The D1 structure remains bearish, while mixed momentum and a bearish H4 configuration leave room for consolidation and tactical countertrend pressure around the weekly levels.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/USD has a bearish weekly bias as D1 and H4 structure point lower, although mixed D1 momentum and close sequencing leave room for consolidation before either weekly boundary is tested.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend and the reference close at 1.11924, which is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. Price is also below the primary resistance at 1.12335 and above the primary support at 1.11603, placing the market between the first weekly levels while preserving downside structure.
The bearish case is not one-directional: D1 RSI is below 50, but D1 MACD is above its signal and the D1 histogram is positive, while the close sequence is mixed. H4 remains bearish, with H4 momentum and moving-average relationships adding tactical downside pressure, but that shorter timeframe does not replace the D1 thesis.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.12684
- T21.13431
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.11239
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.12610.
Selected key events
- Federal Funds Rate28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3High
- FOMC Statement28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3High
- FOMC Press Conference28 Oct 2026 21:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.12001 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.11924 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.11603 |
| Secondary support | 1.11239 |
| Primary resistance | 1.12335 |
| Bullish targets | 1.12684, 1.13431 |
| Bearish targets | 1.11239 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.12610 — One completed D1 close above 1.12610 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/USD during 24–31 October 2026 include CB Consumer Confidence, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Consumer Confidence | 27 Oct 2026 17:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 80.5 | 81.9 |
| Federal Funds Rate | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| FOMC Statement | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| FOMC Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 21:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Advance GDP q/q | 29 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT+3 | High | 3.2% | 1.5% |
Current EUR/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly interpretation: the trend state is bearish, the close sequence is mixed, and the reference close at 1.11924 is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle while remaining above D1 support and below D1 resistance. Momentum is mixed rather than uniformly confirming, whereas H4 is bearish and tactically leans in the same direction. Stable volatility suggests a measured environment, although scheduled USD and EUR events could alter the pace of level tests.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is conditional downside development within a bearish D1 structure, with 1.11603 and 1.11239 as the supplied support references. A base scenario remains plausible while price stays between the weekly support and resistance structure, reflecting mixed D1 momentum and a mixed close sequence. A bullish alternative would require recovery through the supplied resistance framework and stronger D1 confirmation.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would require a meaningful D1 recovery through the supplied resistance structure, with a completed D1 close above 1.1261 serving as the formal upper boundary for the bearish framework. The current D1 close remains below resistance, so this is an alternative rather than the leading weekly interpretation.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support to the bullish alternative if its current bearish positioning were replaced by a recovery through the supplied H4 resistance at 1.12036, followed by broader alignment with the D1 resistance structure. This would improve short-term timing evidence without independently changing the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 1.12684, 1.13431
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would be materially weakened if H4 remains below its EMA20 and EMA50 while price fails to develop through the supplied resistance structure, especially if D1 pressure returns toward 1.11603.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The consolidation scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and mixed momentum, including D1 MACD above its signal while both the MACD and RSI relationships retain negative context.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would support the base scenario if its bearish tactical pressure produces hesitation around the supplied H4 support at 1.11881 rather than a clear extension through the weekly support structure, while H4 remains below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle.
- Targets
- The base case is two-sided movement between the supplied weekly support at 1.11603 and primary resistance at 1.12335, with 1.11924 as the reference close and 1.11881 and 1.12036 as the supplied H4 support and resistance references.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would be materially weakened by a completed D1 close beyond the formal upper or lower structural boundaries, or by a decisive development through the supplied weekly support or resistance structure that removes the current two-sided balance.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario is supported by the bearish D1 trend, the reference close below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and the close below primary resistance at 1.12335 while remaining above primary support at 1.11603.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 already has a bearish tactical state, with H4 MACD below its signal, H4 MACD and histogram negative, H4 RSI below 50, and the close below H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. Further downside relevance would increase if this pressure carried through the supplied H4 support at 1.11881 toward the D1 support structure.
- Targets
- 1.11239
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would be materially weakened if price develops a D1 recovery through the supplied resistance structure and a completed D1 close above 1.1261, particularly if H4 also moves back above its supplied resistance at 1.12036.
EUR/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close sequence is mixed, which tempers the bearish trend reading rather than reversing it. The 1.11924 close remains below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the relation to weekly levels is also clear: D1 price is above support and below resistance. This places the market in a bearish structure with unresolved short-term balance.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 reinforces the weekly downside pressure rather than replacing the D1 thesis. H4 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, and H4 RSI is below 50. At the same time, H4 price is above H4 support at 1.11881 and below H4 resistance at 1.12036, so the tactical bearish condition still has nearby two-sided reference points.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical profile is bearish at the trend and tactical levels but mixed in momentum. D1 price remains below its principal moving averages and Bollinger middle, while D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive despite a negative MACD sign. H4 momentum is more consistently negative, and stable volatility describes the pace rather than the direction.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI36.62Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands31% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR60.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 41.97
D1 RSI is below 50 and H4 RSI is also below 50, so momentum remains weaker across both timeframes. This supports the bearish structure, but RSI alone does not resolve the mixed D1 close sequence or the conflicting D1 MACD relationship.
