Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD currency pair remains sensitive today to several macroeconomic events coming from both the Eurozone and the United States. On the EUR side, traders are watching Germany’s Bund Auction and Italy’s Industrial Output releases, which act as leading indicators of economic strength and investor confidence. Strong industrial production or higher bond demand could provide moderate bullish support to the euro. On the USD side, the market awaits impactful data including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Labor Cost Index, and Crude Oil Inventories, alongside speeches from FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Michelle Bowman. These events historically increase volatility in EURUSD, as upbeat labor data typically strengthens the USD, while dovish or hawkish tones from Fed speakers may shift interest rate expectations. Overall, today’s macro releases introduce elevated uncertainty and potential directional momentum for the EURUSD pair.
Price Action:
On the EURUSD H4 chart, price action shows that after a major bullish move, the market transitioned into a structured bearish correction, forming a descending channel. The pair rejected the 1.19175 resistance, where bullish momentum faded and sellers regained control. Candles now show renewed bearish pressure, indicating that the retracement may extend downward. If momentum persists, the EURUSD price could revisit the 1.18049 historical support, which aligns with previous consolidation zones and represents a key decision area for traders. This behavior enhances the overall bearish sentiment in the current EURUSD H4 price action outlook.
Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a fading bullish correction and growing bearish pressure. The Tenkan-sen has crossed below the Kijun-sen, reinforcing the downside bias. With Senkou Span A and B remaining flat, momentum is weak, and bearish continuation is likely unless price breaks above the cloud.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD shows the line only slightly above the signal line, indicating fading bullish momentum. The small histogram bars suggest possible convergence and weakening buying pressure. A bearish crossover would strengthen expectations of further downside on the EURUSD H4 chart.
Williams %R (14): Williams %R sits in the upper-mid range, showing the pair is not overbought and still has room to move lower. The recent downward turn reflects renewed selling activity. A drop toward -80 would support a deeper bearish continuation.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest major support sits around 1.18049, a historically respected price level where buyers previously re-entered the market.
Resistance: The primary resistance remains at 1.19175, a strong barrier that led to the recent bearish reversal.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 technical analysis suggests that bearish continuation remains likely after the strong rejection from 1.19175 and the presence of a descending channel structure. Indicators such as Ichimoku, MACD, and Williams %R all lean toward weakening bullish momentum and renewed selling interest. With high-impact EUR and USD economic events scheduled today—including NFP, unemployment data, industrial output figures, and FOMC speeches—volatility may increase significantly. Traders should remain cautious, monitor support at 1.18049, and consider potential whipsaws caused by macroeconomic catalysts.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
