Bearish D1 structure remains the weekly anchor, while bullish H4 positioning and upcoming euro-area and New Zealand events create two-sided tactical risk.
EUR/NZD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
Bearish D1 structure leads the week, although bullish H4 positioning and neutral aggregate momentum leave room for consolidation before any directional extension.
The weekly thesis remains bearish because the D1 trend state is bearish and the close sequence is mixed rather than decisively directional. D1 momentum is soft: RSI is below 50, MACD is below its signal, the MACD is negative and its histogram is negative. The close is also below EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and the Bollinger middle, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling.
That D1 alignment is not fully immediate because H4 is bullish. H4 RSI is above 50, the H4 close is above EMA20, EMA50 and the Bollinger middle, and it is above H4 support while below H4 resistance. However, H4 MACD remains below its signal and its histogram is negative, so the shorter timeframe offers tactical support without replacing the D1-led weekly framework.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.99663
- T22.00369
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.9627
- T21.95662
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 2.00690.
Selected key events
- Employment Change q/q4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3High
- Unemployment Rate4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3High
- Parliamentary Elections6 Nov 2026 (All Day)High
| Price at last update | 1.98144 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:55 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.97956 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.97005 |
| Secondary support | 1.96270 |
| Primary resistance | 1.99039 |
| Bullish targets | 1.99663, 2.00369 |
| Bearish targets | 1.9627, 1.95662 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 2.00690 — One completed D1 close above 2.00690 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/NZD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/NZD during 31 October–7 November 2026 include Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change q/q | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 5 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Current EUR/NZD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly interpretation: its bearish trend, falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, negative momentum readings and close below the principal D1 averages point to downside pressure, while the mixed close sequence prevents a one-sided reading. H4 is tactically bullish, with price above its short moving averages and Bollinger middle, but its MACD remains below signal with a negative histogram. Expanding volatility means level tests may develop more quickly or cover a larger range, without providing direction by itself.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbullishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumneutralRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilityexpandingD1 ATR change
Is EUR/NZD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The favored scenario is a D1-led bearish continuation or renewed downside pressure if the market remains below 1.99039 and the H4 recovery loses support. A genuine base case is two-sided consolidation between the supplied support and resistance areas while D1 and H4 remain opposed. The bullish alternative requires the H4 recovery to extend through 1.99039 and 1.99663, with the D1 structure then needing reassessment before 2.00369 becomes relevant.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish weekly interpretation would become more relevant if price action progresses through the supplied resistance sequence at 1.99039 and 1.99663, reducing the current D1 pressure below its moving averages and Bollinger middle.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 is already bullish tactically; a move through H4 resistance at 1.98038 would provide additional short-term confirmation, while progress through 1.99039 would connect that recovery with the weekly resistance framework.
- Targets
- 1.99663, 2.00369
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 loses its support context at 1.97885 and the market returns toward D1 support at 1.97005, particularly while D1 momentum remains negative.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The consolidation scenario is supported by the mixed D1 close sequence and neutral momentum state, with the D1 close positioned above primary support at 1.97005 and below primary resistance at 1.99039.
- H4 tactical signal
- The base case remains plausible while bullish H4 price positioning above 1.97885 and below 1.98038 fails to develop into a broader resistance break and D1 pressure does not produce a decisive level resolution.
- Targets
- The relevant two-sided framework is bounded by primary support at 1.97005 and primary resistance at 1.99039, with secondary reference levels at 1.9627 and 1.99663.
- Scenario failure condition
- The range scenario would weaken if price action develops a clear move beyond the supplied weekly resistance sequence or moves through the supplied support sequence while the opposing timeframe fails to recover.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish thesis would gain technical confirmation if D1 pressure carries price through primary support at 1.97005, bringing secondary support at 1.9627 and then 1.95662 into focus.
- H4 tactical signal
- A bearish tactical shift would be suggested if H4 loses support at 1.97885 while its existing MACD-below-signal and negative-histogram conditions persist, allowing the D1 structure to regain control.
- Targets
- 1.9627, 1.95662
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if the H4 recovery holds above 1.97885 and progresses through 1.99039, especially if the market then reaches secondary resistance at 1.99663.
EUR/NZD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close is 1.97956, above primary support at 1.97005 and below primary resistance at 1.99039. It is below EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and the Bollinger middle, while the mixed close sequence shows that bearish structure is present without a uniformly directional close pattern.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 provides a counterweight to the D1 thesis. Its close is above H4 EMA20, EMA50, Bollinger middle and H4 support at 1.97885, but below H4 resistance at 1.98038. H4 RSI is above 50, while H4 MACD is below its signal and its histogram is negative. This is tactical support with incomplete momentum confirmation, so H4 can delay or moderate the D1 bearish path but does not replace it.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is mixed across timeframes: D1 is bearish with a mixed close sequence, negative momentum and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, while H4 is bullish in price positioning. Expanding volatility raises the prospect of faster tests of the supplied levels, but does not determine whether support or resistance gives way first.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI46.45Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands39% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR118.7 pipsExpanding
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 52.27
D1 RSI is below 50, supporting the broader bearish momentum reading, while H4 RSI is above 50 and supports the tactical recovery. The split reinforces timeframe conflict rather than a clean single-direction signal.
