Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CHF exchange rate is influenced today by key speeches from central bank officials. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the Hungarian National Bank. Her remarks will be closely monitored for any clues regarding future monetary policy, as they could impact the euro’s strength. Meanwhile, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel will participate in a televised interview, potentially offering insights into the Swiss National Bank’s policy outlook. Both events are expected to add volatility to the EUR-CHF forex pair, with traders bracing for significant movements in the euro to Swiss franc rate.
Price Action:
The EURCHF exchange rate exhibits strong bullish momentum on the H4 chart, with a breakout above the significant 0.94314 level, now acting as support. The pair recently approached the 100% Fibonacci Expansion level at 0.95000, where it faced selling pressure, resulting in a bearish reaction. This suggests a potential short-term correction, as the market consolidates gains before continuing higher. The pullback is a natural reaction following the breakout of a critical level, and a re-test of the 0.94314 zone could provide a stronger base for the euro-Swiss franc rate to resume its uptrend.
Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the EUR/CHF chart have widened, signaling increased volatility. The euro-franc currency pair is currently testing the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. A move toward the middle band could signal a healthy correction before the next upward push.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 65.27, nearing the overbought territory. This confirms strong bullish momentum in the euro-Swiss franc trading but also suggests the potential for a short-term pullback before further upward movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line, with the histogram reflecting bullish momentum. However, the histogram shows slight divergence, indicating weakening buying pressure and aligning with the expectation of a short-term correction in the EUR-CHF exchange rate.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support is found at the 0.94314 level, a previously broken resistance now acting as a floor for the euro-Swiss franc market. Further support is located near 0.94000, in line with the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance is positioned at 0.95000, aligning with the 100% Fibonacci Expansion level, which triggered the recent bearish reaction. A sustained breakout above this level could see the EUR CHF trading rate aiming for the 0.95500 zone.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURCHF forex market remains bullish, with a breakout and re-test of the 0.94314 support indicating strong upward potential. Short-term corrections are expected as the pair consolidates below the 100% Fibonacci Expansion level at 0.95000. Traders should closely monitor ECB President Lagarde and SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speeches for insights into euro-Swiss franc policy directions. These events are likely to influence the EUR-CHF market’s next move.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
