Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPAUD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound and the Australian Dollar. Key determinants of this pair include monetary policy decisions from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Additionally, trade relations, geopolitical events, and major economic indicators, such as employment statistics and inflation rates from both nations, significantly influence the pair’s movements. As the UK navigates post-Brexit economic scenarios and Australia’s reactions to commodity prices evolve, traders need to stay updated on these crucial developments.
Price Action:
The H4 chart for GBPAUD shows a general bearish trend, as evidenced by the recent downward movement. While there were intermittent bullish retracements, the dominant force appears to be sellers in the current timeframe.
Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku: The price is below the cloud, indicating a bearish trend. Moreover, the Tenkan-sen (green line) is below the Kijun-sen (blue line), reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Positioned at approximately 38.12, the RSI is in the middle zone. Although it’s not in the oversold or overbought territories, its current direction hints at a continuation of the bearish momentum.
Volumes: The volume bars suggest mixed trading activity. There are spikes in volumes at certain bearish candles, pointing towards a stronger bearish sentiment during those periods.
MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line and has been diverging further, which is a bearish signal. Additionally, the histogram shows an increasing bearish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Resistance: The 1.92500 level stands out as a prominent resistance, where the price faced multiple rejections.
Support: The 1.8890 region acts as the immediate support level, with price hovering close to this zone.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPAUD pair on the H4 timeframe exhibits a pronounced bearish tone. The price action below the Ichimoku cloud, combined with the RSI’s downward trajectory and the MACD’s bearish divergence, consolidates this view. Traders should remain watchful of the identified support and resistance levels while integrating the underlying fundamental factors from both the UK and Australia to obtain a comprehensive market understanding.
Disclaimer: We do not suggest any investment advice, and these analyses are just to increase the traders’ awareness but not a certain instruction for trading.
November 3, 2023
