Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The NZDUSD pair remains sensitive to both New Zealand domestic data and US macro/newsflow. On the NZD side, upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) releases and the twice-monthly GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction are relevant — stronger-than-expected PPI or higher dairy auction prices would support the NZD via inflation and export-income channels. For the USD, headline events this week include monthly Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts (Census Bureau), Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaking (possible hawkish cues), and weekly API/EIA energy reports; stronger housing or hawkish Fed commentary typically strengthens the USD and can push NZD-USD lower. Overall, the macro backdrop currently favours risk-off/skittish flows into the USD if US prints surprise to the upside, while NZD remains vulnerable to commodity and PPI surprises.
Price Action:
The H4 price action shows the pair entrenched in a long-term downtrend with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Recently the market has been consolidating between the nearest support area around 0.58934 and short-term resistance near 0.59547, forming a shallow range after a bearish impulse. Candles are trading below the moving average line, which is acting as dynamic resistance; failed attempts to close above 0.59547 point to sellers defending the earlier resistance line. Given the structure, any upward retracement would first test 0.59547 and then the long-term descending resistance near 0.61180, while renewed selling pressure risks a drop back to 0.58934 and ultimately the historical support zone around 0.56602.
Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (9): Price is trading below the H4 moving average, which is sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance, rallies have been capped at the MA. Until price closes convincingly above the MA, expect sellers to remain in control and treat rallies as shorting opportunities.
RSI (14): Momentum is mildly bearish but not extreme, sitting around 43.78, which is below the 50 midpoint yet far from oversold. This leaves room for further downside while still allowing for a retracement if RSI moves back above 50.
MACD (12,26,9): Momentum is weak with the MACD and signal lines nearly overlapping (MACD ≈ -0.000558, Signal ≈ -0.000541), yielding a small negative histogram. Wait for a clear crossover or histogram expansion aligned with price structure before taking directional trades.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Near-term support sits at 0.58934, the recent swing low and short-term demand zone where buyers previously defended prices, with a deeper structural floor at 0.56602 that would act as the next major support if selling intensifies.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 0.59547, a congestion zone and the first upside hurdle for any retracement, while the long-term descending trendline around 0.61180 represents the larger supply area that must be cleared to shift the bearish bias.
Conclusion and Consideration:
NZD/USD on the H4 timeframe remains in a structural downtrend; technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD) all lean mildly bearish to neutral and the pair is consolidating under the moving average. Shorter intraday traders can look for reliable setups near the 0.58934 support for counter-trend scalps with tight stops, but trend-following traders should favour short opportunities on rallies toward 0.59547 or the dynamic MA, targeting a move back toward 0.58934 and, if momentum accelerates, 0.56602. Fundamental catalysts (US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Fed Gov. Bowman remarks, NZ PPI and GDT dairy results) could spark volatility — plan entries around confirmed price action signals and prioritize risk management.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
