The weekly structure remains bearish, but positive D1 momentum signals and a bullish H4 configuration leave room for consolidation or a countertrend test before the larger directional picture is resolved.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is bearish, but bullish H4 positioning and mixed D1 momentum leave scope for consolidation or a countertrend test before support is challenged.
The D1 trend state is bearish, with the 0.70298 close above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200. That combination preserves a broader negative structure while showing that price is not uniformly weak across the available measures.
Momentum is mixed rather than fully aligned with the bearish trend: D1 RSI is above 50, D1 MACD is above its signal while both remain negative, and the histogram is positive. H4 adds countertrend pressure because its close is above both moving averages and its Bollinger middle, although H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative.
- Bullish targets
-
- T10.70868
- T20.71279
- Bearish targets
-
- T10.69776
- T20.69485
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 0.72409.
Selected key events
- CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Trimmed Mean CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 0.70350 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 0.70298 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 0.70027 |
| Secondary support | 0.69776 |
| Primary resistance | 0.70629 |
| Bullish targets | 0.70868, 0.71279 |
| Bearish targets | 0.69776, 0.69485 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 0.72409 — One completed D1 close above 0.72409 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/USD during 24–31 October 2026 include CB Consumer Confidence, RBA Gov Bullock Speaks, CPI m/m. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Consumer Confidence | 27 Oct 2026 17:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 80.5 | 81.9 |
| RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | 28 Oct 2026 03:15 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Current AUD/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: the trend state is bearish and the close sequence is mixed. The close is above D1 EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, but below D1 EMA50 and SMA200, while D1 momentum is mixed. H4 is bullish tactically, with the close above H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, so it complicates the bearish structure rather than replacing it.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is AUD/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is a bearish D1 framework with a possible progression through 0.70027 toward 0.69776 and 0.69485 if downside pressure develops. The countertrend scenario would require stronger bullish price action through 0.70629 and the permitted bullish reference targets at 0.70868 and 0.71279. A neutral scenario remains relevant while mixed D1 momentum and bullish H4 conditions keep price between the supplied levels.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain technical support from the D1 close remaining above the D1 EMA20 and Bollinger middle, provided the broader bearish trend state is challenged by stronger upward price action.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is already tactically bullish, with its close above H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. A move through the supplied H4 resistance at 0.70326 would provide a clearer tactical extension toward the D1 resistance framework, without changing the D1 hierarchy by itself.
- Targets
- 0.70868, 0.71279
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 loses its current support relationship and D1 remains below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200, leaving the broader trend structure unresolved to the downside.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and mixed momentum, with the close positioned above D1 EMA20 and the Bollinger middle but below D1 EMA50 and SMA200.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 can sustain the consolidation interpretation while its bullish positioning above H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle is offset by H4 MACD below its signal and a negative histogram.
- Targets
- The neutral path is a two-sided interaction between 0.70027 support and 0.70629 resistance, with 0.69776 and 0.70868 representing the next supplied reference levels if the range gives way.
- Scenario failure condition
- The range interpretation would weaken if D1 develops a decisive directional close beyond the supplied framework, particularly if the bearish structure extends through support or the bullish alternative progresses through resistance.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish thesis is supported by the D1 bearish trend state, the falling EMA50 slope, and the close below D1 EMA50 and SMA200. The mixed close sequence and positive D1 momentum signals keep the thesis conditional rather than one-directional.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bearish tactical shift would be more evident if H4 loses its support relationship at 0.70245 and its close no longer remains above the H4 moving averages and Bollinger middle. H4 alone would still provide timing context rather than determine the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 0.69776, 0.69485
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken if D1 price action moves through the resistance framework and the close no longer remains below D1 EMA50 and SMA200, especially alongside continued bullish H4 positioning.
AUD/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 0.70298 D1 close is above D1 support and below D1 resistance. It is above D1 EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, but below D1 EMA50 and SMA200. This mixed positioning aligns with the mixed close sequence: short-term price location is firmer than the broader trend structure, but the longer moving-average context remains bearish.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is bullish tactically: the 0.70298 close is above H4 support, EMA20, EMA50 and the Bollinger middle, while remaining below H4 resistance at 0.70326. However, H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative. H4 therefore supplies countertrend pressure and a possible delay, not an independent weekly reversal signal.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is mixed across timeframes. D1 is bearish with a mixed close sequence, while D1 RSI is above 50, MACD is above its signal, and the histogram is positive even though MACD remains negative. H4 is bullish in price location, but its MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram. Stable volatility suggests a measured environment rather than a directional conclusion.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI53.4Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands94% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR45.1 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 62.3
D1 RSI above 50 and H4 RSI above 50 show that momentum is not uniformly negative. This is the clearest counterweight to the bearish D1 trend, although RSI alone does not override the D1 moving-average structure.
