Consecutive lower D1 closes, negative momentum and bearish H4 positioning keep the weekly structure pressured, while support proximity and scheduled AUD and EUR events may affect timing.
EUR/AUD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is Bearish as D1 structure, negative momentum and bearish H4 positioning align, although the close remains above support and event risk may delay movement.
EUR/AUD enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 structure defined by consecutive lower closes. The D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes reinforce the broader pressure. D1 MACD is below its signal, with both MACD and histogram negative, and D1 RSI is below 50.
The H4 chart confirms rather than contradicts the weekly direction: H4 is bearish, its MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, RSI is below 50, and the close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. However, both D1 and H4 closes remain above their supplied support reference, so continuation requires further structural deterioration rather than being assumed.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.61489
- T21.62268
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.59003
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.60936.
Selected key events
- CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Trimmed Mean CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.59160 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.59177 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.59117 |
| Secondary support | 1.59003 |
| Primary resistance | 1.60658 |
| Bullish targets | 1.61489, 1.62268 |
| Bearish targets | 1.59003 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.60936 — One completed D1 close above 1.60936 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
Live EUR/AUD Tools
A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.
- Live
Live chart & price
Watch EUR/AUD move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.
- Live
Technical signals
Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.
Economic calendar
Know what's coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.
Historical data
Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.
All EUR/AUD forecasts
Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.
EUR/AUD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/AUD during 24–31 October 2026 include RBA Gov Bullock Speaks, CPI m/m, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | 28 Oct 2026 03:15 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
Current EUR/AUD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: consecutive lower closes, a bearish trend state and negative momentum are reinforced by the close being below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. H4 is also bearish and therefore supports the direction tactically, but the D1 close remains above primary support. Stable volatility describes the trading environment rather than a directional signal, while the scheduled AUD and EUR events create potential timing and repricing risk.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/AUD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario is currently favored by aligned D1 structure and momentum, with H4 confirming the tactical direction. A neutral scenario remains credible while the D1 close holds above 1.59117 and 1.59003, creating two-sided risk near support. A bullish scenario would require a completed D1 close above 1.60936, followed by tactical improvement through the supplied H4 resistance context.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above 1.60936 would provide the supplied structural confirmation for a bullish alternative and would shift attention toward the permitted bullish reference targets at 1.61489 and 1.62268.
- H4 tactical signal
- A H4 close above 1.59965 would show that the current H4 resistance reference has been overcome, improving the tactical case for a move toward the supplied bullish reference targets, while D1 would still control the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 1.61489, 1.62268
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 remains below 1.59965 and D1 continues to close below 1.60658, leaving the higher-timeframe bearish structure unresolved.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A base scenario would be supported by continued D1 closes above 1.59117 without a completed D1 close above 1.60936, preserving two-sided trade between the supplied support and resistance references.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would need to remain tactically mixed around 1.59117 and 1.59965, rather than producing a sustained directional break, for consolidation to remain the dominant interpretation.
- Targets
- The neutral framework is the supplied range between support at 1.59117 and resistance at 1.60658, with 1.59003 and 1.61489 marking the next listed references outside those primary boundaries.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would weaken after a completed D1 close above 1.60936 or below 1.58205, because either move would resolve more of the existing two-sided uncertainty.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below 1.59117 would strengthen the bearish structural reading and leave 1.59003 as the permitted bearish reference target.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below 1.59117 would provide tactical confirmation that support pressure is developing, while the weekly interpretation would still depend on the D1 close sequence.
- Targets
- 1.59003
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if H4 reclaims 1.59965 and D1 subsequently closes above 1.60936, because that combination would challenge the current trend and momentum alignment.
EUR/AUD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
D1 shows consecutive lower closes, with the 1.59177 close above 1.59117 support and below 1.60658 resistance. The close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. This combination places the weekly structure under pressure, although support has not yet been lost on the supplied close.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bearish and reinforces the D1 direction: the close is below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, and H4 RSI is below 50. The close remains above H4 support at 1.59117 and below H4 resistance at 1.59965, so H4 currently confirms the bias but does not establish a completed support break.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The automated technical picture is aligned toward downside pressure: D1 and H4 are bearish, momentum is negative, MACD is below its signal on both timeframes, and price is below the listed moving-average and Bollinger-middle references. Stable volatility limits directional interpretation, while support proximity keeps the setup conditional.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI35.75Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands4% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR92.6 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 30.99
D1 RSI below 50 supports the negative momentum reading, while H4 RSI below 50 shows that the tactical timeframe is also not supplying a positive momentum counterweight. The RSI readings reinforce the existing structure rather than independently defining a new level or target.
