Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s GBPUSD H4 forecast is influenced by a series of high-impact economic events for both the British Pound and the US Dollar. For the GBP, traders are awaiting the FPC Meeting Minutes and the FPC Statement, which could shed light on the UK’s financial stability outlook and potential policy adjustments by the Bank of England. Any signs of concern or hawkish sentiment could drive significant movement in GBPUSD. On the USD side, a packed economic calendar includes the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, and multiple FOMC-related events, most notably the FOMC Meeting Minutes later today. These will provide key insights into future interest rate trajectories and the Fed’s inflation outlook. The mixed expectations for inventory data and bond auction results may stir volatility, setting the stage for potential breakout movements in GBPUSD.
Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, but the recent candlesticks show early signs of a bullish reversal. After testing the lower boundary of the channel, price action has started to form higher lows, indicating an attempt by buyers to regain control. A break above the upper boundary of this descending channel would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially opening the path toward the next key resistance levels. Today’s price action shows growing bullish momentum as price begins to lift away from the recent lows.
Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): Currently at 43.78, the RSI is climbing upward from oversold territory and signaling early bullish momentum. This suggests increasing buyer interest without entering overbought levels, supporting a potential continuation of the upward move.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is contracting, and the MACD line is on the verge of crossing above the signal line, indicating a potential bullish crossover. This momentum shift suggests that the bears may be losing control, and a price increase may be imminent.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic has already turned bullish and currently shows values around 75.08 and 69.87, confirming a strong bullish bias. However, it is approaching overbought levels, so a short-term pullback could occur before a potential breakout.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price line, which is a classic bullish indicator. This reinforces the current upward move and signals the end of the recent bearish wave.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Support levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are seen at 1.2675, aligning with the recent swing low and the lower boundary of the descending channel, and at 1.2570, a key psychological level and former demand zone offering additional downside protection.
Resistance: Resistance levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are located at 1.2865, marking the upper boundary of the descending channel where a breakout could signal strong bullish continuation, and at 1.3000, a key psychological level and previous high.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
