Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the USD-JPY is influenced by several high-impact economic releases and events. The US Dollar (USD) may experience increased volatility due to remarks by US President Donald Trump at the Cuomo Town Hall event, alongside key economic indicators such as Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing data. Positive readings from these indicators, indicating stronger economic conditions, may support USD strength. On the Japanese Yen (JPY) side, market participants will monitor the Bank of Japan’s interest rate statement and Governor’s press conference closely. A more hawkish-than-expected stance could strengthen the Yen significantly.
Price Action:
Analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart, we observe a clear price breakout from a downtrend, followed by a successful pullback and retest of the breakout level. Currently, the price has begun forming an ascending trend supported by a bullish trendline, signaling the start of potential bullish momentum. The first key target for price movement upwards is set at the recent high.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned below the candles, confirming the bullish momentum in the short term. As long as these dots remain below price action, bullish sentiment will prevail.
EMA21: The 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently acts as a dynamic support, with the price trading just above it. This alignment indicates a short-term bullish bias and may guide traders towards buying opportunities as long as price sustains above the EMA21.
MACD: The MACD indicator has shown a bullish crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line and histogram bars moving upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Continued bullish MACD signals support further upward movement.
Stochastics: The Stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought levels, currently around 71.94, signaling strong buying pressure. While the price may see slight retracements, continued momentum in this region supports ongoing bullish sentiment.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate dynamic support lies at the bullish trendline near 142.30, followed by a stronger static support at the previous breakout area around 141.50.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is seen at the recent swing high around 143.85, followed by psychological resistance at 145.00.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-JPY H4 technical analysis suggests ongoing bullish sentiment, supported by key indicators like Parabolic SAR, EMA21, MACD, and Stochastics. Fundamental events today could create volatility and significant directional movements. Traders should closely monitor USD news releases and BOJ statements for potential shifts in market dynamics. It is prudent to manage risk effectively, considering potential increased volatility.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
