Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s EUR-USD fundamental outlook shows significant market-moving events primarily from the USD side. Key releases include initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor, labor productivity and unit labor costs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and wholesale inventories from the Census Bureau. The market typically reacts positively to lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and labor productivity figures, as these signal economic strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic’s fireside chat will draw close attention as investors look for insights into future monetary policy directions. For EUR, attention will focus primarily on upcoming trade balance and industrial output data from Destatis and economic bulletins from the ECB.
Price Action:
The EUR USD H4 price action demonstrates a strong bullish trend following a sharp reversal from previous bearish momentum. After an earlier consolidation phase, the EUR/USD began another notable bullish impulse, breaking decisively above previous resistance levels. The latest candles, however, indicate a possible correction as traders secure profits, but based on Fibonacci retracement analysis, prices are likely to remain above the 23.6% retracement level before resuming bullish momentum. The key target for this bullish run is identified at 1.17682, a previously significant reactionary level.
Key Technical Indicators:
Williams %R: The indicator is hovering around the -9.10 level, suggesting the EUR Vs. USD H4 is currently in an overbought territory. Although this signals potential short-term pullbacks, the strong bullish momentum remains evident, and a slight correction is probable before further bullish moves.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator on the EUR-USD H4 chart is currently hovering near 67.02, just below the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates that while bullish momentum remains robust, there’s potential for minor consolidation or corrective moves to relieve bullish pressure before continuing upwards.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands on EUR USD H4 have recently expanded, illustrating a strong bullish momentum and heightened volatility. Current price candles have reached the upper band, implying potential short-term retracement or sideways movement as the market consolidates gains before advancing further.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support aligns at the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at around 1.15992, serving as a robust floor for potential retracement.
Resistance: The primary resistance target stands firmly at 1.17682, reflecting historical price reaction significance.
Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD’s H4 timeframe analysis indicates bullish dominance, supported by technical indicators like Williams %R, RSI, and Bollinger Bands. Short-term corrections are expected but likely limited above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. Traders should closely monitor today’s USD economic releases and speeches from Fed representatives, as these could introduce volatility. EUR-specific data could provide additional directional cues.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
