Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair remains under moderate pressure as traders focus on upcoming economic remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who is expected to discuss Australia’s economic outlook at the UBS Australasia Conference. Markets will closely monitor his tone for any hawkish signals hinting at future rate hikes, which could strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gains support from upbeat domestic sentiment, reinforced by the Cleveland Fed’s inflation expectations survey and recent optimistic statements from the US President regarding strong economic performance, record investments, and a potential $2000 citizen dividend. Together, these developments suggest heightened volatility in the AUD/USD pair today, with fundamental forces pulling in opposite directions — RBA commentary possibly boosting the AUD, while strong USD rhetoric could cap gains.
Price Action:
In the AUDUSD H4 chart, the price has moved in a descending trend, forming lower highs since early September. However, after touching the ascending green support line, the pair has shown some bullish recovery with a series of small green candles. The market currently trades around 0.6493, approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting potential short-term resistance ahead. The structure indicates that while buyers are attempting to reclaim control, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with sellers still dominant unless a breakout above the nearby resistance occurs.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.05, 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned above the candles, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact. However, the latest candles showing slight bullish momentum hint that a reversal could form if the SAR dots flip below the price. Until that confirmation occurs, traders should treat the current upward movement as a corrective phase within the broader downtrend.
Moving Averages (MA9 and MA21): The short-term blue MA (9) remains below the long-term orange MA (21), maintaining a bearish crossover. Nonetheless, the short MA line is curving upward, suggesting that short-term momentum is improving. A confirmed crossover above the long MA could signal a potential trend reversal, but as of now, the trend bias remains bearish to neutral.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows slightly diminishing bearish momentum, and the MACD line is curving closer to the signal line, indicating possible early signs of a bullish crossover. However, until that crossover is confirmed, the underlying momentum still favors the bears, with limited upside potential in the short term.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The first strong support is positioned around 0.6440, aligned with the green ascending trendline, and deeper support can be found near 0.6415, the recent swing low.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the 0.6500 psychological level, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6514, and stronger resistance around 0.6570–0.6600, where the 50% retracement and red descending trendline intersect.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD H4 technical analysis suggests a short-term recovery phase within a broader bearish trend. Despite minor bullish attempts supported by price action and the MACD’s flattening momentum, the prevailing market structure and the Parabolic SAR remain bearish. Traders should closely monitor 0.6500–0.6514 for rejection or breakout signals, as this region holds key importance for short-term direction. Fundamentally, both RBA and US developments today may induce heightened volatility and directional spikes. Caution is advised around the news events, with short-term traders potentially favoring range-bound strategies until a decisive breakout occurs.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
