Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair faces downward pressure from recent Eurozone data releases, showing a mixed economic picture. Germany’s retail sales disappointed with a -0.7% decline, against expectations of a 1.6% increase, suggesting weaker consumer spending and an economic slowdown. Similarly, German import prices showed a decrease of -0.4%, in line with forecasts but reflecting declining demand. France’s CPI was modestly positive at 0.2%, but Italy’s CPI came in slightly negative at -0.1%. The Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate showed an annual increase of 1.9%, slightly above expectations but still below the ECB’s target, suggesting inflation remains controlled and reducing pressure on the ECB for aggressive rate hikes.
The ECB’s recent economic bulletin reinforces a cautious outlook, as growth concerns overshadow inflationary risks. Additionally, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.4%, signaling a stable but uninspiring labor market. With core inflation also below target at 2.6% annually, these factors may drive the ECB to maintain its dovish stance, potentially weakening the Euro further.
Meanwhile, the U.S. data points highlight a resilient economic landscape. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, above expectations of 0.1%, suggesting inflationary pressures remain. Personal income and spending also surpassed forecasts, signaling strong consumer demand, while unemployment claims came in slightly above forecast but still reflect a stable job market. The Chicago PMI also exceeded expectations at 46.9, indicating some improvement in U.S. manufacturing sentiment. Overall, these data points suggest continued economic strength, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve’s stance and bolstering the U.S. Dollar.
Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD continues to trade within a descending trend channel. The pair recently tested resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and encountered selling pressure. With resistances at 1.08700 and 1.09000, the pair may face difficulty breaking higher unless there’s a strong bullish catalyst. Conversely, support levels are located at 1.08111 and 1.07860, where buyers may step in if the price moves lower.
Key Technical Indicators:
MACD: The MACD shows a slight bullish signal, with the MACD line slightly above the signal line, suggesting mild bullish momentum. However, the histogram remains close to zero, indicating limited strength in the current uptrend and a likelihood of continued bearish pressure unless upward momentum increases significantly.
RSI: The RSI stands around 58.28, showing a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. This positioning suggests some potential for upside movement, but it remains vulnerable to reversal within the broader downtrend channel.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 1.08111, with a further key level at 1.07860, where the price may encounter stronger buying interest.
Resistance: Resistance levels are set at 1.08700 and 1.09000. A break above these levels would indicate a potential shift in sentiment, while a failure to break through would likely maintain the bearish trend.
Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD is in a sustained bearish trend on the H4 timeframe, with economic fundamentals favoring the U.S. Dollar amid resilient U.S. economic data and cautious Eurozone prospects. The MACD and RSI suggest a slight bullish divergence, hinting at possible short-term upside, though resistance levels may cap gains. Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data and any ECB statements, as strong U.S. data or dovish ECB comments could push the pair lower. Conversely, any signs of improving Eurozone data or dovish Fed commentary could provide temporary relief for the Euro. Key support and resistance levels should be watched closely for breakout or reversal signals.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EURUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
FXGlory
10.31.2024
