Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair is influenced today by two critical economic indicators. From New Zealand, the NZIER Survey of Business Opinion, a leading quarterly indicator of economic sentiment, will offer insights into the nation’s business health and could strongly impact the NZD if the data significantly diverges from expectations. For the USD, traders will closely monitor the NFIB Small Business Index and comments by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly regarding future monetary policy signals. Additionally, the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report may indirectly affect USD sentiment via shifts in energy prices.
Price Action:
The NZD-USD H4 chart demonstrates a distinct bearish trend, as the pair recently experienced a strong downward movement followed by a mild correction upwards. The price is currently retesting a significant confluence zone, aligning precisely at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and a horizontal support line, creating a stronger support region. If the correction concludes, price action indicates a potential continuation of the bearish momentum, targeting initially the Fibonacci level at 161.8%.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR points remain positioned above the current candlesticks, clearly confirming ongoing bearish sentiment. This indicator will remain bearish as long as price continues trading below the SAR dots.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 35.20, the RSI indicator for NZDUSD H4 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating bearish momentum and room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram indicates bearish momentum, although bars are beginning to shorten slightly, suggesting reduced bearish pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor for a potential bullish crossover, signaling an upcoming shift in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic currently stands at 33.28, maintaining a bearish crossover, thus supporting ongoing bearish momentum. This indicator suggests that the pair may still have further downward movement potential before reaching oversold levels.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate, strong support at 0.5535-0.5570 region (confluence of 100% Fibonacci level and horizontal support). Further downside target support at Fibonacci 161.8%, around 0.5420.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5630 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), with higher resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level near 0.5680.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
