. Traders should, however, be cautious due to low liquidity and possible volatility spikes driven by the holiday season.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating near the $3,000 psychological level against the US Dollar amid a flurry of high-impact USD economic events scheduled for today. The US dollar may see increased volatility due to several key economic data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. These include the ADP National Employment Report (NER Pulse), GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production. A stronger-than-expected ADP employment change or GDP release could strengthen the USD, thereby exerting downside pressure on ETHUSD. Conversely, any weakness in these reports may support ETH prices in the short term. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, ETH USD traders should remain cautious and monitor today’s releases closely as they could heavily influence market sentiment and direction.

Price Action:

The Ethereum price has been fluctuating horizontally following a significant downtrend. Price action on the H4 chart indicates that ETHUSD has broken below the $3,300 level, which now acts as a strong resistance. The price is currently consolidating just under the $3,000 psychological barrier, with multiple failed attempts to break above. A bearish descending channel has formed, suggesting a continuation pattern. The lower boundary around $2,800 acts as a key support zone, holding prices from further decline. Price movement remains cautious and traders are awaiting clear signals either from macroeconomic news or a breakout of the descending channel.

Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: ETHUSD is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which has turned red — indicating bearish momentum. The cloud is narrowing, suggesting a potential squeeze or breakout. While the lower band of the cloud is beginning to curve upwards, the price remains under pressure and below the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines. A breakout above the cloud is necessary to confirm a shift in momentum toward bullish territory.

MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently at 11.350, and the signal line is at -9.403, showing signs of a possible bullish crossover. The histogram bars are gradually turning positive, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. If the crossover confirms, it could indicate a short-term reversal or at least a test of upper resistance levels.

RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index stands at 51.08, reflecting a neutral stance. The RSI is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, implying a lack of strong directional momentum. Traders should wait for a breakout above 60 or a dip below 40 to confirm a trend continuation or reversal.

Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots had been consistently forming below the candles, supporting a bullish correction. However, the most recent SAR dot has flipped to appear above the current candle, signaling a possible end to the short-term bullish momentum and a potential return to bearish pressure.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: The $2,800 level acts as immediate support and has held strong during recent dips. A breakdown below this could open the way to $2,700 and lower levels.

Resistance: The $3,000 psychological level is the first major resistance, followed by $3,300, which aligns with the previous breakdown zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The ETH-USD H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis suggests that the pair is in a consolidation phase below key psychological and technical levels. Despite signs of weakening bearish momentum, Ethereum remains confined within a descending channel with no confirmed breakout. MACD and RSI hint at a potential reversal, but confirmation is still needed. Given today’s packed US economic calendar — with ADP employment, GDP, durable goods orders, and factory output data due — traders should be cautious and expect potential volatility. A strong USD reaction could suppress ETH, while weak USD data might offer Ethereum a chance to reclaim $3,000 and challenge $3,300 again.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/USD currency pair captures the dynamic between the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD). Today’s key economic data impacting the GBP include the Current Account balance, GDP figures, and Business Investment numbers from the Office for National Statistics, with releases due on March 31, 2026. A positive surprise above forecasts in these indicators could strengthen the GBP, driven by increased investor confidence. Conversely, uncertainty around these figures may limit bullish movements in GBPUSD. Traders should stay alert to USD-related news and economic conditions, which consistently impact forex market dynamics.

Price Action:

The GBPUSD H4 analysis reveals a bullish price channel, maintaining a general uptrend with corrective downturns occurring periodically. Recent price action includes failed breakouts at the channel’s borders, signaling ongoing market uncertainty. Currently, a doji candle has emerged, reinforcing an indecisive market sentiment. Should the price confirm a clear directional move, the upper and lower bounds of the channel may serve as significant price targets for traders.

Key Technical Indicators:

Parabolic SAR: The dots are positioned above and below the candles, frequently alternating, reflecting indecisive market conditions. Recent positioning indicates potential bearish pressure as dots remain mostly above the price action.

Williams’ %R (14): At -54.83, this indicator is neutral, suggesting a balanced market without clear overbought or oversold conditions. Traders should look for extreme moves beyond -20 or -80 to identify potential trading signals.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Currently at 67.88 and 52.92, the indicator indicates bullish momentum, though lacking strong conviction as the lines are not sharply ascending. Traders should monitor closely for potential crossovers that could signify shifts in momentum.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support can be observed around the lower boundary of the bullish channel, aligning with recent consolidation areas.

Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel serves as a critical resistance, marking recent highs and potential profit-taking zones.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The GBPUSD H4 forecast indicates continued indecision within the bullish channel. Technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR, Williams’ %R, and Stochastic confirm market uncertainty, suggesting traders exercise caution. The anticipated economic releases concerning the GBP could be potential catalysts for directional movement, making it essential to stay updated with fundamental news developments. Trading near support or resistance areas could provide tactical opportunities for traders awaiting clearer market signals.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

Time Zone: GMT +2

Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair is poised for potential volatility today, with impactful macroeconomic events on both sides. On the JPY side, key releases from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), including the Interest Rate Decision, Interest Rate Statement, and Press Conference, are scheduled. These releases will be closely watched for any hawkish or dovish signals on monetary policy, especially amid ongoing inflationary concerns in Japan. Additionally, the CPI (Consumer Price Index), excluding fresh food, will provide insights into domestic price pressures. From the USD perspective, Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, Existing Home Sales, and commentary from FOMC member John Williams could influence investor sentiment. Any hawkish tone from the Fed or strong economic indicators may support USD strength. Together, these events create a highly reactive environment for USDJPY H4 analysis.

Price Action:

The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair has recently pulled back after testing the 157.860 level, marked as the 100% Fibonacci retracement. Since then, the price has formed lower highs, indicating some bearish correction within a broader bullish trend. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci level has acted as a key support, holding the price multiple times. Currently, price action shows that the pair is attempting to break above the Ichimoku Cloud, which may open the way for renewed bullish momentum if successfully broken. Until then, the cloud acts as dynamic resistance, and price needs to close decisively above it for confirmation of trend continuation.

Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is currently testing the Ichimoku Cloud from below. The cloud is relatively flat, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias. A clean breakout above the cloud would indicate a bullish continuation, while rejection could signal further consolidation or downside. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are entangled, suggesting indecision in the current market direction.

MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line is at 0.0837, and the signal line is at 0.0400, showing a bullish crossover with increasing histogram bars. This suggests bullish momentum is slowly returning, although the overall trend still lacks strong conviction. A further divergence between the MACD and signal lines could validate upward price movement.

RSI (14): The RSI is currently at 55.36, indicating neutral to mildly bullish momentum. The RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting that the pair has room to move higher without facing immediate exhaustion. Continued RSI movement above 50 may support bullish continuation if supported by price action.

Support and Resistance:

Support: A strong support zone is seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 154.750, where the price has bounced multiple times.

Resistance: The next key resistance lies at 157.860 (Fibonacci 100%), which marked the recent swing high and remains a strong ceiling.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The USDJPY H4 chart technical analysis reflects a market in a temporary consolidation after a strong uptrend. While price has been forming lower highs, the repeated defense of the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and bullish signals from the MACD suggest a possible reversal to the upside if the Ichimoku Cloud is breached. With today’s high-impact economic events from both the Bank of Japan and the US Fed, traders should be cautious of volatility spikes and potential trend reversals. A decisive break above the cloud may confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the 157.860 level, while a rejection may lead to a retest of the 154.75 zone.

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