- D1 RSI
- 35.75
- H4 RSI
- 30.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 and H4 MACD are each below their respective signals, and both histograms are negative. This provides cross-timeframe momentum confirmation for the bearish D1 structure, although MACD does not determine whether support will hold.
- MACD
- -0.005298
- Signal
- -0.003863
- Histogram
- -0.001435
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the Bollinger middle, consistent with the bearish structure, while the H4 close is also below its Bollinger middle. The supplied bands frame the current pressure and possible compression or expansion context, but they do not establish directional certainty.
- Position in band
- 4%
- Band width
- 399.9 pips (2.48%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.61553Price is 237.6 pips below (-1.47%)
- 200 SMA falling1.64124Price is 494.7 pips below (-3.01%)
The D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, with falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes adding structural weight to the bearish reading. H4 price is also below its EMA20 and EMA50, so the tactical chart is aligned rather than countertrend.
- D1 close
- 1.59177
- 50 EMA
- 1.61553
- 200 SMA
- 1.64124
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates an environment in which level tests may develop without volatility itself supplying a directional signal. ATR frames the observed trading conditions, while the weekly thesis remains dependent on D1 structure, momentum and the supplied support and resistance references.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00926 (0.58%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00386 (0.24%)
Technical conclusion: The principal technical thesis is bearish because D1 lower closes, negative momentum and bearish moving-average relationships are reinforced by a bearish H4 chart. The strongest counterargument is that both timeframe closes remain above 1.59117 support, leaving room for consolidation rather than confirming immediate continuation. The next supplied references are 1.59117 and 1.59003 below, with 1.60658 and 1.61489 above.
View all live EUR/AUD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/AUD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.59117 | Primary support | D1 and H4 | The D1 and H4 closes are above this support reference, so it is the first downside structure test for the bearish thesis and a key point of two-sided risk. |
| 1.59003 | Secondary support and permitted bearish target | D1 | This is the next supplied support reference below 1.59117 and the listed bearish target, so a move through primary support would bring it into focus. |
| 1.60658 | Primary resistance | D1 | The D1 close is below this resistance reference, which caps the immediate recovery framework and separates current price from the higher listed resistance levels. |
| 1.61489 | Secondary resistance and permitted bullish target | D1 | This is the next supplied resistance above 1.60658 and a permitted bullish reference target if the higher-timeframe structure improves. |
| 1.59965 | Tactical Resistance | H4 | Immediate H4 tactical resistance level. |
| 1.59117 | Tactical Support | H4 | Immediate H4 tactical support level. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/AUD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/AUD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 9 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 17:47 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/AUD economic calendar.
EUR/AUD Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
The balance of evidence remains bearish: D1 consecutive lower closes, negative MACD structure, RSI below 50 and price below the supplied moving-average and Bollinger-middle references are supported by a bearish H4 configuration. This is a coherent directional framework, but it is not a certainty because the D1 close remains above 1.59117 support and volatility is stable.
A completed D1 close below 1.59117 would strengthen the downside structure and place 1.59003 in focus as the permitted bearish target. Conversely, a completed D1 close above 1.60936 would invalidate the bearish thesis. AUD inflation and RBA communication on 28 Oct 2026, followed by ECB and German data from 29–30 Oct 2026, may alter timing through volatility or repricing.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Support retention: Both D1 and H4 closes are above 1.59117, leaving the bearish structure exposed to consolidation before any further downside development.
- Timeframe agreement masking timing risk: D1 and H4 are both bearish, but neither supplied timeframe has completed a break below 1.59117, so directional alignment does not establish immediate continuation.
- Scheduled AUD event cluster: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks and three high-importance Australian inflation releases occur on 28 Oct 2026, creating potential AUD volatility around the technical framework.
- Scheduled EUR event cluster: The ECB rate, statement and press conference on 29 Oct 2026, followed by German data on 30 Oct 2026, may create EUR repricing and change the speed of technical level tests.
- Stable volatility environment: Stable volatility may allow the market to remain contained or develop more slowly, so volatility conditions alone do not confirm the bearish direction.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.60936. One completed D1 close below 1.58205 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/AUD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/AUD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because D1 price structure and momentum are negative, with H4 providing tactical confirmation.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/AUD this week?
The primary bearish scenario would become more relevant if price action weakens through 1.59117 and the D1 structure continues to produce lower closes. A neutral range remains possible while the close holds above support, whereas a bullish alternative would require a completed D1 close above 1.60936.
What are the key EUR/AUD support and resistance levels?
The key weekly references are support at 1.59117 and 1.59003, with resistance at 1.60658 and 1.61489. The permitted bearish target is 1.59003; bullish reference targets are 1.61489 and 1.62268.
What would invalidate this EUR/AUD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.60936.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURAUD)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 17:47 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.30× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
