Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to show strong bullish sentiment, supported by the broader crypto market recovery and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Today, traders will closely watch the USD inflation expectations release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. This quarterly survey gauges business managers’ views on price changes over the next 12 months. If the actual figure surpasses forecasts, the US Dollar may strengthen, potentially adding short-term selling pressure on ETHUSD. However, Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals remain robust with sustained demand for decentralized applications (dApps) and Layer-2 scaling solutions, suggesting any dips could attract new buyers.
Price Action:
After a prolonged consolidation phase, ETH-USD has surged aggressively, attacking its recent high near $4,140. The strong bullish impulse broke through previous resistance zones, with the price briefly touching $4,204 before pulling back slightly. This resistance level is significant, and although the first breakout attempt might face profit-taking, the momentum suggests that ETHUSD could eventually break above it and head toward its all-time high (ATH). The recent move is characterized by high volume and acceleration, indicating strong market participation from buyers.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last few Parabolic SAR dots are positioned well below the price, with the gap widening. This reflects strong bullish acceleration and sustained momentum, confirming the current uptrend in ETHUSD.
RSI (14): Currently at 81.44, well above the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates strong buying pressure but also warns of a potential short-term correction before continuation.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line at 105.099 is significantly above the signal line at 60.984, with widening histogram bars. This divergence between the two lines shows increasing bullish momentum and confirms the strength of the ongoing uptrend.
Stochastic (5,3,3): With readings of 91 and 76, the Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, signaling that while the bullish trend is strong, the market could be due for a short-term consolidation or minor pullback before another upward push.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 3,473.21, which aligns with the lower consolidation boundary and a previous price reaction zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 4,140.47, which coincides with the recent breakout point, followed by 4,204.37, marking the latest intraday high.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETH-USD H4 chart shows a decisive breakout attempt from its recent consolidation, supported by strong bullish momentum across all major technical indicators. While the RSI and Stochastic suggest overbought conditions, the widening Parabolic SAR and bullish MACD divergence confirm the strength of the move. Traders should watch for a possible retest of $4,140 as support before another rally attempt toward $4,300–$4,400 and eventually the ATH. Given the upcoming USD inflation expectations release, short-term volatility is likely. A stronger USD may create temporary selling pressure, but Ethereum’s current trend and market structure remain bullish.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
