Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR-USD pair today faces potential volatility influenced by crucial economic updates from both the Eurozone and the United States. Eurostat is set to release consumer confidence data, a vital indicator reflecting consumer sentiment and future spending potential, thus directly influencing the EUR’s strength. Simultaneously, high-level speeches from key figures like Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, along with multiple Federal Reserve officials including John Williams, Alberto Musalem, Stephen Miran, Thomas Barkin, and Beth Hammack, will deliver essential insights into upcoming monetary policy shifts, potentially leading to significant moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Price Action:
Analyzing EURUSD on the H4 timeframe, the price is moving within an ascending channel. Recently, after reaching and piercing the channel’s upper boundary, the price sharply retreated and currently finds support at the lower boundary. A breakout above the current bearish trendline would signal a potential bullish reversal targeting initial resistance at 1.17763, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Traders should closely observe this breakout for clear bullish confirmation.
Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): The RSI stands at 40.35. Notably, although the price itself has not breached the bearish resistance line yet, the RSI indicator already broke its resistance line, signaling potential bullish divergence. Traders should watch closely for further RSI upward movement as a confirmation of a bullish reversal.
MACD (12,24,9): The MACD is currently at -0.000848 with a signal line at 0.000192, indicating bearish momentum, though diminishing. Traders should anticipate a bullish crossover for further confirmation of potential upside momentum.
Stochastic (10,6,3): Stochastic indicators read at 16.36 and 13.9 respectively, currently showing a bullish crossover within the oversold zone. This strongly suggests that bullish price action may soon follow as momentum shifts upward.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support is located at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.17427. Further downside support levels lie around 1.16930 and then at 1.16300.
Resistance: The initial resistance stands at 1.17763, with further upside targets aligning with the channel’s upper boundary near 1.18300.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 chart currently suggests potential bullish price action, supported by indicators including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, which are collectively signaling a possible reversal from the recent bearish move. Traders should monitor economic releases and policy speeches closely as they have the potential to substantially influence market sentiment and price volatility. Caution is advised around news release times due to potential market fluctuations.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