- D1 RSI
- 36.62
- H4 RSI
- 41.97
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, which provides a counterweight to the bearish D1 trend even though D1 MACD remains negative. H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and negative sign, giving the shorter timeframe a more consistently bearish momentum profile.
- MACD
- -0.006063
- Signal
- -0.007183
- Histogram
- 0.001119
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the Bollinger middle, consistent with the bearish trend structure, while H4 close is also below its Bollinger middle. The H4 close remains above H4 support, so the bands describe downside positioning without establishing that a support break must follow.
- Position in band
- 31%
- Band width
- 219.2 pips (1.95%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.13627Price is 170.3 pips below (-1.50%)
- 200 SMA falling1.15729Price is 380.5 pips below (-3.29%)
The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and both the EMA50 slope and SMA200 slope are falling, reinforcing the structural downside bias. H4 close is below EMA20 and EMA50, adding tactical alignment, although the weekly conclusion remains controlled by D1.
- D1 close
- 1.11924
- 50 EMA
- 1.13627
- 200 SMA
- 1.15729
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates that the current environment is not being classified as expanding or contracting. ATR therefore informs the expected pace and scale of potential level tests, but it does not provide directional confirmation.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00603 (0.54%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00231 (0.21%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis remains bearish because D1 trend, moving-average positioning and H4 tactical conditions are aligned, with 1.11603 and 1.11239 marking the supplied downside references. The strongest counterargument is mixed D1 momentum: MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, while the close sequence is mixed. A recovery through 1.12335 and 1.12684 would shift attention toward the bullish reference targets, but the formal bearish boundary is one completed D1 close above 1.1261.
View all live EUR/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11603 | Primary support | D1 | The reference close at 1.11924 is above this level, making it the first supplied downside structure within the weekly framework. |
| 1.11239 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the second supplied support and also the bearish reference target, so a move toward it would represent further downside development beyond primary support. |
| 1.12335 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close is below this level, which is also the D1 Bollinger middle and the first supplied resistance in the weekly structure. |
| 1.12684 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the second supplied resistance and the first bullish reference target, making it relevant if D1 recovery develops beyond primary resistance. |
| 1.11881 | H4 support | H4 | H4 price is above this tactical support while the H4 state remains bearish, making it an early reference for whether downside pressure is extending. |
| 1.12036 | H4 resistance | H4 | H4 price is below this tactical resistance, so recovery through it would provide short-term countertrend evidence without replacing the D1 weekly framework. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/USD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| FOMC Statement | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| FOMC Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 21:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Advance GDP q/q | 29 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT+3 | High | 1.5% | 3.2% |
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | 29 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Showing 5 of 14 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 16:56 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/USD economic calendar.
EUR/USD Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
EUR/USD enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 structure: the 1.11924 close is below the key D1 moving averages and Bollinger middle, while H4 also retains bearish tactical positioning. The first downside reference is 1.11603, followed by 1.11239, while 1.12335 and 1.12684 define the initial recovery barriers.
The bearish reading remains conditional because D1 momentum is mixed: MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, and the close sequence is mixed. Stable volatility supports a measured interpretation, but the dense USD and EUR calendar may accelerate repricing. One completed D1 close above 1.1261 would materially weaken the bearish structure.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive despite the bearish trend, so downside structure is not supported by uniformly aligned momentum.
- D1 and H4 level balance: The D1 close is above 1.11603 and H4 close is above 1.11881 while both remain below their relevant resistance references, leaving room for consolidation or tactical recovery.
- Concentrated event calendar: High-importance US and EUR policy and data events on 28–29 October may increase volatility and produce repricing that changes the pace of technical level tests.
- Bullish structural recovery: A completed D1 close above 1.1261 would materially weaken the current bearish structure and shift attention toward the supplied recovery framework.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12610. One completed D1 close below 1.11179 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish. D1 trend and price positioning remain negative, while H4 also has a bearish tactical state; mixed D1 momentum prevents treating the direction as certain.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/USD this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 pressure develops beneath the current range and toward the supplied support levels. A sustained recovery through the resistance structure would instead make the consolidation or bullish alternatives more relevant.
What are the key EUR/USD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.11603, secondary support is 1.11239, primary resistance is 1.12335 and secondary resistance is 1.12684. The supplied bearish reference target is 1.11239; bullish reference targets are 1.12684 and 1.13431.
What would invalidate this EUR/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12610.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 16:56 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
