Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The recent news includes key economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the UK that could significantly affect the EUR/GBP exchange rate. On June 29th, the Eurozone will release the German Prelim CPI m/m, a crucial indicator of inflation trends in Europe’s largest economy. For the UK, significant data releases include the Prelim GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims expected to come in at 218K compared to the previous 215K. These economic indicators are essential to watch, as they provide insights into the economic health of both regions, influencing currency strength.
Price Action:
The EUR/GBP H4 chart currently shows that the price line is forming a bearish wedge pattern, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. The price action indicates sustained downward pressure, and the bearish momentum is likely to persist. Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish wedge pattern with a break below the lower trendline, indicating the continuation of the bearish run.
Key Technical Indicators:
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a lack of bullish momentum, with the histogram showing bearish momentum and the MACD line trending downwards. This indicates a strong bearish trend in the EUR/GBP currency pair.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 31, which is in the bearish territory, indicating that the bearish momentum is strong and the price could continue to move lower.
Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The lower points of the recent candles around 0.84500 serve as the immediate support level.
Resistance Levels: The upper line of the bearish wedge around 0.84670 acts as a resistance level.
Conclusion and Consideration:
Traders should closely monitor both the upcoming economic news and the EUR/GBP reaction at the 0.84500 support level. A failure to break below could lead to a temporary pause in the bearish run, while a strong break below this level could confirm the bearish price prediction, leading to potential short opportunities. Given these dynamics, it’s essential to stay updated with the latest economic reports and adjust strategies accordingly to navigate the volatile forex market effectively.
Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
