Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR/USD forex pair is influenced by key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from INSEE and the industrial production data from Eurostat are likely to set the tone for the Euro, reflecting the inflation rate and manufacturing output within the region. On the US side, the Import Price Index and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan are critical, as they provide early insights into inflation and consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected CPI or industrial output reading in the Eurozone could boost the Euro, while strong import price data or positive consumer sentiment in the US would likely strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the EURUSD pair.
Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish trend after rebounding from the 1.1010 level. The price moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, crossing the middle band, and now has reached the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The recent five candles show steady upward movement, as the pair broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the 50.0% level. If the pair manages to breach this key resistance level, it could move towards the 61.8% or even the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, though a failure to break through 50.0% may signal a potential retracement to the previous support levels.
Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is now touching the upper band, which reflects strong bullish momentum. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility in the market.
Parabolic SAR: The last five Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the candles, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. As long as the dots stay below the price action, bullish momentum is expected to persist.
MACD: The MACD line is approaching the signal line from below, suggesting a potential bullish crossover. This would confirm the upward momentum if the crossover occurs, signaling continued buying pressure.
Williams %R: Currently, the %R is around -0.39, indicating the price is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. There is still room for upward movement before hitting extreme levels.
Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.1055 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1030, and 1.1010 (recent low).
Resistance Levels: 1.1087 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.1115 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.1150 (100.0% Fibonacci).
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR USD pair is currently in an uptrend on the H4 chart, with strong bullish signals from both technical indicators and price action. If the pair can break above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, it is likely to continue higher towards the 61.8% level. However, if resistance at the 50.0% level holds, a pullback toward the 38.2% level is possible, where previous support levels may provide a buying opportunity. Traders should keep an eye on today’s fundamental data releases, as they could lead to increased volatility and confirm the direction of the pair.
Disclaimer: The provided EUR-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.
