Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EURGBP pair is likely to see moderate volatility as both the Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP) are influenced by several macroeconomic indicators. For the EUR, a flurry of economic releases including the Final and Flash PMIs, CPI (Consumer Price Index), and retail sales are scheduled. These are critical metrics for assessing economic health, particularly inflation and business activity across the Eurozone. Strong PMI or CPI figures could support a bullish case for the Euro if they exceed forecasts. On the GBP side, the focus is on the House Price Index and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Any positive surprise from the UK housing or manufacturing data could boost the Pound, potentially applying downward pressure on EUR/GBP. Overall, the market could be reactive today, with traders adjusting their positions based on real-time data surprises from either side.
Price Action:
The EURGBP pair on the H4 chart has been moving in a clear bullish trend since early June, following a long-term ascending trendline. Recently, the price entered a short-term corrective phase, pulling back from the resistance area around 0.87600. However, after testing the strong support zone near 0.86100, the price action shows bullish rejection with consecutive green candles forming. Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the candles, indicating a potential resumption of upward momentum. The EUR GBP price is currently attempting to retake lost ground and approach the resistance at 0.86800, a key barrier to further upside.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR has shifted from above to below the price for the past 5 spots, signaling a reversal of momentum back to the bullish side. This is often considered an early signal for a trend continuation, especially when paired with bullish candlestick patterns forming at major support levels.
Moving Averages (MA9 Blue / MA17 Orange): Currently, the fast MA (9) is still below the slow MA (17), with both moving slightly downward. However, price action has pierced through the MA9, which is now starting to slope upward. If this short MA crosses above the long MA, it could trigger a bullish crossover, confirming further upside potential toward the 0.87600 resistance.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows a bearish trend softening as it begins to rise back toward the zero line. The MACD line is at -0.001169 and the signal line at -0.001495, suggesting decreasing selling pressure. If momentum continues, a bullish crossover could occur in the next few sessions.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is at 46.51, recovering from near-oversold levels. This neutral-to-bullish positioning indicates the market has room to rise without being overbought, especially if supported by positive news or a breakout above key resistance.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest key support level is seen around 0.86100, where the price recently bounced, aligning with historical price rejection zones and the lower bound of the bullish trend.
Resistance: The next major resistance lies at 0.86800, a zone that may cap upward movement in the short term. A confirmed breakout above this level could open the path to 0.87600, the previous high.
Conclusion and Consideration:
In this EURGBP H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis, the pair remains within a broader upward trend, though it recently experienced a healthy pullback. The combination of technical signals—such as SAR shift, bullish price action at support, and a possible MACD reversal—suggests a potential continuation to the upside, especially if upcoming Eurozone data beats expectations. Caution remains warranted, however, as mixed fundamental results from either the Eurozone or the UK could shift short-term sentiment. Traders should monitor today’s key macroeconomic releases closely to confirm price direction.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
