Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CHF currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). Today, USD/CHF experienced notable volatility influenced by key fundamental developments. The US dollar faced uncertainty as traders awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and reacted cautiously to the disappointing New Home Sales data, which fell short of expectations at 694K against a forecast of 743K. Additionally, fluctuations in Crude Oil Inventories contributed to mixed market sentiment toward the dollar. Conversely, the Swiss franc was impacted by the SNB Quarterly Bulletin and a bearish reading from the UBS Economic Expectations indicator at -22.0, suggesting pessimism regarding Switzerland’s economic outlook. These combined factors resulted in dynamic price movements within the USDCHF pair, highlighting the sensitivity of this currency pair to economic data and central bank communications.
Price Action:
As of June 24, 2025, technical indicators and price action illustrate a bearish scenario within a clearly defined descending channel on the 4-hour chart. The USD-CHF pair is currently trading near the lower boundary of the descending channel around the 0.8047 level, signaling a continued bearish trend. Stochastic oscillator readings indicate oversold conditions (12.32), suggesting a potential short-term corrective bounce. However, trading volume remains consistent, underscoring steady bearish participation. Overall, technical factors suggest continued bearish momentum, with possible short-term corrections as the market reacts to oversold indicators within this well-established downward channel.
Key Technical Indicators:
Stochastic: The Stochastic oscillator currently reads at approximately 12.32, indicating deeply oversold conditions on the H4 chart. This low level suggests bearish momentum has dominated recently, but it also hints at the possibility of a short-term bullish correction or consolidation. Traders should watch for a potential upward crossover from these oversold levels as an early sign of a rebound or stabilization in price action.
Volume: Trading volume has remained consistent throughout the recent bearish movements, underscoring persistent selling pressure. The steady volume indicates reliable participation from sellers, reinforcing the strength and validity of the ongoing bearish channel. Traders should closely monitor any notable shifts or spikes in volume, which could signal changes in market sentiment or upcoming reversals.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is at 0.8047, followed by further support at 0.8000 and 0.7950, representing critical zones for potential rebounds.
Resistance: Initial resistance appears at 0.8100, with stronger resistance at 0.8150 and the upper channel boundary near 0.8200, crucial for a bullish reversal.
Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, USD/CHF remains primarily bearish, driven by fundamental uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy and cautious sentiment regarding the Swiss economy. Technically, the pair is positioned near key support levels within a clearly defined descending channel, indicating potential continuation of bearish momentum. However, oversold conditions highlighted by the Stochastic oscillator suggest possible short-term corrective rebounds. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic releases, shifts in volume, and price reactions at critical support (0.8047, 0.8000) and resistance (0.8100, 0.8150) levels for signals of either bearish continuation or potential reversal.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
