Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to trade cautiously against the US Dollar amid a wave of delayed US economic data releases due to the ongoing government shutdown. The delayed release of key indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, and Retail Sales figures has added uncertainty to the USD outlook. The absence of timely inflation and consumer spending data limits the market’s ability to gauge future Federal Reserve actions, leaving Bitcoin’s volatility tied more to sentiment and liquidity flows. Meanwhile, global crypto market confidence is improving modestly after recent corrections, with investors cautiously rotating back into digital assets amid expectations of easing inflationary pressures later this quarter.
Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, BTCUSD shows a corrective recovery after rebounding from the $80,000 support zone toward $89,000. The price currently trades between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting a consolidation phase after a sustained downtrend. The $90,000 mark acts as a strong resistance aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, while the $84,500–$85,000 area provides immediate support. Despite the upward correction, the overall structure remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows still intact on the chart.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.05, 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the candles, indicating a short-term bullish correction within the broader bearish trend. This suggests temporary upside momentum; however, until the dots confirm a sustained trend continuation, traders should remain cautious of a potential reversal near resistance levels.
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 21): The short-term 9-period moving average (blue) remains below the 21-period moving average (orange), signaling that bearish pressure still dominates. However, the 9-MA is curving upward toward the 21-MA, hinting at possible bullish crossover momentum if buying persists. This alignment suggests that a sustained break above $90,000 could shift short-term sentiment.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD value stands at -1362.295 with the signal line at -2206.802, showing that while momentum remains negative, it is gradually recovering. The narrowing gap between the MACD and signal lines indicates decreasing bearish momentum and potential for a bullish crossover in upcoming sessions, especially if Bitcoin holds above $85,000.
RSI (28): The RSI is at 42.80, hovering below the neutral 50 mark, reflecting that BTCUSD is still in bearish territory but recovering from oversold conditions. The RSI’s gradual rise suggests renewed buying interest but lacks strong bullish conviction at this stage.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is around $83,000, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and previous reaction lows, providing a potential base for buyers.
Resistance: The key resistance is near $89,000, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and recent price rejection area, marking a critical zone for potential trend reversal or continuation.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTCUSD H4 technical and fundamental analysis indicates that Bitcoin is in a corrective recovery phase after a sharp decline from above $110,000 to the $80,000 zone. Technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and RSI show signs of short-term recovery, while moving averages confirm lingering bearish bias. If Bitcoin manages to break and sustain above $90,000, further upside toward $92,000–$93,000 could be possible. However, failure to hold above $83,000 may renew bearish momentum toward $80,000. Traders should remain attentive to upcoming US PPI and Retail Sales releases, which could influence USD strength and overall risk sentiment impacting BTCUSD.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
