Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis
The EUR-USD exchange rate remains sensitive to macroeconomic releases for both the Euro and the US. Today’s calendar shows the Eurostat Trade Balance for the eurozone and the NAHB Housing Market Index for the US as the closest scheduled items — Eurostat’s trade balance printed stronger-than-expected would be bullish for EURUSD, while a surprise upside in the NAHB index would favor the USD and could weigh on EURUSD. Overall, absent large surprises, these releases usually generate muted moves on the H4 timeframe, but an outsized surprise can amplify intraday volatility. Traders using fundamental analysis EURUSD should monitor these prints alongside market positioning and rate-expectation commentary to judge the next directional impulse.
Price Action
The EURUSD H4 price action shows a renewed bullish structure after a deep correction: the pair has formed higher lows and is now approaching the prior double-top area around 1.18000. Recent candles demonstrate controlled bullish pressure rather than explosive breakouts, suggesting accumulation and a tactical long bias while respecting resistance. The key short-term battle is at the double-top: a clean rejection increases the chance of a retracement to 1.16116, whereas a decisive breakout above 1.1800 with follow-through would validate continuation toward the longer-term monthly resistance near 1.20400. This price action EURUSD H4 view supports selective long entries on pullbacks into proven support, with stops placed beyond the H4 invalidation levels.
Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The latest Parabolic SAR dot is below the price, indicating the current H4 trend is bullish. The PSAR confirms upside momentum and can be used as a trailing stop; a flip of the dots above price would be an early sign of trend exhaustion or a deeper pullback.
RSI (14): RSI sits at ~61.8, showing bullish bias with room before classical overbought (70). The upward slope supports continuation, but traders should watch for RSI stalling or bearish divergence as a warning of weakening momentum in the EURUSD H4 technical analysis.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Stochastic readings are ~86.37 / 87.60, clearly in overbought territory. This increases the likelihood of a near-term consolidation or pullback even in an uptrend. A bearish %K/%D crossover on the H4 stochastic would be a useful timing signal for short-term sellers or for traders to scale out of longs.
Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.16116, which aligns with the recent H4 consolidation area and short-term swing lows; secondary support sits near 1.13850, corresponding to the lower H4 swing and deeper correction zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.18000, which coincides with the prior double-top zone and the last two highs; the next major resistance / monthly target is around 1.20400, aligning with the longer-term monthly resistance line.
Conclusion and Consideration
EUR/USD on the H4 chart shows a bullish structural trend supported by Parabolic SAR and RSI, while Stochastic’s overbought reading cautions about short-term retracements. The immediate tactical plan: favor buy-on-dip entries toward the 1.16116 support with targets into 1.18000; if price breaks and holds above 1.18000, consider the path open toward the 1.20400 monthly resistance. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.16116 would signal a deeper correction and shift the bias lower toward the 1.13850 zone. Always combine this technical and fundamental chart daily analysis with the incoming Eurostat and NAHB headlines, watch for order flow confirmation, and size positions conservatively given potential news-driven spikes.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