- D1 RSI
- 46.45
- H4 RSI
- 52.27
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD is below its signal, with a negative MACD and negative histogram, supporting the bearish weekly structure. H4 MACD is positive but below its signal and has a negative histogram, indicating that H4 price strength is not fully confirmed by its momentum configuration.
- MACD
- -0.005359
- Signal
- -0.004719
- Histogram
- -0.00064
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the D1 Bollinger middle, consistent with the bearish structure. H4 price is above the H4 Bollinger middle, supporting the tactical bullish condition. Expanding volatility makes these opposing timeframe positions more relevant for level-test speed, not directional certainty.
- Position in band
- 39%
- Band width
- 529.8 pips (2.67%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.98535Price is 57.9 pips below (-0.29%)
- 200 SMA falling1.98222Price is 26.6 pips below (-0.13%)
D1 price is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling, creating the strongest trend evidence in the weekly framework. H4 price is above EMA20 and EMA50, which explains the tactical recovery and its tension with D1.
- D1 close
- 1.97956
- 50 EMA
- 1.98535
- 200 SMA
- 1.98222
ATR (14)
Expanding volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Expanding volatility describes an environment in which movement and level tests may develop more quickly or with wider swings. ATR does not establish direction, so it reinforces the need to interpret the supplied support, resistance and invalidation boundaries through the D1 structure.
- D1 ATR
- 0.01187 (0.60%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00561 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The principal evidence remains D1 bearish: price is below the D1 moving averages and Bollinger middle, D1 RSI is below 50, MACD is below signal with negative readings, and the longer moving-average slopes are falling. The strongest counterargument is bullish H4 positioning above its short averages, Bollinger middle and support, although H4 MACD remains below signal with a negative histogram. The next structural references are 1.97005 and 1.9627 below, and 1.99039 and 1.99663 above; expanding volatility and the scheduled events increase the importance of conditional level behavior.
View all live EUR/NZD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/NZD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97005 | Primary support | D1 | The D1 close is above this support, making it the first downside reference for assessing whether the bearish structure is gaining traction. |
| 1.9627 | Secondary support | D1 | A move through primary support would bring this lower structural reference into focus within the bearish scenario. |
| 1.99039 | Primary resistance | D1 | The D1 close is below this resistance, and progress through it would challenge the immediate bearish pressure. |
| 1.99663 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This level is the next resistance reference after 1.99039 and also appears as the first bullish target candidate. |
| 1.97885 | H4 support | H4 | H4 price is above this support, so its retention helps preserve the tactical bullish counterweight to the D1 thesis. |
| 1.98038 | H4 resistance | H4 | H4 price is below this resistance, making it the immediate tactical ceiling for the bullish H4 condition. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/NZD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/NZD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change q/q | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4 Nov 2026 00:45 GMT+3 | High | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| Parliamentary Elections | 6 Nov 2026 (All Day) | High | — | — |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 3.8% | 4.0% |
Showing 5 of 6 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:28 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/NZD economic calendar.
EUR/NZD Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
The D1 structure keeps the weekly reading bearish: the close is below the principal D1 averages and Bollinger middle, D1 momentum is negative in direction, and both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. The first downside references are 1.97005 and 1.9627, while 1.95662 is the next supplied support reference.
The forecast is conditional because H4 remains bullish in price positioning, with the close above H4 support, EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, despite H4 MACD remaining below signal with a negative histogram. Resistance at 1.99039 and 1.99663 therefore matters for any tactical recovery, while the 4 November, 5 November and 6 November events may increase repricing risk around the existing framework.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1-H4 timeframe disagreement: D1 is bearish while H4 is bullish, so the shorter timeframe may delay or temporarily oppose the weekly structure before the next level test develops.
- Mixed D1 close sequence: The mixed sequence reduces the clarity of immediate continuation even though the D1 trend and moving-average relationships remain bearish.
- Incomplete H4 momentum confirmation: H4 RSI and price positioning are bullish, but H4 MACD is below signal and its histogram is negative, creating uncertainty around the durability of the tactical recovery.
- Expanding volatility: Expanding volatility may increase the speed or breadth of tests of 1.97005, 1.99039 and the surrounding supplied levels without identifying the direction of resolution.
- Scheduled event repricing: High-impact NZD labour data and parliamentary elections, alongside euro-area inflation data and ECB communication, may produce two-sided volatility around the technical framework.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 2.00690. One completed D1 close below 1.95876 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/NZD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/NZD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish, led by the D1 trend, negative D1 momentum and the close below the D1 moving averages and Bollinger middle.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/NZD this week?
The primary alternative is consolidation or a tactical recovery while H4 remains bullish. A move through 1.99039 and then 1.99663 would make the bullish scenario more relevant, while a move toward 1.97005 and 1.9627 would strengthen the bearish path.
What are the key EUR/NZD support and resistance levels?
The main weekly levels are support at 1.97005 and 1.9627, followed by 1.95662, with resistance at 1.99039 and 1.99663, followed by 2.00369.
What would invalidate this EUR/NZD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 2.00690.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURNZD)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:55 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:28 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.00× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
