Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair represents the strength comparison between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, both currencies are influenced by several key economic releases. On the USD side, traders are awaiting data from the S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI), FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. These indicators are crucial as they provide insight into the overall economic health, consumer sentiment, and housing market stability—factors that can influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy outlook. On the Eurozone side, the NIQ Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled for release, which will reflect consumer optimism across member states. Stronger-than-expected data from Europe could provide the EUR some support; however, the USD remains dominant amid persistent expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S. economy. As a result, market participants should anticipate moderate volatility in the EUR/USD H4 trading sessions today.
Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart shows that the pair has been trading in a bearish trend, but recently initiated a corrective upward move. After rebounding from the lower boundary of the descending channel and the green trendline, the price started forming higher lows. The price is currently positioned above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and is moving toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling a short-term bullish correction within the broader bearish structure.
The presence of multiple green candles near the ascending support line confirms buyer interest, while the Parabolic SAR dots below the candles indicate short-term bullish pressure. This aligns with improving momentum and a possible retest of the 1.1680–1.1700 zone, representing the next major resistance area.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the current candles, signaling the start of a potential bullish correction. This change indicates that buyers are gradually regaining control in the short term, and as long as the dots remain below the price, upward momentum may continue.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line currently reads 0.000419 and the signal line -0.000007, reflecting early bullish convergence. The histogram is showing positive momentum, suggesting that the bearish pressure is fading. A further widening between the MACD and signal lines would confirm continued short-term upside movement in EUR/USD H4 trading.
RSI (28): The RSI is positioned at 52.89, slightly above the neutral 50 level, which indicates that the pair is recovering from oversold conditions. This reading supports the idea of a short-term correction while maintaining potential room for additional upward movement before entering overbought territory.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support lies around 1.1570, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the upward trendline base. A break below this zone could resume the bearish momentum.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is located at 1.1680–1.1700, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the current recovery channel.
Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the EUR/USD H4 technical analysis suggests that the pair is currently undergoing a bullish correction within a broader bearish trend. The alignment of the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and RSI supports continued short-term upside momentum, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 1.1680. However, traders should remain cautious, as strong USD fundamentals and upcoming U.S. housing and consumer confidence data could trigger renewed bearish sentiment.
Short-term traders may consider buying on dips above the trendline support, while swing traders should watch for potential reversals near resistance.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
