Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s EURJPY fundamental outlook is shaped by several critical economic data releases across both the Eurozone and Japan. The EUR side is under scrutiny as the market awaits multiple CPI reports from German states, French CPI, and retail sales figures, all of which are strong indicators of inflation and consumer spending—key drivers for ECB monetary policy decisions. Any surprises to the upside in inflation may support EUR strength. Additionally, a speech by Bundesbank President Nagel could provide hints regarding future ECB tightening, further adding to potential EUR volatility. On the JPY front, traders are watching closely for Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, and industrial production—all scheduled today. These high-impact releases will gauge Japan’s inflationary pressures and economic momentum, potentially influencing BOJ policy expectations. Overall, volatility is expected due to the economic calendar being packed with price-sensitive data on both ends of the EUR/JPY pair.
Price Action:
From a price action perspective on the EURJPY H4 chart, the pair is clearly trading in a strong bullish trend. Price has been advancing steadily within an upward-sloping parallel channel, respecting higher highs and higher lows. The candles remain positioned near the upper boundary of this channel, with no significant bearish rejections yet, signaling continued bullish momentum. Notably, the price is hovering around all-time highs (ATH), indicating strong buyer dominance and the potential for further breakout continuation if no reversal signals form. Minor consolidation may occur near resistance, but the trend structure remains firmly bullish unless support levels are breached decisively.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Step 0.05, Max 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots are consistently below the candles, confirming the bullish trend. Their spacing reflects continued upward momentum with no immediate sign of reversal.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line at 1.2264 is above the signal line at 1.2230, maintaining a bullish crossover. The positive histogram bars suggest ongoing buying strength, though momentum is steady rather than accelerating.
Stochastic Oscillator (55,3,3): Currently reading 79.20 and 64.39, the Stochastic is approaching overbought territory. This implies possible short-term consolidation, but overall trend momentum remains intact above the midline.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The first strong support lies near 179.00, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a recent consolidation zone.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is found near 183.50, representing the top of the ascending channel and current ATH pressure zone.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURJPY H4 chart continues to show a bullish technical and fundamental outlook. With price action maintaining a steep upward trajectory within a well-respected bullish channel, supported by confirming indicators like MACD and Parabolic SAR, the bias remains upward. The Stochastic Oscillator’s near-overbought reading signals caution, but it does not yet invalidate the trend. Traders should monitor upcoming high-impact news releases from both the Eurozone and Japan, particularly CPI and employment data, which could introduce volatility and shift sentiment. Breakouts above resistance may offer continuation setups, while a breakdown of channel support could trigger a correction., while a breakdown of channel support could trigger a correction.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
