Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair remains sensitive to today’s key economic releases and speeches. The U.S. Dollar faces significant volatility amid delayed releases of critical employment and inflation data due to a previous government shutdown, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Jobless Rate, and labor price changes. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Lisa Cook and Austan Goolsbee, may provide insights into future U.S. monetary policy, potentially driving short-term USD volatility. Conversely, EUR faces potential volatility driven by upcoming data on producer prices and consumer confidence from Eurozone economies, alongside bond auction results and Bundesbank’s monthly report.
Price Action:
EURUSD H4 price action reveals a shift from a long-term bullish trend to a current bearish correction phase within a well-defined descending channel. After a recent breakout failure above the channel’s upper boundary, price action has returned inside the channel, signaling bearish dominance. Should this bearish momentum continue, the immediate targets include the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level or the channel’s lower boundary.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The dots positioned above the recent candles signal a bearish bias, supporting the continuation of downward price movement.
MACD: MACD reading of -0.001310, with the signal line at -0.000565, shows that bearish momentum is currently prevailing. The histogram confirms increasing bearish momentum, suggesting sellers retain control.
RSI: Currently at 42.38, the RSI suggests that EURUSD maintains a bearish stance. The indicator remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating continued selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified near the 1.14960 level, aligning with the lower boundary of the bearish channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: Key resistance is found at approximately 1.16040, represented by the upper boundary of the descending channel and recent price rejection areas.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 technical chart daily analysis clearly indicates bearish market momentum supported by key technical indicators, including the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and RSI. Traders should closely monitor fundamental developments, particularly U.S. employment data and central bank speeches, which could significantly influence the currency pair’s short-term price action. Caution is advised, given the potential volatility stemming from economic releases and macroeconomic factors.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