- D1 RSI
- 53.4
- H4 RSI
- 62.3
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, while both remain in negative territory. H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative despite a positive MACD reading. The timeframe split supports a mixed momentum assessment rather than clean directional alignment.
- MACD
- -0.001438
- Signal
- -0.002765
- Histogram
- 0.001327
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is above the D1 Bollinger middle and below the upper band, while the H4 close is above the H4 Bollinger middle and below the upper band. This places both timeframes in the upper half of their respective supplied bands without establishing a directional outcome by itself.
- Position in band
- 94%
- Band width
- 122.3 pips (1.75%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling0.70316Price is 1.8 pips below (-0.03%)
- 200 SMA rising0.70504Price is 20.6 pips below (-0.29%)
The moving averages provide the strongest structural distinction between the timeframes. D1 price is above EMA20 but below EMA50 and SMA200, with the EMA50 slope falling and the SMA200 slope rising. H4 price is above both EMA20 and EMA50, reinforcing its tactical bullish state without displacing the D1 thesis.
- D1 close
- 0.70298
- 50 EMA
- 0.70316
- 200 SMA
- 0.70504
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates that the technical environment is not being classified as expanding or contracting. The D1 ATR provides context for the scale of potential movement, while the supplied structural levels remain the relevant references for scenario analysis.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00451 (0.64%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.0017 (0.24%)
Technical conclusion: The controlling evidence remains the bearish D1 trend, falling EMA50 slope and close below D1 EMA50 and SMA200. The strongest counterargument is the mixed D1 momentum combined with bullish H4 price positioning above its moving averages and Bollinger middle. The next technical interaction is defined by 0.70027 and 0.70629, with 0.69776 and 0.70868 extending the framework if either side gains traction.
View all live AUD/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70027 | Primary support | D1 | The reference close is above this first D1 support, making it the nearest supplied downside structure within the weekly framework. |
| 0.69776 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the second D1 support and the first permitted bearish reference target if downside pressure develops. |
| 0.70629 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference close is below this first D1 resistance, which defines the nearest upside barrier for the countertrend scenario. |
| 0.70868 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This second D1 resistance is also a permitted bullish reference target and marks the next upside extension beyond 0.70629. |
| 0.70245 | Tactical support | H4 | H4 is currently above this support, so a loss of the level would reduce the strength of the bullish tactical configuration. |
| 0.70326 | Tactical resistance | H4 | H4 remains below this resistance, making it the immediate tactical barrier within the bullish H4 configuration. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/USD This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| FOMC Statement | 28 Oct 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 13 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 16:43 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/USD economic calendar.
AUD/USD Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
The weekly thesis remains bearish because D1 is the controlling timeframe and its trend state, falling EMA50 slope and close below EMA50 and SMA200 point to a weaker structural backdrop. That case is moderated by the close above EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, positive D1 momentum readings and a bullish H4 configuration.
The key decision area is bounded by 0.70027 support and 0.70629 resistance. Movement through those supplied levels would make the corresponding scenario more relevant, while the dense Australian and US event calendar may increase repricing risk without providing a predetermined direction. The formal upper boundary for the bearish thesis is one completed D1 close above 0.72409.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 and H4 disagreement: D1 is bearish while H4 is bullish, so short-term price strength may delay or complicate development of the weekly bearish scenario.
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 RSI is above 50, MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, which reduces the alignment between momentum and the bearish trend state.
- Event concentration: Australian inflation and RBA communication are scheduled on 28 Oct 2026, followed by major USD policy, growth, inflation and labour events through 30 Oct 2026; this may increase volatility around existing levels.
- Stable volatility environment: Stable volatility may allow the mixed signals to persist and produce slower scenario development rather than an immediate directional resolution.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 0.72409. One completed D1 close below 0.69710 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because the controlling D1 trend remains bearish and the close is below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200, despite mixed momentum and bullish H4 conditions.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/USD this week?
The primary bearish scenario would become more relevant if D1 weakness develops toward 0.70027 and then 0.69776. A sustained two-sided range remains plausible while H4 stays bullish and D1 momentum remains mixed.
What are the key AUD/USD support and resistance levels?
The key levels are 0.70027 and 0.69776 on the support side, with 0.70629 and 0.70868 as resistance. The permitted bearish reference targets are 0.69776 and 0.69485; the bullish references are 0.70868 and 0.71279.
What would invalidate this AUD/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 0.72409.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 16:43 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
