Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD currency pair will likely experience increased volatility today due to key economic releases and significant central bank speeches. For EUR, traders will closely observe the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and Industrial Output data, each potentially influencing market expectations of future inflation and economic health. Additionally, outcomes from the Eurogroup meetings and the Bundesbank’s Bund Auction could further impact the EUR. On the USD side, Federal Reserve speakers Michael Barr, John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and Stephen Miran are expected to deliver insights into the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy, potentially causing substantial shifts in market sentiment.
Price Action:
EURUSD price action on the H4 timeframe indicates a shift from a prolonged bullish trend into a consistent bearish channel. Recent price behavior highlights a breakout above this bearish channel; however, current candles suggest a potential bearish re-entry. The Fibonacci expansion indicates a possible next lower low at the 61.8 level. Price action signals traders should anticipate possible retesting around the channel’s mid-line as a key short-term target.
Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.72, indicating moderate market strength. The current RSI value suggests that although buyers recently gained control, momentum is not significantly strong, leaving room for bearish pressure to resume.
Stochastic (6,3,3): Currently at 67.23 and 77.19, the Stochastic indicator suggests the market is nearing overbought territory but is not yet extreme. Traders should watch for a potential bearish crossover, which could confirm downward momentum and initiate selling pressure.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for EURUSD stands around the recent low at 1.1520, aligned closely with previous price consolidation areas.
Resistance: The first major resistance level is at 1.1625, corresponding to the recent high and channel breakout point.
Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD analysis on the H4 chart reflects current bearish bias with notable caution due to recent breakout signals and fundamental data releases. Technical indicators like RSI and Stochastic support the scenario of cautious bearish momentum returning to the market. Traders should closely monitor today’s significant economic releases and Federal Reserve speeches, which can trigger notable volatility and shifts in EURUSD price dynamics.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
