Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair is influenced today by key macroeconomic drivers from both the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar. For the USD, traders will be closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, with expectations of hawkish comments that may strengthen the dollar. Additionally, the JOLTS job openings, factory orders, and auto sales data are due for release, providing fresh insights into US labor market strength and manufacturing activity. For the AUD, Australia’s quarterly GDP release and a scheduled speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock could bring significant volatility, especially if the outlook on growth or interest rate guidance diverges from expectations. Overall, today’s AUD/USD forecast depends heavily on central bank commentary and labor market data, which could drive short-term volatility in the H4 chart.
Price Action:
On the AUD-USD H4 chart, the price recently rejected the 0.6530 resistance area near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A sharp bearish candle took the pair lower, breaking the middle Bollinger Band and testing the 50% retracement support near 0.6480, before bouncing back to trade above the 61.8% retracement at 0.6518. This indicates strong intraday volatility with buyers defending lower supports but sellers still active around the 0.6530–0.6550 zone. The overall price action suggests short-term consolidation with a bearish tilt unless the pair can close firmly above the 0.6550 resistance area.
Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the upper Bollinger Band toward the lower band, breaking the middle line, and recently rebounded after touching the lower band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A corrective bullish candle has lifted the price back above the 61.8% retracement level. The Bollinger Bands have expanded, with the upper band moving horizontally and the lower band sloping downward, signaling increased volatility and potential bearish continuation if support fails.
Parabolic SAR: The last six dots of the Parabolic SAR are positioned above the recent candles, confirming the ongoing bearish sentiment. The recent downward alignment supports the bearish outlook unless the price can break above 0.6550 to flip the signal to bullish.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 48.46, hovering just below the neutral 50 level, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This suggests consolidation with a slight bearish bias, as momentum remains weak.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is currently at 0.000274, while the signal line is at 0.001029, showing a narrowing spread. The histogram reflects decreasing bullish momentum, raising the possibility of a bearish crossover if selling pressure increases.
Williams %R (%R): The %R is at -53.00, sitting in the mid-range zone, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum. This neutral reading implies potential sideways trading before a breakout.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is located near 0.6480, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is seen at 0.6530–0.6550, close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and recent swing highs.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 timeframe is showing mixed signals, with bearish momentum indicated by the Parabolic SAR and MACD, while a rebound from key Fibonacci support suggests buyers are still active. Traders should closely watch the 0.6480 support level, as a break below could extend losses toward 0.6440, while a sustained move above 0.6550 would shift momentum back to the bulls. Given today’s fundamental drivers, including speeches from Federal Reserve and RBA officials as well as major US data releases, heightened volatility in AUD/USD is expected. Traders should exercise caution and manage risk carefully, as both currencies may react sharply to monetary policy signals.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
