Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is poised for significant movement today due to high-impact economic data releases. The USD is expected to experience volatility with the release of Unemployment Claims, forecasted at 241K, which could provide insights into the US labor market’s health. Lower-than-expected claims would be positive for the USD, indicating a robust job market. On the NZD side, Inflation Expectations are due, and higher-than-expected results could bolster the NZD by increasing the likelihood of future rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Price Action:
The NZDUSD pair on the H4 timeframe shows a recent shift towards a bullish trend, having rebounded from the lows observed in late July. The price is currently hovering around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.60024, which acts as a critical pivot point. The pair has shown resilience in holding above the 0.5900 psychological support level and is testing resistance near the 0.6000 handle. The bullish momentum is evident as the price remains above the key moving averages.
Key Technical Indicators:
Alligator Indicator: The Alligator’s lips (green) have crossed above the teeth (red), which is above the jaws (blue), indicating a developing bullish trend. The alignment of these lines supports the upward momentum and suggests that the bullish trend might continue if the price holds above these levels.
MACD: The MACD is in positive territory with the MACD line above the signal line, reflecting bullish momentum. The histogram shows increasing bullish momentum, indicating potential further gains if the trend continues.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are below the price, which is a bullish signal. This indicator supports the current upward momentum and suggests that the price could continue to rise if the dots remain below the candles.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is seen at 0.59395 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and further at 0.59100.
Resistance: Key resistance levels are at 0.60024 (50% Fibonacci level) and 0.60740 (61.8% Fibonacci level).
Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZDUSD pair is exhibiting a bullish trend in the H4 timeframe, supported by positive signals from the Alligator, MACD, and Parabolic SAR indicators. The price action around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level will be crucial for determining the next move. Traders should watch for a sustained break above this level to confirm further bullishness. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases, particularly the US Unemployment Claims and NZD Inflation Expectations, could significantly impact the pair’s direction.
Disclaimer: The NZDUSD analysis provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. The financial markets can be highly volatile, and traders should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Always stay updated with the latest market news and trends to make informed trading decisions.
