Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair today is influenced by a dense cluster of US labor-market data and Japanese economic releases, creating a potentially volatile environment for forex traders. On the USD side, markets await multiple delayed JOLTS releases, the NFIB Small Business Index, high-frequency ADP employment data (NER Pulse), and the Conference Board Leading Indicators, all of which may inject significant momentum into USD price action due to their strong links with labor demand, inflation expectations, and consumer spending. Higher-than-forecast job openings or employment numbers typically support the USD by strengthening expectations for a tighter monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the JPY faces notable domestic catalysts, including the BOJ’s monthly Monetary Base and Machine Tool Orders, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda—a key event that often causes volatility as traders look for signals on rate normalization or policy adjustments. Combined, these events make today highly relevant for USD-JPY fundamental analysis, with macroeconomic sentiment likely driving stronger short-term swings.
Price Action
The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming the ongoing medium-term bullish trend. The most recent correction pushed the price down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, where buyers regained control, forming a rebound and re-establishing bullish pressure. Price action now shows a clean upward movement as the candles climb back above the short-term moving average cluster, signaling renewed buyer interest. The break of the recent minor pullback structure reinforces that USD JPY price action maintains a bullish outlook as long as the channel support remains intact.
Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 21): Price is trending higher with healthy corrections, and the recent MA-9 bullish crossover above MA-21 after touching the lower channel confirms renewed upside momentum. Trading above both moving averages keeps the USDJPY H4 outlook firmly bullish.
RSI (14): RSI at 58.98 signals positive momentum without being overbought, suggesting further room for the uptrend to extend. This supports sustained bullish price action on the USDJPY H4 chart.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic above 80 reflects strong bullish pressure but also warns of possible short-term pullbacks. As long as %K stays above %D, momentum still favors buyers, with any dip likely to be corrective within the broader uptrend.
Support and Resistance
Support: Key support sits near 155.40 – 155.60, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the recent bullish crossover zone.
Resistance: Major resistance emerges near 157.20 – 157.50, close to the upper channel band and recent swing highs.
Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-JPY H4 forecast confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, supported by the price action rebound from channel support and the MA-9/MA-21 bullish crossover. RSI remains constructive, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests strong momentum but potential for short-term volatility. With today’s heavy USD labor-market calendar and multiple JPY releases—including BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech—traders should expect increased volatility and swift intraday shifts. The broader trend remains upward as long as price holds above the ascending channel support.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
