USDCHF daily chart analysis for 13.05.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

For USD/CHF forecast today, upcoming economic events for both the U.S. and Switzerland could impact the currency pair significantly. In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate index and the SNB Chairman’s speech may provide insights into the economic sentiments and monetary policy expectations, respectively. A more hawkish stance from the SNB could strengthen the CHF. In the U.S., speeches by FOMC members, including Governors Jefferson and Mester, will be closely watched for hints on future monetary policies. Additionally, U.S. mortgage delinquencies data, though a lagging indicator, could influence market sentiment regarding the health of the housing market and, by extension, broader economic conditions.


Price Action:

The USD/CHF analysis has shown a clear downtrend on the H4 timeframe, marked by consecutive lower highs and lower lows within a declining channel. Recently, there’s a consolidation phase noticeable as the price moves closer to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for either a continuation of the trend or a temporary reversal if support levels hold.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The bands are currently narrow compared to last week, suggesting reduced volatility. The price trading near the lower band hints at a potential oversold condition which might precede a price rebound or stabilization.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a continuation below the signal line and near zero, indicating weak upward momentum and prevailing bearish sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 44, suggesting slight bearish momentum without entering the oversold territory, which supports the downtrend but also indicates caution for potential reversal signals.


Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: The first level of support can be found at the recent low around 0.90550, which if breached could see further decline towards 0.90000.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is observed at around 0.90850, which aligns with recent minor peaks. A more significant resistance level is at 0.91350, marked by the convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a previous support level.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD CHF analysis today is currently in a bearish trend with potential for further declines as indicated by key technical indicators and the current economic sentiment. However, the upcoming economic speeches and indicators from both the U.S. and Switzerland should be closely monitored as they may induce volatility and potentially shift market dynamics. Traders should maintain a cautious approach, monitoring for any signs of reversal or stronger bearish continuation, especially around key support and resistance levels. It’s crucial to adjust strategies based on both technical setups and fundamental news flows.

Disclaimer: The USD/CHF provided price action and technical analysis today is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


USDCHF Daily Technical Analysis -H4 - 13.05.2024.rtf

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