Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released, showing quarterly growth of 0.3%, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. On an annual basis, CPI stands at 2.5%, aligning with expectations and indicating a steady inflationary environment. The Trimmed Mean CPI, which excludes volatile items, reported 0.6%, slightly below the forecast of 0.8%, suggesting subdued core inflation.
For the USD, critical data releases include Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders later in the day, with expectations of 0.4% and 0.3% growth respectively. Additionally, the CB Consumer Confidence Index, projected at 105.7, will provide insights into consumer sentiment, potentially impacting the USD’s performance. This combination of economic data points may lead to increased volatility for the AUDUSD pair.
Price Action:
The AUDUSD H4 chart indicates that the pair is currently in a correction phase following a strong bearish wave. The correction trend line has been broken, signaling the potential continuation of the broader bearish trend. Price action shows a rejection from resistance near 0.63000, with the pair now consolidating below this level. Recent candles indicate weakening bullish momentum, and sellers appear to be regaining control.
Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is displaying a weak bearish divergence, currently at 48, indicating that bearish momentum is building but is not yet overextended. This supports the view of a potential continuation of the bearish wave.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram confirms bearish momentum, with a crossover below the signal line and increasing negative histogram bars. This aligns with the trendline break and suggests further downside potential.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 0.62665, 0.62380, and 0.62300. These levels will be critical for assessing the strength of bearish pressure.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 0.63000, 0.63235, and 0.63520. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart is in a correction phase, but the bearish trend appears likely to resume, supported by the broken corrective trendline and confirmation from the RSI and MACD. Traders should monitor key support levels for potential bearish continuation and watch for a rejection at resistance levels to validate the downtrend. Upcoming US economic data, particularly Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence, could introduce additional volatility. Caution is advised given the mixed inflation data from Australia and the potential for USD strength later in the session.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
