Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP currency pair today is influenced by a dense schedule of Eurozone PMI releases and key ECB speeches. Multiple Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash readings from S&P Global will provide fresh insights into economic expansion or contraction, with readings above 50 favoring EUR strength. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel are scheduled to speak, increasing volatility as traders look for clues regarding future monetary policy and possible interest-rate adjustments. On the GBP side, BOE MPC members Catherine Mann and Huw Pill will also speak, alongside UK consumer confidence and retail-sales data—making today highly sensitive for GBP valuation and overall EURGBP direction.
Price Action:
The EUR/GBP H4 chart shows a prevailing bullish trend, supported by a rising trendline extending from September. Price is currently hovering around 0.88100, where the first support is forming just above the trendline. The last two candles are distinctly bearish, suggesting short-term pullback pressure despite the broader bullish context. Candles remain clustered around the 8-period (blue) and 21-period (orange) moving averages, signaling consolidation and potential momentum transition.
Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (8 EMA & 21 EMA): The two EMAs are running tightly together, showing fading momentum. The 8 EMA is attempting to cross below the 21 EMA, hinting at short-term bearish pressure. Trend bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the rising trendline.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD values near 0.000026 / 0.000126 show weak momentum and a flattening bias. This reflects indecision and diminishing bullish force without confirming a bearish reversal yet.
RSI (28): The RSI at 51.02 is neutral, indicating balanced sentiment. It neither supports overbought conditions nor suggests oversold levels, consistent with consolidation.
Parabolic SAR: The last four SAR dots are above the candles, signaling short-term bearish pressure. This supports the idea of a temporary pullback toward support despite the broader bullish trendline.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Around the 0.88100 zone, aligned with the rising trendline, followed by the psychological level at 0.88000.
Resistance: Upper resistance stands near recent swing highs at 0.88450–0.88500, marking the top of recent bullish pushes.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURGBP H4 technical outlook remains broadly bullish due to the intact ascending trendline, though the short-term sentiment has weakened with two consecutive bearish candles and a potential moving-average crossover forming. MACD momentum is fading, and RSI is neutral, reinforcing the possibility of a pullback before a clearer direction emerges. Given today’s heavy slate of Eurozone and UK PMI releases and multiple speeches by ECB and BOE officials, volatility may increase sharply, causing rapid movements around key support levels. Traders should monitor reactions at 0.88100 and 0.88000, as these levels will determine whether the bullish trend resumes or a deeper correction forms.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
